Daily Papers

Vision-language models solve geometry problems with rising accuracy, yet their intermediate states remain latent and unverifiable: a relation expressed in textual reasoning or drawing code carries no guarantee that a constraint-satisfying configuration realizes it. We observe that existing externalization methods based on rendered pixels or one-shot scripts fail to provide exact, per-action geometric guarantees. Enforcing geometric relations by algebraic definition closes this gap: the workspace becomes a constraint-checked evolving canvas. We present Draw2Think, a framework that recasts geometric reasoning from latent spatial inference into agentic interaction with the GeoGebra constraint engine. In a Propose-Draw-Verify loop, Draw2Think externalizes hypotheses onto an executable canvas, measures exact geometric quantities, and feeds structured observations back to the model, so subsequent reasoning proceeds from checked canvas state grounded by the shared workspace. This externalization makes two properties separately auditable: model-level Construction Fidelity (whether the canvas realizes the intended configuration) and engine-level Measurement Faithfulness (exact values and relations from canvas constraints). Across construction, outcome, and rendering evaluations, Draw2Think builds canvases that pass 95.9% predicate-level and 84.0% strict problem-level construction checks on GeoGoal, improves outcome accuracy by up to 4.1%/16.4% on planar/solid benchmarks, and attains 68.2%/90.5% strict/relaxed rendering scores on GenExam-math. Project page is available at https://draw2think.github.io/

Learning rotation-invariant distinctive features is a fundamental requirement for point cloud registration. Existing methods often use rotation-sensitive networks to extract features, while employing rotation augmentation to learn an approximate invariant mapping rudely. This makes networks fragile to rotations, overweight, and hinders the distinctiveness of features. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel position-aware rotation-equivariant network, for efficient, light-weighted, and robust registration. The network can provide a strong model inductive bias to learn rotation-equivariant/invariant features, thus addressing the aforementioned limitations. To further improve the distinctiveness of descriptors, we propose a position-aware convolution, which can better learn spatial information of local structures. Moreover, we also propose a feature-based hypothesis proposer. It leverages rotation-equivariant features that encode fine-grained structure orientations to generate reliable model hypotheses. Each correspondence can generate a hypothesis, thus it is more efficient than classic estimators that require multiple reliable correspondences. Accordingly, a contrastive rotation loss is presented to enhance the robustness of rotation-equivariant features against data degradation. Extensive experiments on indoor and outdoor datasets demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the SOTA methods in terms of registration recall while being lightweight and keeping a fast speed. Moreover, experiments on rotated datasets demonstrate its robustness against rotation variations. Code is available at https://github.com/yaorz97/PARENet.

Most research about natural language generation (NLG) relies on evaluation benchmarks with limited references for a sample, which may result in poor correlations with human judgements. The underlying reason is that one semantic meaning can actually be expressed in different forms, and the evaluation with a single or few references may not accurately reflect the quality of the model's hypotheses. To address this issue, this paper presents a simple and effective method, named Div-Ref, to enhance existing evaluation benchmarks by enriching the number of references. We leverage large language models (LLMs) to diversify the expression of a single reference into multiple high-quality ones to cover the semantic space of the reference sentence as much as possible. We conduct comprehensive experiments to empirically demonstrate that diversifying the expression of reference can significantly enhance the correlation between automatic evaluation and human evaluation. This idea is compatible with recent LLM-based evaluation which can similarly derive advantages from incorporating multiple references. We strongly encourage future generation benchmarks to include more references, even if they are generated by LLMs, which is once for all. We release all the code and data at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/Div-Ref to facilitate research.

Precision livestock farming (PLF) increasingly relies on advanced object localization techniques to monitor livestock health and optimize resource management. This study investigates the generalization capabilities of YOLOv8 and YOLOv9 models for cow detection in indoor free-stall barn settings, focusing on varying training data characteristics such as view angles and lighting, and model complexities. Leveraging the newly released public dataset, COws LOcalization (COLO) dataset, we explore three key hypotheses: (1) Model generalization is equally influenced by changes in lighting conditions and camera angles; (2) Higher model complexity guarantees better generalization performance; (3) Fine-tuning with custom initial weights trained on relevant tasks always brings advantages to detection tasks. Our findings reveal considerable challenges in detecting cows in images taken from side views and underscore the importance of including diverse camera angles in building a detection model. Furthermore, our results emphasize that higher model complexity does not necessarily lead to better performance. The optimal model configuration heavily depends on the specific task and dataset. Lastly, while fine-tuning with custom initial weights trained on relevant tasks offers advantages to detection tasks, simpler models do not benefit similarly from this approach. It is more efficient to train a simple model with pre-trained weights without relying on prior relevant information, which can require intensive labor efforts. Future work should focus on adaptive methods and advanced data augmentation to improve generalization and robustness. This study provides practical guidelines for PLF researchers on deploying computer vision models from existing studies, highlights generalization issues, and contributes the COLO dataset containing 1254 images and 11818 cow instances for further research.

Recently, instruction-following audio-language models have received broad attention for human-audio interaction. However, the absence of benchmarks capable of evaluating audio-centric interaction capabilities has impeded advancements in this field. Previous models primarily focus on assessing different fundamental tasks, such as Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR), and lack an assessment of the open-ended generative capabilities centered around audio. Thus, it is challenging to track the progression in the Large Audio-Language Models (LALMs) domain and to provide guidance for future improvement. In this paper, we introduce AIR-Bench (Audio InstRuction Benchmark), the first benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of LALMs to understand various types of audio signals (including human speech, natural sounds, and music), and furthermore, to interact with humans in the textual format. AIR-Bench encompasses two dimensions: foundation and chat benchmarks. The former consists of 19 tasks with approximately 19k single-choice questions, intending to inspect the basic single-task ability of LALMs. The latter one contains 2k instances of open-ended question-and-answer data, directly assessing the comprehension of the model on complex audio and its capacity to follow instructions. Both benchmarks require the model to generate hypotheses directly. We design a unified framework that leverages advanced language models, such as GPT-4, to evaluate the scores of generated hypotheses given the meta-information of the audio. Experimental results demonstrate a high level of consistency between GPT-4-based evaluation and human evaluation. By revealing the limitations of existing LALMs through evaluation results, AIR-Bench can provide insights into the direction of future research.

LLM agents increasingly rely on external inference conditions: prompts, tools, memory, SOPs, skills, and harness feedback. These assets can improve task execution without changing model weights, but they are often revised by heuristic reflection or by reusing observed successes and failures as if counts alone were reliable belief. We introduce Bayesian-Agent, a native and cross-harness framework that treats reusable skills and SOPs as hypotheses about whether a frozen model will succeed under a particular prompt, context, and harness environment. Bayesian-Agent records verified trajectory evidence, maintains a feature-conditioned categorical posterior over each skill, and maps posterior state into inspectable actions such as patch, split, compress, retire, and explore. Model-facing prompts receive executable guardrails and failure-mode patches, while posterior summaries remain available for audit. With deepseek-v4-flash, incremental repair improves SOP-Bench from 80\% to 95\%, Lifelong AgentBench from 90\% to 100\%, and RealFin-Bench from 45\% to 65\%. We further evaluate Bayesian-Agent's native backend and optional GenericAgent, mini-swe-agent, and Claude Code backends. The results include positive, negative, saturated, and case-study settings, suggesting that agent skill evolution is best viewed as posterior-guided harness optimization rather than uncalibrated prompt accumulation. The source code is available at https://github.com/DataArcTech/Bayesian-Agent.

Error analysis in NLP models is essential to successful model development and deployment. One common approach for diagnosing errors is to identify subpopulations in the dataset where the model produces the most errors. However, existing approaches typically define subpopulations based on pre-defined features, which requires users to form hypotheses of errors in advance. To complement these approaches, we propose iSEA, an Interactive Pipeline for Semantic Error Analysis in NLP Models, which automatically discovers semantically-grounded subpopulations with high error rates in the context of a human-in-the-loop interactive system. iSEA enables model developers to learn more about their model errors through discovered subpopulations, validate the sources of errors through interactive analysis on the discovered subpopulations, and test hypotheses about model errors by defining custom subpopulations. The tool supports semantic descriptions of error-prone subpopulations at the token and concept level, as well as pre-defined higher-level features. Through use cases and expert interviews, we demonstrate how iSEA can assist error understanding and analysis.

