Daily Papers

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, challenging established forecasting methods. Here, we present a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for the German-Luxembourg day-ahead electricity prices addressing these challenges. The recurrent structure of the LSTM allows the model to adapt to trends, while the joint prediction of both mean and standard deviation enables a probabilistic prediction. Using a physics-inspired approach - superstatistics - to derive an explanation for the statistics of prices, we show that the LSTM model faithfully reproduces both prices and their volatility.

We introduce the Polymarket-v1 Database: the complete on-chain trade archive of Polymarket's first-generation CTF Exchange on Polygon, spanning 2022-11-21 to 2026-04-28 and covering the full contract lifecycle from first settlement to natural termination. The dataset comprises 1.20 billion trade records across 1.30 million markets with $61 billion in nominal volume. Its defining feature is 100% ground-truth aggressor direction derived from the blockchain settlement layer, a property unavailable in existing prediction market archives, which rely on heuristic inference. We use this truth-aligned archive to benchmark standard microstructure tools and document three findings. First, the tick rule and bulk volume classification achieve near-random aggregate accuracy (49.83% and 50.51%), but this masks a systematic, correctable price-level gradient driven by positive trade direction autocorrelation and concentrated market-making -- two structural features of prediction markets that violate the mean-reversion assumption embedded in classical classifiers. Second, these classification errors propagate into downstream metrics: inferred VPIN diverges substantially from ground-truth VPIN, and OFI estimates are directionally biased, with material consequences for Transaction Cost Analysis. Third, ground-truth microstructure quality predicts forecasting performance in ways that classification-based proxies cannot recover: True VPIN positively predicts Brier scores, while Gibbs spread negatively predicts them -- a selection effect reflecting that high-spread niche markets attract informed specialists rather than noise traders. Replacing ground-truth metrics with classified proxies attenuates both relationships, illustrating that measurement accuracy at the transaction level is a prerequisite for reliable inference about prediction market design and probability calibration.

Dynamic pricing in retail requires policies that adapt to shifting demand while coordinating decisions across related products. We present a systematic empirical study of multi-agent reinforcement learning for retail price optimization, comparing a strong MAPPO baseline with a graph-attention-augmented variant (MAPPO+GAT) that leverages learned interactions among products. Using a simulated pricing environment derived from real transaction data, we evaluate profit, stability across random seeds, fairness across products, and training efficiency under a standardized evaluation protocol. The results indicate that MAPPO provides a robust and reproducible foundation for portfolio-level price control, and that MAPPO+GAT further enhances performance by sharing information over the product graph without inducing excessive price volatility. These results indicate that graph-integrated MARL provides a more scalable and stable solution than independent learners for dynamic retail pricing, offering practical advantages in multi-product decision-making.

The stock market is extremely difficult to predict in the short term due to high market volatility, changes caused by news, and the non-linear nature of the financial time series. This research proposes a novel framework for improving minute-level prediction accuracy using semantic sentiment scores from top ten different large language models (LLMs) combined with minute interval intraday stock price data. We systematically constructed a time-aligned dataset of AAPL news articles and 1-minute Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock prices for the dates of April 4 to May 2, 2025. The sentiment analysis was achieved using the DeepSeek-V3, GPT variants, LLaMA, Claude, Gemini, Qwen, and Mistral models through their APIs. Each article obtained sentiment scores from all ten LLMs, which were scaled to a [0, 1] range and combined with prices and technical indicators like RSI, ROC, and Bollinger Band Width. Two state-of-the-art such as Reformer and Mamba were trained separately on the dataset using the sentiment scores produced by each LLM as input. Hyper parameters were optimized by means of Optuna and were evaluated through a 3-day evaluation period. Reformer had mean squared error (MSE) or the evaluation metrics, and it should be noted that Mamba performed not only faster but also better than Reformer for every LLM across the 10 LLMs tested. Mamba performed best with LLaMA 3.3--70B, with the lowest error of 0.137. While Reformer could capture broader trends within the data, the model appeared to over smooth sudden changes by the LLMs. This study highlights the potential of integrating LLM-based semantic analysis paired with efficient temporal modeling to enhance real-time financial forecasting.

In the rapidly evolving realm of artificial intelligence, deploying large language models (LLMs) poses increasingly pressing computational and environmental challenges. This paper introduces MELODI - Monitoring Energy Levels and Optimization for Data-driven Inference - a multifaceted framework crafted to monitor and analyze the energy consumed during LLM inference processes. MELODI enables detailed observations of power consumption dynamics and facilitates the creation of a comprehensive dataset reflective of energy efficiency across varied deployment scenarios. The dataset, generated using MELODI, encompasses a broad spectrum of LLM deployment frameworks, multiple language models, and extensive prompt datasets, enabling a comparative analysis of energy use. Using the dataset, we investigate how prompt attributes, including length and complexity, correlate with energy expenditure. Our findings indicate substantial disparities in energy efficiency, suggesting ample scope for optimization and adoption of sustainable measures in LLM deployment. Our contribution lies not only in the MELODI framework but also in the novel dataset, a resource that can be expanded by other researchers. Thus, MELODI is a foundational tool and dataset for advancing research into energy-conscious LLM deployment, steering the field toward a more sustainable future.

Many examples of cooperation exist in biology. In chemical systems however, which can sometimes be quite complex, we do not appear to observe intricate cooperative interactions. A key question for the origin of life, is then how can molecular cooperation first arise in an abiotic system prior to the emergence of biological replication. We postulate that selection at the molecular level is a driving force behind the complexification of chemical systems, particularly during the origins of life. In the theory of multilevel selection the two selective forces are: within-group and between-group, where the former tends to favor "selfish" replication of individuals and the latter favor cooperation between individuals enhancing the replication of the group as a whole. These forces can be quantified using the Price equation, which is a standard tool used in evolutionary biology to quantify evolutionary change. Our central claim is that replication and heredity in chemical systems are subject to selection, and quantifiable using the multilevel Price equation. We demonstrate this using the Graded Autocatalysis Replication Domain computer model, describing simple protocell composed out of molecules and its replication, which respectively analogue to the group and the individuals. In contrast to previous treatments of this model, we treat the lipid molecules themselves as replicating individuals and the protocells they form as groups of individuals. Our goal is to demonstrate how evolutionary biology tools and concepts can be applied in chemistry and we suggest that molecular cooperation may arise as a result of group selection. Further, the biological relation of parent-progeny is proposed to be analogue to the reactant-product relation in chemistry, thus allowing for tools from evolutionary biology to be applied to chemistry and would deepen the connection between chemistry and biology.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have recently been proposed as a pathway toward generalist robotic policies capable of interpreting natural language and visual inputs to generate manipulation actions. However, their effectiveness and efficiency on structured, long-horizon manipulation tasks remain unclear. In this work, we present a head-to-head empirical comparison between a fine-tuned open-weight VLA model π0 and a neuro-symbolic architecture that combines PDDL-based symbolic planning with learned low-level control. We evaluate both approaches on structured variants of the Towers of Hanoi manipulation task in simulation while measuring both task performance and energy consumption during training and execution. On the 3-block task, the neuro-symbolic model achieves 95% success compared to 34% for the best-performing VLA. The neuro-symbolic model also generalizes to an unseen 4-block variant (78% success), whereas both VLAs fail to complete the task. During training, VLA fine-tuning consumes nearly two orders of magnitude more energy than the neuro-symbolic approach. These results highlight important trade-offs between end-to-end foundation-model approaches and structured reasoning architectures for long-horizon robotic manipulation, emphasizing the role of explicit symbolic structure in improving reliability, data efficiency, and energy efficiency. Code and models are available at https://price-is-not-right.github.io

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.

Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal propositions in the literature demonstrating accurate modeling of the predictive systems that can enable us to predict stock prices with a very high level of accuracy. In this paper, we present a suite of deep learning-based regression models that yields a very high level of accuracy in stock price prediction. To build our predictive models, we use the historical stock price data of a well-known company listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India during the period December 31, 2012 to January 9, 2015. The stock prices are recorded at five minutes intervals of time during each working day in a week. Using these extremely granular stock price data, we build four convolutional neural network (CNN) and five long- and short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning models for accurate forecasting of the future stock prices. We provide detailed results on the forecasting accuracies of all our proposed models based on their execution time and their root mean square error (RMSE) values.

Stock price prediction is a challenging task and a lot of propositions exist in the literature in this area. Portfolio construction is a process of choosing a group of stocks and investing in them optimally to maximize the return while minimizing the risk. Since the time when Markowitz proposed the Modern Portfolio Theory, several advancements have happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. An investor can get the best benefit out of the stock market if the investor invests in an efficient portfolio and could take the buy or sell decision in advance, by estimating the future asset value of the portfolio with a high level of precision. In this project, we have built an efficient portfolio and to predict the future asset value by means of individual stock price prediction of the stocks in the portfolio. As part of building an efficient portfolio we have studied multiple portfolio optimization methods beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built the minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the five chosen sectors by using past daily stock prices over the past five years as the training data, and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. A comparative study of minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio with equal weight portfolio is done by backtesting.

Large language models (LLMs) generalize smoothly across continuous semantic spaces, yet strict logical reasoning demands the formation of discrete decision boundaries. Prevailing theories relying on linear isometric projections fail to resolve this fundamental tension. In this work, we argue that task context operates as a non-isometric dynamical operator that enforces a necessary "topological distortion." By applying Gram-Schmidt decomposition to residual-stream activations , we reveal a dual-modulation mechanism driving this process: a class-agnostic topological preservation that anchors global structure to prevent semantic collapse, and a specific algebraic divergence that directionally tears apart cross-class concepts to forge logical boundaries. We validate this geometric evolution across a gradient of tasks, from simple mapping to complex primality testing. Crucially, targeted specific vector ablation establishes a strict causal binding between this topology and model function: algebraically erasing the divergence component collapses parity classification accuracy from 100% to chance levels (38.57%). Furthermore, we uncover a three-phase layer-wise geometric dynamic and demonstrate that under social pressure prompts, models fail to generate sufficient divergence. This results in a "manifold entanglement" that geometrically explains sycophancy and hallucination. Ultimately, our findings revise the linear-isometric presumption, demonstrating that the emergence of discrete logic in LLMs is purchased at an irreducible cost of topological deformation.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference approach to study the causal effect of home field advantage in English Premier League. We develop a hierarchical causal model and show that both league level and team level causal effects are identifiable and can be conveniently estimated. We further develop an inference procedure for the proposed estimators and demonstrate its excellent numerical performance via simulation studies. We implement our method on the 2020-21 English Premier League data and assess the causal effect of home advantage on eleven summary statistics that measure the offensive and defensive performance and referee bias. We find that the home field advantage resides more heavily in offensive statistics than it does in defensive or referee statistics. We also find evidence that teams that had lower rankings retain a higher home field advantage.

Inducing and leveraging sparse activations during training and inference is a promising avenue for improving the computational efficiency of deep networks, which is increasingly important as network sizes continue to grow and their application becomes more widespread. Here we use the large width Gaussian process limit to analyze the behaviour, at random initialization, of nonlinear activations that induce sparsity in the hidden outputs. A previously unreported form of training instability is proven for arguably two of the most natural candidates for hidden layer sparsification; those being a shifted ReLU (phi(x)=max(0, x-tau) for tauge 0) and soft thresholding (phi(x)=0 for |x|letau and x-sign(x)tau for |x|>tau). We show that this instability is overcome by clipping the nonlinear activation magnitude, at a level prescribed by the shape of the associated Gaussian process variance map. Numerical experiments verify the theory and show that the proposed magnitude clipped sparsifying activations can be trained with training and test fractional sparsity as high as 85\% while retaining close to full accuracy.