To truly understand vision models, we must not only interpret their learned features but also validate these interpretations through controlled experiments. Current approaches either provide interpretable features without the ability to test their causal influence, or enable model editing without interpretable controls. We present a unified framework using sparse autoencoders (SAEs) that bridges this gap, allowing us to discover human-interpretable visual features and precisely manipulate them to test hypotheses about model behavior. By applying our method to state-of-the-art vision models, we reveal key differences in the semantic abstractions learned by models with different pre-training objectives. We then demonstrate the practical usage of our framework through controlled interventions across multiple vision tasks. We show that SAEs can reliably identify and manipulate interpretable visual features without model re-training, providing a powerful tool for understanding and controlling vision model behavior. We provide code, demos and models on our project website: https://osu-nlp-group.github.io/SAE-V.

Large language models have become drivers of evolutionary search, but most systems rely on a fixed, prompt-elicited policy to sample next candidates. This limits adaptation in practical engineering and research tasks, where evaluations are expensive, and progress depends on learning task-specific search dynamics. We introduce PACEvolve++, an advisor-model reinforcement learning framework for test-time policy adaptation in evolutionary search agents. PACEvolve++ decouples strategic search decisions from implementation: a trainable advisor generates, assesses, and selects hypotheses, while a stronger frontier model translates selected hypotheses into executable candidates. To train the advisor under non-stationary feedback, we propose a phase-adaptive approach that adapts its optimization strategy to different phases of the evolutionary process. Early in evolution, it uses group-relative feedback to learn broad search preferences; later, as reward gaps compress, it emphasizes best-of-k frontier contribution to support stable refinement. Across expert-parallel load balancing, sequential recommendation, and protein fitness extrapolation, PACEvolve++ outperforms the state-of-the-art evolutionary search framework with frontier models, achieving faster convergence and stabilizing test-time training during evolutionary search.

We present v1, a lightweight extension to Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) that enables selective visual revisitation during inference. While current MLLMs typically consume visual input only once and reason purely over internal memory, v1 introduces a simple point-and-copy mechanism that allows the model to dynamically retrieve relevant image regions throughout the reasoning process. This mechanism augments existing architectures with minimal modifications, enabling contextual access to visual tokens based on the model's evolving hypotheses. To train this capability, we construct v1g, a dataset of 300K multimodal reasoning traces with interleaved visual grounding annotations. Experiments on three multimodal mathematical reasoning benchmarks -- MathVista, MathVision, and MathVerse -- demonstrate that v1 consistently improves performance over comparable baselines, particularly on tasks requiring fine-grained visual reference and multi-step reasoning. Our results suggest that dynamic visual access is a promising direction for enhancing grounded multimodal reasoning. Code, models, and data will be released to support future research.

The measure of a machine learning algorithm is the difficulty of the tasks it can perform, and sufficiently difficult tasks are critical drivers of strong machine learning models. However, quantifying the generalization difficulty of machine learning benchmarks has remained challenging. We propose what is to our knowledge the first model-agnostic measure of the inherent generalization difficulty of tasks. Our inductive bias complexity measure quantifies the total information required to generalize well on a task minus the information provided by the data. It does so by measuring the fractional volume occupied by hypotheses that generalize on a task given that they fit the training data. It scales exponentially with the intrinsic dimensionality of the space over which the model must generalize but only polynomially in resolution per dimension, showing that tasks which require generalizing over many dimensions are drastically more difficult than tasks involving more detail in fewer dimensions. Our measure can be applied to compute and compare supervised learning, reinforcement learning and meta-learning generalization difficulties against each other. We show that applied empirically, it formally quantifies intuitively expected trends, e.g. that in terms of required inductive bias, MNIST < CIFAR10 < Imagenet and fully observable Markov decision processes (MDPs) < partially observable MDPs. Further, we show that classification of complex images < few-shot meta-learning with simple images. Our measure provides a quantitative metric to guide the construction of more complex tasks requiring greater inductive bias, and thereby encourages the development of more sophisticated architectures and learning algorithms with more powerful generalization capabilities.

Pretrained masked language models (MLMs) require finetuning for most NLP tasks. Instead, we evaluate MLMs out of the box via their pseudo-log-likelihood scores (PLLs), which are computed by masking tokens one by one. We show that PLLs outperform scores from autoregressive language models like GPT-2 in a variety of tasks. By rescoring ASR and NMT hypotheses, RoBERTa reduces an end-to-end LibriSpeech model's WER by 30% relative and adds up to +1.7 BLEU on state-of-the-art baselines for low-resource translation pairs, with further gains from domain adaptation. We attribute this success to PLL's unsupervised expression of linguistic acceptability without a left-to-right bias, greatly improving on scores from GPT-2 (+10 points on island effects, NPI licensing in BLiMP). One can finetune MLMs to give scores without masking, enabling computation in a single inference pass. In all, PLLs and their associated pseudo-perplexities (PPPLs) enable plug-and-play use of the growing number of pretrained MLMs; e.g., we use a single cross-lingual model to rescore translations in multiple languages. We release our library for language model scoring at https://github.com/awslabs/mlm-scoring.

The study of biological materials and bio-inspired materials science is well established; however, surprisingly little knowledge has been systematically translated to engineering solutions. To accelerate discovery and guide insights, an open-source autoregressive transformer large language model (LLM), BioinspiredLLM, is reported. The model was finetuned with a corpus of over a thousand peer-reviewed articles in the field of structural biological and bio-inspired materials and can be prompted to recall information, assist with research tasks, and function as an engine for creativity. The model has proven that it is able to accurately recall information about biological materials and is further enhanced with enhanced reasoning ability, as well as with retrieval-augmented generation to incorporate new data during generation that can also help to traceback sources, update the knowledge base, and connect knowledge domains. BioinspiredLLM also has been shown to develop sound hypotheses regarding biological materials design and remarkably so for materials that have never been explicitly studied before. Lastly, the model showed impressive promise in collaborating with other generative artificial intelligence models in a workflow that can reshape the traditional materials design process. This collaborative generative artificial intelligence method can stimulate and enhance bio-inspired materials design workflows. Biological materials are at a critical intersection of multiple scientific fields and models like BioinspiredLLM help to connect knowledge domains.

Localizing behaviors of neural networks to a subset of the network's components or a subset of interactions between components is a natural first step towards analyzing network mechanisms and possible failure modes. Existing work is often qualitative and ad-hoc, and there is no consensus on the appropriate way to evaluate localization claims. We introduce path patching, a technique for expressing and quantitatively testing a natural class of hypotheses expressing that behaviors are localized to a set of paths. We refine an explanation of induction heads, characterize a behavior of GPT-2, and open source a framework for efficiently running similar experiments.

Subword tokenization is an essential part of modern large language models (LLMs), yet its specific contributions to training efficiency and model performance remain poorly understood. In this work, we decouple the effects of subword tokenization by isolating them within a controlled byte-level pretraining pipeline. We formulate and test hypotheses across various dimensions, including sample throughput, vocabulary scaling, and the linguistic prior of subword boundaries. By simulating these effects in a byte-level setting, we refine our understanding of why subword models outperform raw byte models and offer insights to improve the pretraining of future byte-level and subword models. Specifically, our experiments highlight the critical role of increased training throughput and the integration of subword boundaries as either explicit priors or inductive biases.

We introduce Any6D, a model-free framework for 6D object pose estimation that requires only a single RGB-D anchor image to estimate both the 6D pose and size of unknown objects in novel scenes. Unlike existing methods that rely on textured 3D models or multiple viewpoints, Any6D leverages a joint object alignment process to enhance 2D-3D alignment and metric scale estimation for improved pose accuracy. Our approach integrates a render-and-compare strategy to generate and refine pose hypotheses, enabling robust performance in scenarios with occlusions, non-overlapping views, diverse lighting conditions, and large cross-environment variations. We evaluate our method on five challenging datasets: REAL275, Toyota-Light, HO3D, YCBINEOAT, and LM-O, demonstrating its effectiveness in significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods for novel object pose estimation. Project page: https://taeyeop.com/any6d

Mechanistic interpretability has made substantial progress in automatically localizing circuits, but explaining what localized components do remains labor-intensive and difficult to standardize. In this work, we study whether language model (LM) agents can assist with this explanation problem once a circuit has already been identified. We introduce AgenticInterpBench, a benchmark for circuit explanation built from 84 semi-synthetic transformer circuits with 163 component-level annotations. We propose HyVE (Hypothesize, Validate, Explain), an agentic explainer that analyzes each component through an iterative loop of observation, hypothesis generation, and causal validation, eventually producing a component-level explanation and a circuit-level task description. Across four LM backbones, HyVE recovers useful component- and task-level explanations, but no backbone is uniformly best. Our analysis shows that strong backbones usually form observation-grounded hypotheses, while failures more often arise later in the validation loop, through incomplete validation plans, code execution errors, or unresolved hypotheses. A case study on an arithmetic circuit in Llama-3-8B shows that the same formulation can extend beyond semi-synthetic benchmarks to naturally trained models. Overall, LM agents are promising circuit explainers, but reliable validation remains the key obstacle.