Image matting is a fundamental computer vision problem and has many applications. Previous algorithms have poor performance when an image has similar foreground and background colors or complicated textures. The main reasons are prior methods 1) only use low-level features and 2) lack high-level context. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning based algorithm that can tackle both these problems. Our deep model has two parts. The first part is a deep convolutional encoder-decoder network that takes an image and the corresponding trimap as inputs and predict the alpha matte of the image. The second part is a small convolutional network that refines the alpha matte predictions of the first network to have more accurate alpha values and sharper edges. In addition, we also create a large-scale image matting dataset including 49300 training images and 1000 testing images. We evaluate our algorithm on the image matting benchmark, our testing set, and a wide variety of real images. Experimental results clearly demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm over previous methods.

We present Cutie, a video object segmentation (VOS) network with object-level memory reading, which puts the object representation from memory back into the video object segmentation result. Recent works on VOS employ bottom-up pixel-level memory reading which struggles due to matching noise, especially in the presence of distractors, resulting in lower performance in more challenging data. In contrast, Cutie performs top-down object-level memory reading by adapting a small set of object queries. Via those, it interacts with the bottom-up pixel features iteratively with a query-based object transformer (qt, hence Cutie). The object queries act as a high-level summary of the target object, while high-resolution feature maps are retained for accurate segmentation. Together with foreground-background masked attention, Cutie cleanly separates the semantics of the foreground object from the background. On the challenging MOSE dataset, Cutie improves by 8.7 J&F over XMem with a similar running time and improves by 4.2 J&F over DeAOT while being three times faster. Code is available at: https://hkchengrex.github.io/Cutie

Hierarchical segmentation entails creating segmentations at varying levels of granularity. We introduce the first hierarchical semantic segmentation dataset with subpart annotations for natural images, which we call SPIN (SubPartImageNet). We also introduce two novel evaluation metrics to evaluate how well algorithms capture spatial and semantic relationships across hierarchical levels. We benchmark modern models across three different tasks and analyze their strengths and weaknesses across objects, parts, and subparts. To facilitate community-wide progress, we publicly release our dataset at https://joshmyersdean.github.io/spin/index.html.

Training data for video segmentation are expensive to annotate. This impedes extensions of end-to-end algorithms to new video segmentation tasks, especially in large-vocabulary settings. To 'track anything' without training on video data for every individual task, we develop a decoupled video segmentation approach (DEVA), composed of task-specific image-level segmentation and class/task-agnostic bi-directional temporal propagation. Due to this design, we only need an image-level model for the target task (which is cheaper to train) and a universal temporal propagation model which is trained once and generalizes across tasks. To effectively combine these two modules, we use bi-directional propagation for (semi-)online fusion of segmentation hypotheses from different frames to generate a coherent segmentation. We show that this decoupled formulation compares favorably to end-to-end approaches in several data-scarce tasks including large-vocabulary video panoptic segmentation, open-world video segmentation, referring video segmentation, and unsupervised video object segmentation. Code is available at: https://hkchengrex.github.io/Tracking-Anything-with-DEVA

We report on Quantinuum Helios, a 98-qubit trapped-ion quantum processor based on the quantum charge-coupled device (QCCD) architecture. Helios features ^{137}Ba^{+} hyperfine qubits, all-to-all connectivity enabled by a rotatable ion storage ring connecting two quantum operation regions by a junction, speed improvements from parallelized operations, and a new software stack with real-time compilation of dynamic programs. Averaged over all operational zones in the system, we achieve average infidelities of 2.5(1)times10^{-5} for single-qubit gates, 7.9(2)times10^{-4} for two-qubit gates, and 4.8(6)times10^{-4} for state preparation and measurement, none of which are fundamentally limited and likely able to be improved. These component infidelities are predictive of system-level performance in both random Clifford circuits and random circuit sampling, the latter demonstrating that Helios operates well beyond the reach of classical simulation and establishes a new frontier of fidelity and complexity for quantum computers.