3D human shape reconstruction under severe occlusion due to human-object or human-human interaction is a challenging problem. Parametric models i.e., SMPL(-X), which are based on the statistics across human shapes, can represent whole human body shapes but are limited to minimally-clothed human shapes. Implicit-function-based methods extract features from the parametric models to employ prior knowledge of human bodies and can capture geometric details such as clothing and hair. However, they often struggle to handle misaligned parametric models and inpaint occluded regions given a single RGB image. In this work, we propose a novel pipeline, MHCDIFF, Multi-hypotheses Conditioned Point Cloud Diffusion, composed of point cloud diffusion conditioned on probabilistic distributions for pixel-aligned detailed 3D human reconstruction under occlusion. Compared to previous implicit-function-based methods, the point cloud diffusion model can capture the global consistent features to generate the occluded regions, and the denoising process corrects the misaligned SMPL meshes. The core of MHCDIFF is extracting local features from multiple hypothesized SMPL(-X) meshes and aggregating the set of features to condition the diffusion model. In the experiments on CAPE and MultiHuman datasets, the proposed method outperforms various SOTA methods based on SMPL, implicit functions, point cloud diffusion, and their combined, under synthetic and real occlusions. Our code is publicly available at https://donghwankim0101.github.io/projects/mhcdiff/ .

Voice assistants increasingly use on-device Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) to ensure speed and privacy. However, due to resource constraints on the device, queries pertaining to complex information domains often require further processing by a search engine. For such applications, we propose a novel Transformer based model capable of rescoring and rewriting, by exploring full context of the N-best hypotheses in parallel. We also propose a new discriminative sequence training objective that can work well for both rescore and rewrite tasks. We show that our Rescore+Rewrite model outperforms the Rescore-only baseline, and achieves up to an average 8.6% relative Word Error Rate (WER) reduction over the ASR system by itself.

Reducing hallucination of Large Language Models (LLMs) is imperative for use in the sciences where reproducibility is crucial. However, LLMs inherently lack long-term memory, making it a nontrivial, ad hoc, and inevitably biased task to fine-tune them on domain-specific literature and data. Here we introduce LLaMP, a multimodal retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework of multiple data-aware reasoning-and-acting (ReAct) agents that dynamically interact with computational and experimental data on Materials Project (MP). Without fine-tuning, LLaMP demonstrates an ability to comprehend and integrate various modalities of materials science concepts, fetch relevant data stores on the fly, process higher-order data (such as crystal structures and elastic tensors), and summarize multi-step procedures for solid-state synthesis. We show that LLaMP effectively corrects errors in GPT-3.5's intrinsic knowledge, reducing a 5.21% MAPE on frequently-documented bandgaps and a significant 1103.54% MAPE on formation energies -- errors that GPT-3.5 seems to derive from mixed data sources. Additionally, LLaMP substantially reduces the hallucinated volumetric strain in a diamond cubic silicon structure from 66.3% to 0. The proposed framework offers an intuitive and nearly hallucination-free approach to exploring materials informatics and establishes a pathway for knowledge distillation and fine-tuning other language models. We envision the framework as a valuable component for scientific hypotheses and a foundation for future autonomous laboratories where multiple LLM agents communicate and cooperate with robotics to drive material synthesis and chemical reactions without hard-coded human logic and intervention.

We introduce ResearchGym, a benchmark and execution environment for evaluating AI agents on end-to-end research. To instantiate this, we repurpose five oral and spotlight papers from ICML, ICLR, and ACL. From each paper's repository, we preserve the datasets, evaluation harness, and baseline implementations but withhold the paper's proposed method. This results in five containerized task environments comprising 39 sub-tasks in total. Within each environment, agents must propose novel hypotheses, run experiments, and attempt to surpass strong human baselines on the paper's metrics. In a controlled evaluation of an agent powered by GPT-5, we observe a sharp capability--reliability gap. The agent improves over the provided baselines from the repository in just 1 of 15 evaluations (6.7%) by 11.5%, and completes only 26.5% of sub-tasks on average. We identify recurring long-horizon failure modes, including impatience, poor time and resource management, overconfidence in weak hypotheses, difficulty coordinating parallel experiments, and hard limits from context length. Yet in a single run, the agent surpasses the solution of an ICML 2025 Spotlight task, indicating that frontier agents can occasionally reach state-of-the-art performance, but do so unreliably. We additionally evaluate proprietary agent scaffolds including Claude Code (Opus-4.5) and Codex (GPT-5.2) which display a similar gap. ResearchGym provides infrastructure for systematic evaluation and analysis of autonomous agents on closed-loop research.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) standardizes how AI agents discover and invoke external tools, with over 10,000 active servers and 97 million monthly SDK downloads as of early 2026. Yet MCP does not yet standardize how agents safely operate those tools at production scale. Three protocol-level primitives remain missing: identity propagation, adaptive tool budgeting, and structured error semantics. This paper identifies these gaps through field lessons from an enterprise deployment of an AI agent platform integrated with a major cloud provider's MCP servers (client name redacted). We propose three mechanisms to fill them: (1) the Context-Aware Broker Protocol (CABP), which extends JSON-RPC with identity-scoped request routing via a six-stage broker pipeline; (2) Adaptive Timeout Budget Allocation (ATBA), which frames sequential tool invocation as a budget allocation problem over heterogeneous latency distributions; and (3) the Structured Error Recovery Framework (SERF), which provides machine-readable failure semantics that enable deterministic agent self-correction. We organize production failure modes into five design dimensions (server contracts, user context, timeouts, errors, and observability), document concrete failure vignettes, and present a production readiness checklist. All three algorithms are formalized as testable hypotheses with reproducible experimental methodology. Field observations demonstrate that while MCP provides a solid protocol foundation, reliable agent tool integration requires infrastructure-level mechanisms that the specification does not yet address.

Medical image segmentation is crucial for clinical diagnosis and treatment planning. Traditional methods typically produce a single segmentation mask, failing to capture inherent uncertainty. Recent generative models enable the creation of multiple plausible masks per image, mimicking the collaborative interpretation of several clinicians. However, these approaches remain computationally heavy. We propose MedSegLatDiff, a diffusion based framework that combines a variational autoencoder (VAE) with a latent diffusion model for efficient medical image segmentation. The VAE compresses the input into a low dimensional latent space, reducing noise and accelerating training, while the diffusion process operates directly in this compact representation. We further replace the conventional MSE loss with weighted cross entropy in the VAE mask reconstruction path to better preserve tiny structures such as small nodules. MedSegLatDiff is evaluated on ISIC-2018 (skin lesions), CVC-Clinic (polyps), and LIDC-IDRI (lung nodules). It achieves state of the art or highly competitive Dice and IoU scores while simultaneously generating diverse segmentation hypotheses and confidence maps. This provides enhanced interpretability and reliability compared to deterministic baselines, making the model particularly suitable for clinical deployment.

Machine learning (ML) models can fail in unexpected ways in the real world, but not all model failures are equal. With finite time and resources, ML practitioners are forced to prioritize their model debugging and improvement efforts. Through interviews with 13 ML practitioners at Apple, we found that practitioners construct small targeted test sets to estimate an error's nature, scope, and impact on users. We built on this insight in a case study with machine translation models, and developed Angler, an interactive visual analytics tool to help practitioners prioritize model improvements. In a user study with 7 machine translation experts, we used Angler to understand prioritization practices when the input space is infinite, and obtaining reliable signals of model quality is expensive. Our study revealed that participants could form more interesting and user-focused hypotheses for prioritization by analyzing quantitative summary statistics and qualitatively assessing data by reading sentences.

Text-to-SQL task maps natural language utterances to structured queries that can be issued to a database. State-of-the-art (SOTA) systems rely on finetuning large, pre-trained language models in conjunction with constrained decoding applying a SQL parser. On the well established Spider dataset, we begin with Oracle studies: specifically, choosing an Oracle hypothesis from a SOTA model's 10-best list, yields a 7.7% absolute improvement in both exact match (EM) and execution (EX) accuracy, showing significant potential improvements with reranking. Identifying coherence and correctness as reranking approaches, we design a model generating a query plan and propose a heuristic schema linking algorithm. Combining both approaches, with T5-Large, we obtain a consistent 1% improvement in EM accuracy, and a ~2.5% improvement in EX, establishing a new SOTA for this task. Our comprehensive error studies on DEV data show the underlying difficulty in making progress on this task.

Skills are a natural unit for describing what a language model can do and how its behavior can be changed. However, existing characterizations rely on human-written taxonomies, textual descriptions, or manual profiling pipelines--all external hypotheses about what matters that need not align with the model's internal representations. We argue that when the goal is to intervene on model behavior, skill characterization should be *model-native*: grounded in the model's own representations rather than imposed through external ontologies. We instantiate this view by recovering a compact orthogonal basis from sequence-level activations. The resulting basis is semantically interpretable but need not correspond to any predefined human ontology; instead, it captures axes of behavioral variation that the model itself organizes around. We validate this characterization on reasoning post-training, using the recovered basis for both SFT data selection and inference-time steering. We develop lightweight proxy interventions to identify which directions are most useful for a given model. Across Llama3-8B and Qwen2.5-3B, selecting data along those directions improves Pass@1 by up to 20% on MATH and 41% on AMC, outperforming data selection based on human-characterized skills. Because the basis lives in activation space, the same directions also serve as steering vectors at inference time, improving Pass@8 by up to 4.8% on MATH--an intervention that human-characterized skills cannot support. We further validate the characterization on safety alignment, where selecting adversarial training data for model-native skill coverage rather than textual diversity yields more sample-efficient learning. These results suggest that recovering skills from the model's own representations, rather than imposing them externally, provides a more effective foundation for intervening on model behavior. Codes are open-sourced.

Do brains and language models converge toward the same internal representations of the world? Recent years have seen a rise in studies of neural activations and model alignment. In this work, we review 25 fMRI-based studies published between 2023 and 2025 and explicitly confront their findings with two key hypotheses: (i) the Platonic Representation Hypothesis -- that as models scale and improve, they converge to a representation of the real world, and (ii) the Intermediate-Layer Advantage -- that intermediate (mid-depth) layers often encode richer, more generalizable features. Our findings provide converging evidence that models and brains may share abstract representational structures, supporting both hypotheses and motivating further research on brain-model alignment.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly rely on thinking models that externalize intermediate steps and allocate extra test-time compute, with think-twice strategies showing that a deliberate second pass can elicit stronger reasoning. In contrast, most reward models (RMs) still compress many quality dimensions into a single scalar in one shot, a design that induces judgment diffusion: attention spreads across evaluation criteria, yielding diluted focus and shallow analysis. We introduce branch-and-rethink (BR-RM), a two-turn RM that transfers the think-twice principle to reward modeling. Turn 1 performs adaptive branching, selecting a small set of instance-critical dimensions (such as factuality and safety) and sketching concise, evidence-seeking hypotheses. Turn 2 executes branch-conditioned rethinking, a targeted reread that tests those hypotheses and scrutinizes only what matters most. We train with GRPO-style reinforcement learning over structured two-turn traces using a simple binary outcome reward with strict format checks, making the approach compatible with standard RLHF pipelines. By converting all-at-oncescoringintofocused, second-lookreasoning, BR-RMreducesjudgmentdiffusionandimproves sensitivity to subtle yet consequential errors while remaining practical and scalable. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on three challenging reward modeling benchmarks across diverse domains. The code and the model will be released soon.

Neural machine translation systems estimate probabilities of target sentences given source sentences, yet these estimates may not align with human preferences. This work introduces QE-fusion, a method utilizing a quality estimation metric (QE) that better correlates with human judgments to synthesize improved translations. QE-fusion leverages a candidate pool sampled from a model, combining spans from different candidates using QE metrics such as CometKiwi. We compare QE-fusion against beam search and recent reranking techniques, such as Minimum Bayes Risk decoding or QE-reranking. Our method consistently improves translation quality in terms of COMET and BLEURT scores when applied to large language models (LLMs) used for translation (PolyLM, XGLM, Llama2, and Mistral) and to multilingual translation models (NLLB), over five language pairs. Notably, QE-fusion exhibits larger improvements for LLMs due to their ability to generate diverse outputs. We demonstrate that our approach generates novel translations in over half of the cases and consistently outperforms other methods across varying numbers of candidates (5-200). Furthermore, we empirically establish that QE-fusion scales linearly with the number of candidates in the pool. QE-fusion proves effective in enhancing LLM-based translation without the need for costly retraining of LLMs.

Perceiving 3D structures from RGB images based on CAD model primitives can enable an effective, efficient 3D object-based representation of scenes. However, current approaches rely on supervision from expensive annotations of CAD models associated with real images, and encounter challenges due to the inherent ambiguities in the task -- both in depth-scale ambiguity in monocular perception, as well as inexact matches of CAD database models to real observations. We thus propose DiffCAD, the first weakly-supervised probabilistic approach to CAD retrieval and alignment from an RGB image. We formulate this as a conditional generative task, leveraging diffusion to learn implicit probabilistic models capturing the shape, pose, and scale of CAD objects in an image. This enables multi-hypothesis generation of different plausible CAD reconstructions, requiring only a few hypotheses to characterize ambiguities in depth/scale and inexact shape matches. Our approach is trained only on synthetic data, leveraging monocular depth and mask estimates to enable robust zero-shot adaptation to various real target domains. Despite being trained solely on synthetic data, our multi-hypothesis approach can even surpass the supervised state-of-the-art on the Scan2CAD dataset by 5.9% with 8 hypotheses.

This paper introduces NoRefER, a novel referenceless quality metric for automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. Traditional reference-based metrics for evaluating ASR systems require costly ground-truth transcripts. NoRefER overcomes this limitation by fine-tuning a multilingual language model for pair-wise ranking ASR hypotheses using contrastive learning with Siamese network architecture. The self-supervised NoRefER exploits the known quality relationships between hypotheses from multiple compression levels of an ASR for learning to rank intra-sample hypotheses by quality, which is essential for model comparisons. The semi-supervised version also uses a referenced dataset to improve its inter-sample quality ranking, which is crucial for selecting potentially erroneous samples. The results indicate that NoRefER correlates highly with reference-based metrics and their intra-sample ranks, indicating a high potential for referenceless ASR evaluation or a/b testing.

The common standard for quality evaluation of automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems is reference-based metrics such as the Word Error Rate (WER), computed using manual ground-truth transcriptions that are time-consuming and expensive to obtain. This work proposes a multi-language referenceless quality metric, which allows comparing the performance of different ASR models on a speech dataset without ground truth transcriptions. To estimate the quality of ASR hypotheses, a pre-trained language model (LM) is fine-tuned with contrastive learning in a self-supervised learning manner. In experiments conducted on several unseen test datasets consisting of outputs from top commercial ASR engines in various languages, the proposed referenceless metric obtains a much higher correlation with WER scores and their ranks than the perplexity metric from the state-of-art multi-lingual LM in all experiments, and also reduces WER by more than 7% when used for ensembling hypotheses. The fine-tuned model and experiments are made available for the reproducibility: https://github.com/aixplain/NoRefER

Current voice assistants typically use the best hypothesis yielded by their Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) module as input to their Natural Language Understanding (NLU) module, thereby losing helpful information that might be stored in lower-ranked ASR hypotheses. We explore the change in performance of NLU associated tasks when utilizing five-best ASR hypotheses when compared to status quo for two language datasets, German and Portuguese. To harvest information from the ASR five-best, we leverage extractive summarization and joint extractive-abstractive summarization models for Domain Classification (DC) experiments while using a sequence-to-sequence model with a pointer generator network for Intent Classification (IC) and Named Entity Recognition (NER) multi-task experiments. For the DC full test set, we observe significant improvements of up to 7.2% and 15.5% in micro-averaged F1 scores, for German and Portuguese, respectively. In cases where the best ASR hypothesis was not an exact match to the transcribed utterance (mismatched test set), we see improvements of up to 6.7% and 8.8% micro-averaged F1 scores, for German and Portuguese, respectively. For IC and NER multi-task experiments, when evaluating on the mismatched test set, we see improvements across all domains in German and in 17 out of 19 domains in Portuguese (improvements based on change in SeMER scores). Our results suggest that the use of multiple ASR hypotheses, as opposed to one, can lead to significant performance improvements in the DC task for these non-English datasets. In addition, it could lead to significant improvement in the performance of IC and NER tasks in cases where the ASR model makes mistakes.