We describe an analysis comparing the pp elastic cross section as measured by the D0 Collaboration at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV to that in pp collisions as measured by the TOTEM Collaboration at 2.76, 7, 8, and 13 TeV using a model-independent approach. The TOTEM cross sections extrapolated to a center-of-mass energy of s = 1.96 TeV are compared with the D0 measurement in the region of the diffractive minimum and the second maximum of the pp cross section. The two data sets disagree at the 3.4σ level and thus provide evidence for the t-channel exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound, also known as the odderon. We combine these results with a TOTEM analysis of the same C-odd exchange based on the total cross section and the ratio of the real to imaginary parts of the forward elastic scattering amplitude in pp scattering. The combined significance of these results is larger than 5σ and is interpreted as the first observation of the exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound.

Wu et al. (2026) showed that most frontier large language models (LLMs) recommend a sponsored, roughly twice-as-expensive flight when their system prompt contains a soft sponsorship cue. We reproduce their evaluation on ten open-weight chat models plus the two of their twenty-three models that are still reachable today (gpt-3.5-turbo, gpt-4o). All reported rates in this paper are produced under the same judge the original paper used (gpt-4o); we additionally store every label under an open-weight (gpt-oss-120b) and a smaller proprietary (gpt-4o-mini) judge for an ablation. Three findings emerge. First, a prose description of an LLM evaluation pipeline is not, on its own, sufficient for accurate reproduction: we surfaced three silent implementation failures that each shifted a reported rate by tens of percentage points. Second, the central claims do generalise - the gpt-3.5-turbo logistic-regression intercept of alpha = 0.81 is within four points of the original alpha = 0.86, and 200 of 200 trials on gpt-3.5-turbo and gpt-4o promote a payday lender to a financially distressed user. Third, a thirty-token user prompt that asks the assistant for a neutral comparison table first cuts sponsored recommendation from 46.9% to 1.0% averaged across our ten open-source models, and from 53.0% to 0% averaged across the two OpenAI models. AI literacy and price-comparison portals are likely market-level mitigations; the harmful-product cell is bounded by neither. Raw data, labels and analysis scripts are at https://github.com/akmaier/Paper-LLM-Ads .

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

In this paper, we introduce an event-driven trading strategy that predicts stock movements by detecting corporate events from news articles. Unlike existing models that utilize textual features (e.g., bag-of-words) and sentiments to directly make stock predictions, we consider corporate events as the driving force behind stock movements and aim to profit from the temporary stock mispricing that may occur when corporate events take place. The core of the proposed strategy is a bi-level event detection model. The low-level event detector identifies events' existences from each token, while the high-level event detector incorporates the entire article's representation and the low-level detected results to discover events at the article-level. We also develop an elaborately-annotated dataset EDT for corporate event detection and news-based stock prediction benchmark. EDT includes 9721 news articles with token-level event labels as well as 303893 news articles with minute-level timestamps and comprehensive stock price labels. Experiments on EDT indicate that the proposed strategy outperforms all the baselines in winning rate, excess returns over the market, and the average return on each transaction.

We propose an interpretable machine learning framework to help identify trade data discrepancies that are challenging to detect with traditional methods. Our system analyzes trade data to find a novel inverse price-volume signature, a pattern where reported volumes increase as average unit prices decrease. The model achieves 0.9375 accuracy and was validated by comparing large-scale UN data with detailed firm-level data, confirming that the risk signatures are consistent. This scalable tool provides customs authorities with a transparent, data-driven method to shift from conventional to priority-based inspection protocols, translating complex data into actionable intelligence to support international environmental policies.