Nearby neurons in cortex share similar response profiles, producing systematic spatial organization across sensory and cognitive systems. Recent topographic models reproduce aspects of this structure but remain unimodal and spatially constrain each layer separately, yielding fragmented maps that capture neither the contiguity of cortical processing streams nor their integration across modalities. We introduce Topo-Omni, a topographic multimodal model in which visual, auditory, and language/cognitive processing share a single contiguous in-silico sheet. Built by fine-tuning a pretrained foundation model with a spatial smoothness objective, this architecture develops clusters across modalities that are consistent with human neuroimaging, from sensory to cognitive systems. Driving or suppressing a cluster selectively biases or impairs perception, paralleling human intervention studies. Finally, we use our model to screen for novel clusters in-silico and discover new natural landscape and animal networks which we validate in human data. A single spatial principle thus organizes representations across modalities and processing stages, yielding testable hypotheses about cortical organization.

We introduce Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift (SACD), a hypothesized tendency for large language models (LLMs) to show systematic changes in expressed confidence when building iteratively on their own prior outputs across multi-turn conversations. We report an empirical study comparing three frontier models -- Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.2 -- across 150 questions spanning factual, technical, and open-ended domains, using three conditions: single-turn baseline (A), multi-turn self-anchoring (B), and independent repetition control (C). Results reveal a complex, model-heterogeneous pattern that partially diverges from pre-registered hypotheses. Claude Sonnet 4.6 exhibited significant decreasing confidence under self-anchoring (mean CDS = -0.032, t(14) = -2.43, p = .029, d = -0.627), while also showing significant calibration error drift (F(4,56) = 22.77, p < .001, eta^2 = .791). GPT-5.2 showed the opposite pattern in open-ended domains (mean CDS = +0.026) with significant ECE escalation by Turn 5. Gemini 3.1 Pro showed no significant CDS (t(14) = 0.38, p = .710), but its Condition C data reveals a striking ECE pattern: without self-anchoring, Gemini's calibration error drops from .327 to near zero across repetitions, whereas self-anchoring holds ECE flat at approximately .333 -- indicating that SACD can manifest as suppression of natural calibration improvement rather than ac

Accurate computational identification of DNA methylation is essential for understanding epigenetic regulation. Although deep learning excels in this binary classification task, its "black-box" nature impedes biological insight. We address this by introducing a high-performance model MEDNA-DFM, alongside mechanism-inspired signal purification algorithms. Our investigation demonstrates that MEDNA-DFM effectively captures conserved methylation patterns, achieving robust distinction across diverse species. Validation on external independent datasets confirms that the model's generalization is driven by conserved intrinsic motifs (e.g., GC content) rather than phylogenetic proximity. Furthermore, applying our developed algorithms extracted motifs with significantly higher reliability than prior studies. Finally, empirical evidence from a Drosophila 6mA case study prompted us to propose a "sequence-structure synergy" hypothesis, suggesting that the GAGG core motif and an upstream A-tract element function cooperatively. We further validated this hypothesis via in silico mutagenesis, confirming that the ablation of either or both elements significantly degrades the model's recognition capabilities. This work provides a powerful tool for methylation prediction and demonstrates how explainable deep learning can drive both methodological innovation and the generation of biological hypotheses.

The autoregressive world model exhibits robust generalization capabilities in vectorized scene understanding but encounters difficulties in deriving actions due to insufficient uncertainty modeling and self-delusion. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of deriving decisions from an autoregressive world model by addressing these challenges through the formulation of multiple probabilistic hypotheses. We propose LatentDriver, a framework models the environment's next states and the ego vehicle's possible actions as a mixture distribution, from which a deterministic control signal is then derived. By incorporating mixture modeling, the stochastic nature of decisionmaking is captured. Additionally, the self-delusion problem is mitigated by providing intermediate actions sampled from a distribution to the world model. Experimental results on the recently released close-loop benchmark Waymax demonstrate that LatentDriver surpasses state-of-the-art reinforcement learning and imitation learning methods, achieving expert-level performance. The code and models will be made available at https://github.com/Sephirex-X/LatentDriver.

In this study, we investigate the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs) in professing human-like personality traits through responses to personality questionnaires. Our goal is to evaluate the consistency between LLMs' professed personality inclinations and their actual "behavior", examining the extent to which these models can emulate human-like personality patterns. Through a comprehensive analysis of LLM outputs against established human benchmarks, we seek to understand the cognition-action divergence in LLMs and propose hypotheses for the observed results based on psychological theories and metrics.

Optimizing large-scale machine learning systems, such as recommendation models for global video platforms, requires navigating a massive hyperparameter search space and, more critically, designing sophisticated optimizers, architectures, and reward functions to capture nuanced user behaviors. Achieving substantial improvements in these areas is a non-trivial task, traditionally relying on extensive manual iterations to test new hypotheses. We propose a self-evolving system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically those from Google's Gemini family, to autonomously generate, train, and deploy high-performing, complex model changes within an end-to-end automated workflow. The self-evolving system is comprised of an Offline Agent (Inner Loop) that performs high-throughput hypothesis generation using proxy metrics, and an Online Agent (Outer Loop) that validates candidates against delayed north star business metrics in live production. Our agents act as specialized Machine Learning Engineers (MLEs): they exhibit deep reasoning capabilities, discovering novel improvements in optimization algorithms and model architecture, and formulating innovative reward functions that target long-term user engagement. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through several successful production launches at YouTube, confirming that autonomous, LLM-driven evolution can surpass traditional engineering workflows in both development velocity and model performance.

Reasoning is a fundamental substrate for solving novel and complex problems. Deliberate efforts in learning and developing frameworks around System 2 reasoning have made great strides, yet problems of sufficient complexity remain largely out of reach for open models. To address this gap, we examine the potential of Generative Flow Networks as a fine-tuning method for LLMs to unlock advanced reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we present a proof of concept in the domain of formal reasoning, specifically in the Neural Theorem Proving (NTP) setting, where proofs specified in a formal language such as Lean can be deterministically and objectively verified. Unlike classical reward-maximization reinforcement learning, which frequently over-exploits high-reward actions and fails to effectively explore the state space, GFlowNets have emerged as a promising approach for sampling compositional objects, improving generalization, and enabling models to maintain diverse hypotheses. Our early results demonstrate GFlowNet fine-tuning's potential for enhancing model performance in a search setting, which is especially relevant given the paradigm shift towards inference time compute scaling and "thinking slowly."

Financial markets pose fundamental challenges for asset return prediction due to their high dimensionality, non-stationarity, and persistent volatility. Despite advances in large language models and multi-agent systems, current quantitative research pipelines suffer from limited automation, weak interpretability, and fragmented coordination across key components such as factor mining and model innovation. In this paper, we propose R&D-Agent for Quantitative Finance, in short RD-Agent(Q), the first data-centric multi-agent framework designed to automate the full-stack research and development of quantitative strategies via coordinated factor-model co-optimization. RD-Agent(Q) decomposes the quant process into two iterative stages: a Research stage that dynamically sets goal-aligned prompts, formulates hypotheses based on domain priors, and maps them to concrete tasks, and a Development stage that employs a code-generation agent, Co-STEER, to implement task-specific code, which is then executed in real-market backtests. The two stages are connected through a feedback stage that thoroughly evaluates experimental outcomes and informs subsequent iterations, with a multi-armed bandit scheduler for adaptive direction selection. Empirically, RD-Agent(Q) achieves up to 2X higher annualized returns than classical factor libraries using 70% fewer factors, and outperforms state-of-the-art deep time-series models on real markets. Its joint factor-model optimization delivers a strong balance between predictive accuracy and strategy robustness. Our code is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/RD-Agent.

As foundation models (FMs) approach human-level fluency, distinguishing synthetic from organic content has become a key challenge for Trustworthy Web Intelligence. This paper presents JudgeGPT and RogueGPT, a dual-axis framework that decouples "authenticity" from "attribution" to investigate the mechanisms of human susceptibility. Analyzing 918 evaluations across five FMs (including GPT-4 and Llama-2), we employ Structural Causal Models (SCMs) as a principal framework for formulating testable causal hypotheses about detection accuracy. Contrary to partisan narratives, we find that political orientation shows a negligible association with detection performance (r=-0.10). Instead, "fake news familiarity" emerges as a candidate mediator (r=0.35), suggesting that exposure may function as adversarial training for human discriminators. We identify a "fluency trap" where GPT-4 outputs (HumanMachineScore: 0.20) bypass Source Monitoring mechanisms, rendering them indistinguishable from human text. These findings suggest that "pre-bunking" interventions should target cognitive source monitoring rather than demographic segmentation to ensure trustworthy information ecosystems.

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Humans are interactive agents driven to seek out situations with interesting physical dynamics. Here we formalize the functional form of physical intrinsic motivation. We first collect ratings of how interesting humans find a variety of physics scenarios. We then model human interestingness responses by implementing various hypotheses of intrinsic motivation including models that rely on simple scene features to models that depend on forward physics prediction. We find that the single best predictor of human responses is adversarial reward, a model derived from physical prediction loss. We also find that simple scene feature models do not generalize their prediction of human responses across all scenarios. Finally, linearly combining the adversarial model with the number of collisions in a scene leads to the greatest improvement in predictivity of human responses, suggesting humans are driven towards scenarios that result in high information gain and physical activity.

Deep ensembles (DE) have been successful in improving model performance by learning diverse members via the stochasticity of random initialization. While recent works have attempted to promote further diversity in DE via hyperparameters or regularizing loss functions, these methods primarily still rely on a stochastic approach to explore the hypothesis space. In this work, we present Multi-Symmetry Ensembles (MSE), a framework for constructing diverse ensembles by capturing the multiplicity of hypotheses along symmetry axes, which explore the hypothesis space beyond stochastic perturbations of model weights and hyperparameters. We leverage recent advances in contrastive representation learning to create models that separately capture opposing hypotheses of invariant and equivariant functional classes and present a simple ensembling approach to efficiently combine appropriate hypotheses for a given task. We show that MSE effectively captures the multiplicity of conflicting hypotheses that is often required in large, diverse datasets like ImageNet. As a result of their inherent diversity, MSE improves classification performance, uncertainty quantification, and generalization across a series of transfer tasks.

Recent studies have revealed a number of pathologies of neural machine translation (NMT) systems. Hypotheses explaining these mostly suggest there is something fundamentally wrong with NMT as a model or its training algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Most of this evidence was gathered using maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding, a decision rule aimed at identifying the highest-scoring translation, i.e. the mode. We argue that the evidence corroborates the inadequacy of MAP decoding more than casts doubt on the model and its training algorithm. In this work, we show that translation distributions do reproduce various statistics of the data well, but that beam search strays from such statistics. We show that some of the known pathologies and biases of NMT are due to MAP decoding and not to NMT's statistical assumptions nor MLE. In particular, we show that the most likely translations under the model accumulate so little probability mass that the mode can be considered essentially arbitrary. We therefore advocate for the use of decision rules that take into account the translation distribution holistically. We show that an approximation to minimum Bayes risk decoding gives competitive results confirming that NMT models do capture important aspects of translation well in expectation.

Large language models (LLMs) perform better when they produce step-by-step, "Chain-of-Thought" (CoT) reasoning before answering a question, but it is unclear if the stated reasoning is a faithful explanation of the model's actual reasoning (i.e., its process for answering the question). We investigate hypotheses for how CoT reasoning may be unfaithful, by examining how the model predictions change when we intervene on the CoT (e.g., by adding mistakes or paraphrasing it). Models show large variation across tasks in how strongly they condition on the CoT when predicting their answer, sometimes relying heavily on the CoT and other times primarily ignoring it. CoT's performance boost does not seem to come from CoT's added test-time compute alone or from information encoded via the particular phrasing of the CoT. As models become larger and more capable, they produce less faithful reasoning on most tasks we study. Overall, our results suggest that CoT can be faithful if the circumstances such as the model size and task are carefully chosen.

Recent automated research systems show that language-model agents can generate hypotheses, run experiments, and write complete manuscripts, but most evidence still comes from selected examples, human-framed topics, or a few pre-defined research tasks. We present FARS (Fully Automated Research System), a fully automated AI-for-AI research system designed to operate across research topics at scale. FARS autonomously generates and advances projects through ideation, planning, experimentation, and writing, using stage-specific agents coordinated through a shared workspace that records proposals, code, logs, results, and manuscripts. In its first public deployment, FARS produced 166 complete research papers spanning 67 fine-grained AI/ML topics while preserving intermediate artifacts as an auditable corpus rather than a curated set of successes. We evaluate this corpus with 282 structured reviews from volunteer reviewers covering 140 papers, including overall ratings, sub-scores, integrity checks, and LLM-use disclosure. The reviews indicate that FARS can produce review-worthy and occasionally strong AI/ML research artifacts in a large-scale public deployment, while also exposing recurring failure modes in narrow experimental scope, methodological limitations, and integrity issues.

Automated discovery of physical laws from observational data in the real world is a grand challenge in AI. Current methods, relying on symbolic regression or LLMs, are limited to uni-modal data and overlook the rich, visual phenomenological representations of motion that are indispensable to physicists. This "sensory deprivation" severely weakens their ability to interpret the inherent spatio-temporal patterns within dynamic phenomena. To address this gap, we propose VIPER-R1, a multimodal model that performs Visual Induction for Physics-based Equation Reasoning to discover fundamental symbolic formulas. It integrates visual perception, trajectory data, and symbolic reasoning to emulate the scientific discovery process. The model is trained via a curriculum of Motion Structure Induction (MSI), using supervised fine-tuning to interpret kinematic phase portraits and to construct hypotheses guided by a Causal Chain of Thought (C-CoT), followed by Reward-Guided Symbolic Calibration (RGSC) to refine the formula structure with reinforcement learning. During inference, the trained VIPER-R1 acts as an agent: it first posits a high-confidence symbolic ansatz, then proactively invokes an external symbolic regression tool to perform Symbolic Residual Realignment (SR^2). This final step, analogous to a physicist's perturbation analysis, reconciles the theoretical model with empirical data. To support this research, we introduce PhysSymbol, a new 5,000-instance multimodal corpus. Experiments show that VIPER-R1 consistently outperforms state-of-the-art VLM baselines in accuracy and interpretability, enabling more precise discovery of physical laws. Project page: https://jiaaqiliu.github.io/VIPER-R1/

The field of AI research is advancing at an unprecedented pace, enabling automated hypothesis generation and experimental design across diverse domains such as biology, mathematics, and artificial intelligence. Despite these advancements, there remains a significant gap in the availability of scalable advising systems capable of providing high-quality, well-reasoned feedback to refine proposed hypotheses and experimental designs. To address this challenge, we explore key factors that underlie the development of robust advising systems, including model size, context length, confidence estimation, and structured reasoning processes. Our findings reveal that a relatively small model, when equipped with a well-compressed literature database and a structured reasoning framework, can outperform powerful general-purpose language models such as Deepseek-R1 in terms of acceptance rates for self-ranked top-30% submissions to ICLR 2025. Moreover, when limited to high-confidence predictions, our system achieves an acceptance rate exceeding 90% on the ICLR 2025 test set, underscoring its potential to significantly enhance the quality and efficiency of hypothesis generation and experimental design. The code is released at https://github.com/HowardLiu0830/GUIDE-Research-Idea-Evaluation.

In this paper, we present an encoder-decoder model leveraging Flan-T5 for post-Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) Generative Speech Error Correction (GenSEC), and we refer to it as FlanEC. We explore its application within the GenSEC framework to enhance ASR outputs by mapping n-best hypotheses into a single output sentence. By utilizing n-best lists from ASR models, we aim to improve the linguistic correctness, accuracy, and grammaticality of final ASR transcriptions. Specifically, we investigate whether scaling the training data and incorporating diverse datasets can lead to significant improvements in post-ASR error correction. We evaluate FlanEC using the HyPoradise dataset, providing a comprehensive analysis of the model's effectiveness in this domain. Furthermore, we assess the proposed approach under different settings to evaluate model scalability and efficiency, offering valuable insights into the potential of instruction-tuned encoder-decoder models for this task.