Vision-language models (VLMs) show great promise for 3D scene understanding but are mainly applied to indoor spaces or autonomous driving, focusing on low-level tasks like segmentation. This work expands their use to urban-scale environments by leveraging 3D reconstructions from multi-view aerial imagery. We propose OpenCity3D, an approach that addresses high-level tasks, such as population density estimation, building age classification, property price prediction, crime rate assessment, and noise pollution evaluation. Our findings highlight OpenCity3D's impressive zero-shot and few-shot capabilities, showcasing adaptability to new contexts. This research establishes a new paradigm for language-driven urban analytics, enabling applications in planning, policy, and environmental monitoring. See our project page: opencity3d.github.io

Travel planning is a realistic task for evaluating the planning and tool-use abilities of LLM agents. However, existing benchmarks typically assume only a single user, thereby avoiding one of the most challenging aspects of real-world scenarios: an agent's ability to identify and resolve conflicts among multiple users. To address this gap, we introduce GroupTravelBench, the first benchmark for multi-user, multi-turn travel planning. Based on real user profiles, POI data, and ticket price data, we synthesize 650 tasks and divide them into three difficulty levels. Beyond standard abilities in single-user itinerary planning, such as multi-step reasoning and tool use, our benchmark further evaluates three key capabilities required for travel agents: (i) elicitation -- proactively engaging in multi-turn dialogue to gather preferences from each user; (ii) coordination -- resolving conflicts among users through compromise or subgrouping strategies; and (iii) planning -- searching for travel plans that maximize overall group utility while maintaining fairness and feasibility. To simulate real-world conversational itinerary planning while enabling reliable tool use and offline evaluation, we build an interactive sandbox environment with cached real-world tool data. We evaluate a wide range of LLMs and find that even frontier models still show substantial weaknesses in preference coverage and group fairness. GroupTravelBench provides a practical and reproducible benchmark for advancing research on LLM agents for real-world travel planning.

Recent developments in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for selecting relevant tools from a tool knowledge base enable LLM agents to scale their complex tool calling capabilities to hundreds or thousands of external tools, APIs, or agents-as-tools. However, traditional RAG-based tool retrieval fails to capture structured dependencies between tools, limiting the retrieval accuracy of a retrieved tool's dependencies. For example, among a vector database of tools, a "get stock price" API requires a "stock ticker" parameter from a "get stock ticker" API, and both depend on OS-level internet connectivity tools. In this paper, we address this limitation by introducing Graph RAG-Tool Fusion, a novel plug-and-play approach that combines the strengths of vector-based retrieval with efficient graph traversal to capture all relevant tools (nodes) along with any nested dependencies (edges) within the predefined tool knowledge graph. We also present ToolLinkOS, a new tool selection benchmark of 573 fictional tools, spanning over 15 industries, each with an average of 6.3 tool dependencies. We demonstrate that Graph RAG-Tool Fusion achieves absolute improvements of 71.7% and 22.1% over na\"ive RAG on ToolLinkOS and ToolSandbox benchmarks, respectively (mAP@10). ToolLinkOS dataset is available at https://github.com/EliasLumer/Graph-RAG-Tool-Fusion-ToolLinkOS

Dark matter makes up approximately 85% of total matter in our universe, yet it has never been directly observed in any laboratory on Earth. The origin of dark matter is one of the most important questions in contemporary physics, and a convincing detection of dark matter would be a Nobel-Prize-level breakthrough in fundamental science. The ABRACADABRA experiment was specifically designed to search for dark matter. Although it has not yet made a discovery, ABRACADABRA has produced several dark matter search results widely endorsed by the physics community. The experiment generates ultra-long time-series data at a rate of 10 million samples per second, where the dark matter signal would manifest itself as a sinusoidal oscillation mode within the ultra-long time series. In this paper, we present the TIDMAD -- a comprehensive data release from the ABRACADABRA experiment including three key components: an ultra-long time series dataset divided into training, validation, and science subsets; a carefully-designed denoising score for direct model benchmarking; and a complete analysis framework which produces a community-standard dark matter search result suitable for publication as a physics paper. This data release enables core AI algorithms to extract the signal and produce real physics results thereby advancing fundamental science. The data downloading and associated analysis scripts are available at https://github.com/jessicafry/TIDMAD