Fine-tuning of pre-trained transformer models has become the standard approach for solving common NLP tasks. Most of the existing approaches rely on a randomly initialized classifier on top of such networks. We argue that this fine-tuning procedure is sub-optimal as the pre-trained model has no prior on the specific classifier labels, while it might have already learned an intrinsic textual representation of the task. In this paper, we introduce a new scoring method that casts a plausibility ranking task in a full-text format and leverages the masked language modeling head tuned during the pre-training phase. We study commonsense reasoning tasks where the model must rank a set of hypotheses given a premise, focusing on the COPA, Swag, HellaSwag and CommonsenseQA datasets. By exploiting our scoring method without fine-tuning, we are able to produce strong baselines (e.g. 80% test accuracy on COPA) that are comparable to supervised approaches. Moreover, when fine-tuning directly on the proposed scoring function, we show that our method provides a much more stable training phase across random restarts (e.g times 10 standard deviation reduction on COPA test accuracy) and requires less annotated data than the standard classifier approach to reach equivalent performances.

Virtual Try-On (VTON) is the task of synthesizing an image of a person wearing a target garment, conditioned on a person image and a garment image. While diffusion-based VTON models featuring a Dual UNet architecture demonstrate superior fidelity compared to single UNet models, they incur substantial computational and memory overhead due to their heavy structure. In this study, through visualization analysis and theoretical analysis, we derived three hypotheses regarding the learning of context features to condition the denoising process. Based on these hypotheses, we developed Re-CatVTON, an efficient single UNet model that achieves high performance. We further enhance the model by introducing a modified classifier-free guidance strategy tailored for VTON's spatial concatenation conditioning, and by directly injecting the ground-truth garment latent derived from the clean garment latent to prevent the accumulation of prediction error. The proposed Re-CatVTON significantly improves performance compared to its predecessor (CatVTON) and requires less computation and memory than the high-performance Dual UNet model, Leffa. Our results demonstrate improved FID, KID, and LPIPS scores, with only a marginal decrease in SSIM, establishing a new efficiency-performance trade-off for single UNet VTON models.

In this work, we propose a modular approach for the Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) task by decomposing the problem into four sub-modules that use state-of-the-art Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) in a zero-shot setting. Given navigation instruction in natural language, we first prompt LLM to extract the landmarks and the order in which they are visited. Assuming the known model of the environment, we retrieve the top-k locations of the last landmark and generate k path hypotheses from the starting location to the last landmark using the shortest path algorithm on the topological map of the environment. Each path hypothesis is represented by a sequence of panoramas. We then use dynamic programming to compute the alignment score between the sequence of panoramas and the sequence of landmark names, which match scores obtained from VLM. Finally, we compute the nDTW metric between the hypothesis that yields the highest alignment score to evaluate the path fidelity. We demonstrate superior performance compared to other approaches that use joint semantic maps like VLMaps vlmaps on the complex R2R-Habitat r2r instruction dataset and quantify in detail the effect of visual grounding on navigation performance.

Designing control policies whose performance level is guaranteed to remain above a given threshold in a span of environments is a critical feature for the adoption of reinforcement learning (RL) in real-world applications. The search for such robust policies is a notoriously difficult problem, related to the so-called dynamic model of transition function uncertainty, where the environment dynamics are allowed to change at each time step. But in practical cases, one is rather interested in robustness to a span of static transition models throughout interaction episodes. The static model is known to be harder to solve than the dynamic one, and seminal algorithms, such as robust value iteration, as well as most recent works on deep robust RL, build upon the dynamic model. In this work, we propose to revisit the static model. We suggest an analysis of why solving the static model under some mild hypotheses is a reasonable endeavor, based on an equivalence with the dynamic model, and formalize the general intuition that robust MDPs can be solved by tackling a series of static problems. We introduce a generic meta-algorithm called IWOCS, which incrementally identifies worst-case transition models so as to guide the search for a robust policy. Discussion on IWOCS sheds light on new ways to decouple policy optimization and adversarial transition functions and opens new perspectives for analysis. We derive a deep RL version of IWOCS and demonstrate it is competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms on classical benchmarks.

Domain Adaptation (DA) facilitates knowledge transfer from a source domain to a related target domain. This paper investigates a practical DA paradigm, namely Source data-Free Active Domain Adaptation (SFADA), where source data becomes inaccessible during adaptation, and a minimum amount of annotation budget is available in the target domain. Without referencing the source data, new challenges emerge in identifying the most informative target samples for labeling, establishing cross-domain alignment during adaptation, and ensuring continuous performance improvements through the iterative query-and-adaptation process. In response, we present learn from the learnt (LFTL), a novel paradigm for SFADA to leverage the learnt knowledge from the source pretrained model and actively iterated models without extra overhead. We propose Contrastive Active Sampling to learn from the hypotheses of the preceding model, thereby querying target samples that are both informative to the current model and persistently challenging throughout active learning. During adaptation, we learn from features of actively selected anchors obtained from previous intermediate models, so that the Visual Persistence-guided Adaptation can facilitate feature distribution alignment and active sample exploitation. Extensive experiments on three widely-used benchmarks show that our LFTL achieves state-of-the-art performance, superior computational efficiency and continuous improvements as the annotation budget increases. Our code is available at https://github.com/lyumengyao/lftl.

Interactions with virtual assistants typically start with a trigger phrase followed by a command. In this work, we explore the possibility of making these interactions more natural by eliminating the need for a trigger phrase. Our goal is to determine whether a user addressed the virtual assistant based on signals obtained from the streaming audio recorded by the device microphone. We address this task by combining 1-best hypotheses and decoder signals from an automatic speech recognition system with acoustic representations from an audio encoder as input features to a large language model (LLM). In particular, we are interested in data and resource efficient systems that require only a small amount of training data and can operate in scenarios with only a single frozen LLM available on a device. For this reason, our model is trained on 80k or less examples of multimodal data using a combination of low-rank adaptation and prefix tuning. We compare the proposed system to unimodal baselines and show that the multimodal approach achieves lower equal-error-rates (EERs), while using only a fraction of the training data. We also show that low-dimensional specialized audio representations lead to lower EERs than high-dimensional general audio representations.

Effective real-world assistance requires AI agents with robust Theory of Mind (ToM): inferring human mental states from their behavior. Despite recent advances, several key challenges remain, including (1) online inference with robust uncertainty updates over multiple hypotheses; (2) efficient reasoning suitable for real-time assistance; and (3) the lack of ground-truth mental state annotations in real-world domains. We address these challenges by introducing MindZero, a self-supervised reinforcement learning framework that trains multimodal large language models (MLLMs) for efficient and robust online mental reasoning. During training, the model is rewarded for generating mental state hypotheses that maximize the likelihood of observed actions estimated by a planner, similar to model-based ToM reasoning. This method thus eliminates the need for explicit mental state annotations. After training, MindZero internalizes model-based reasoning into fast single-pass inference. We evaluate MindZero against baselines across challenging mental reasoning and AI assistance tasks in gridworld and household domains. We found that LLMs alone are insufficient; model-based methods improve accuracy but are slow, costly, and limited by backbone MLLM capacity. In contrast, MindZero enhances MLLMs' intrinsic ToM ability and significantly outperforms model-based methods in both accuracy and efficiency, showing that mental reasoning can be effectively learned as a self-supervised skill.

The emergence of LLMs has ignited a fresh surge of breakthroughs in NLP applications, particularly in domains such as question-answering systems and text generation. As the need for longer context grows, a significant bottleneck in model deployment emerges due to the linear expansion of the Key-Value (KV) cache with the context length. Existing methods primarily rely on various hypotheses, such as sorting the KV cache based on attention scores for replacement or eviction, to compress the KV cache and improve model throughput. However, heuristics used by these strategies may wrongly evict essential KV cache, which can significantly degrade model performance. In this paper, we propose QAQ, a Quality Adaptive Quantization scheme for the KV cache. We theoretically demonstrate that key cache and value cache exhibit distinct sensitivities to quantization, leading to the formulation of separate quantization strategies for their non-uniform quantization. Through the integration of dedicated outlier handling, as well as an improved attention-aware approach, QAQ achieves up to 10x the compression ratio of the KV cache size with a neglectable impact on model performance. QAQ significantly reduces the practical hurdles of deploying LLMs, opening up new possibilities for longer-context applications. The code is available at github.com/ClubieDong/KVCacheQuantization.

Model dimension (d_{model}) is a fundamental hyperparameter in transformer language models, yet its role in setting the geometric limits of feature representation remains under-explored. Grounded in the Linear Representation and Superposition Hypotheses - which propose that models encode features as near-orthogonal directions in latent space - we develop a framework for estimating how many such directions a model can support. We first establish the embedding matrix as a measurable proxy for near-orthogonality constraints across the latent space: the boundary between meaningful token relationships and incidental similarity in the pairwise cosine similarity distribution gives a concrete estimate of the model's accepted deviation varepsilon from perfect orthogonality. Applying this metric across dozens of open-source models reveals two classes: models with high varepsilon whose embeddings lack near-orthogonal structure, and models with low varepsilon that maintain it. We then show that the standard Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma greatly underestimates the packing efficiency of trained representations, and derive an adjusted capacity formula in which the number of near-orthogonal directions depends on the ratio of vectors to dimensions (k/d) rather than the raw count - a single modification that cuts prediction error by two orders of magnitude with no extra parameters. Combining these results, we define representational capacity as an upper bound on the number of distinguishable directions available for features and embeddings in a model's latent space. Capacity is exponentially sensitive to varepsilon, and larger models favor tighter orthogonality constraints over maximizing raw capacity - a pattern compatible with several explanations (a stability-capacity trade-off, a ceiling on usable concepts, or confounds with model scale) that we leave to future work.

Inference-time planning with large language models frequently breaks under partial observability: when task-critical preconditions are not specified at query time, models tend to hallucinate missing facts or produce plans that violate hard constraints. We introduce Self-Querying Bidirectional Categorical Planning (SQ-BCP), which explicitly represents precondition status (Sat/Viol/Unk) and resolves unknowns via (i) targeted self-queries to an oracle/user or (ii) bridging hypotheses that establish the missing condition through an additional action. SQ-BCP performs bidirectional search and invokes a pullback-based verifier as a categorical certificate of goal compatibility, while using distance-based scores only for ranking and pruning. We prove that when the verifier succeeds and hard constraints pass deterministic checks, accepted plans are compatible with goal requirements; under bounded branching and finite resolution depth, SQ-BCP finds an accepting plan when one exists. Across WikiHow and RecipeNLG tasks with withheld preconditions, SQ-BCP reduces resource-violation rates to 14.9\% and 5.8\% (vs.\ 26.0\% and 15.7\% for the best baseline), while maintaining competitive reference quality.

Reasoning is a core capability in artificial intelligence systems, for which large language models (LLMs) have recently shown remarkable progress. However, most work focuses exclusively on deductive reasoning, which is problematic since other types of reasoning are also essential in solving real-world problems, and they are less explored. This work focuses on evaluating LLMs' inductive and abductive reasoning capabilities. We introduce a programmable and synthetic dataset, InAbHyD (pronounced in-a-bid), where each reasoning example consists of an incomplete world model and a set of observations. The task for the intelligent agent is to produce hypotheses to explain observations under the incomplete world model to solve each reasoning example. We propose a new metric to evaluate the quality of hypotheses based on Occam's Razor. We evaluate and analyze some state-of-the-art LLMs. Our analysis shows that LLMs can perform inductive and abductive reasoning in simple scenarios, but struggle with complex world models and producing high-quality hypotheses, even with popular reasoning-enhancing techniques such as in-context learning and RLVR.

We present a novel method for symbolic regression (SR), the task of searching for compact programmatic hypotheses that best explain a dataset. The problem is commonly solved using genetic algorithms; we show that we can enhance such methods by inducing a library of abstract textual concepts. Our algorithm, called LaSR, uses zero-shot queries to a large language model (LLM) to discover and evolve concepts occurring in known high-performing hypotheses. We discover new hypotheses using a mix of standard evolutionary steps and LLM-guided steps (obtained through zero-shot LLM queries) conditioned on discovered concepts. Once discovered, hypotheses are used in a new round of concept abstraction and evolution. We validate LaSR on the Feynman equations, a popular SR benchmark, as well as a set of synthetic tasks. On these benchmarks, LaSR substantially outperforms a variety of state-of-the-art SR approaches based on deep learning and evolutionary algorithms. Moreover, we show that LaSR can be used to discover a novel and powerful scaling law for LLMs.

Deep-learning models can extract a rich assortment of features from data. Which features a model uses depends not only on predictivity-how reliably a feature indicates train-set labels-but also on availability-how easily the feature can be extracted, or leveraged, from inputs. The literature on shortcut learning has noted examples in which models privilege one feature over another, for example texture over shape and image backgrounds over foreground objects. Here, we test hypotheses about which input properties are more available to a model, and systematically study how predictivity and availability interact to shape models' feature use. We construct a minimal, explicit generative framework for synthesizing classification datasets with two latent features that vary in predictivity and in factors we hypothesize to relate to availability, and quantify a model's shortcut bias-its over-reliance on the shortcut (more available, less predictive) feature at the expense of the core (less available, more predictive) feature. We find that linear models are relatively unbiased, but introducing a single hidden layer with ReLU or Tanh units yields a bias. Our empirical findings are consistent with a theoretical account based on Neural Tangent Kernels. Finally, we study how models used in practice trade off predictivity and availability in naturalistic datasets, discovering availability manipulations which increase models' degree of shortcut bias. Taken together, these findings suggest that the propensity to learn shortcut features is a fundamental characteristic of deep nonlinear architectures warranting systematic study given its role in shaping how models solve tasks.

Large-scale datasets for natural language inference are created by presenting crowd workers with a sentence (premise), and asking them to generate three new sentences (hypotheses) that it entails, contradicts, or is logically neutral with respect to. We show that, in a significant portion of such data, this protocol leaves clues that make it possible to identify the label by looking only at the hypothesis, without observing the premise. Specifically, we show that a simple text categorization model can correctly classify the hypothesis alone in about 67% of SNLI (Bowman et. al, 2015) and 53% of MultiNLI (Williams et. al, 2017). Our analysis reveals that specific linguistic phenomena such as negation and vagueness are highly correlated with certain inference classes. Our findings suggest that the success of natural language inference models to date has been overestimated, and that the task remains a hard open problem.

We introduce MentalThink, a visual-symbolic reasoning paradigm that equips Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) with an executable mechanism for "mental" visualization. The core of MentalThink is a think-with-SVG pipeline, where the model learns to generate, render, and interpret scalable vector graphics (SVG) code as an intermediate visual representation for multi-turn reasoning. By creating structured vector sketches, the model can externalize spatial hypotheses, inspect them through deterministic rendering, and reason within a constrained geometric space, effectively mimicking the human process of mental imagery. We instantiate this paradigm through a two-stage training framework, combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) for SVG syntactic alignment with multi-turn Reinforcement Learning (RL) to encourage iterative inspection, revision, and refinement of intermediate visual hypotheses. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that MentalThink achieves superior performance on spatial understanding and reasoning benchmarks (e.g., 55.1% on VSIBench, 76.0% on MindCube), showing that executable vector graphics provide a verifiable visual workspace for dynamic perspective taking, visual reflection, and compositional scene construction.

Traditional scientific discovery relies on an iterative hypothesise-experiment-refine cycle that has driven progress for centuries, but its intuitive, ad-hoc implementation often wastes resources, yields inefficient designs, and misses critical insights. This tutorial presents Bayesian Optimisation (BO), a principled probability-driven framework that formalises and automates this core scientific cycle. BO uses surrogate models (e.g., Gaussian processes) to model empirical observations as evolving hypotheses, and acquisition functions to guide experiment selection, balancing exploitation of known knowledge and exploration of uncharted domains to eliminate guesswork and manual trial-and-error. We first frame scientific discovery as an optimisation problem, then unpack BO's core components, end-to-end workflows, and real-world efficacy via case studies in catalysis, materials science, organic synthesis, and molecule discovery. We also cover critical technical extensions for scientific applications, including batched experimentation, heteroscedasticity, contextual optimisation, and human-in-the-loop integration. Tailored for a broad audience, this tutorial bridges AI advances in BO with practical natural science applications, offering tiered content to empower cross-disciplinary researchers to design more efficient experiments and accelerate principled scientific discovery.

Short-term anticipation in egocentric video requires more than recognizing the current scene: a system must infer which object the camera wearer will contact, which action will follow, and how soon the contact will happen. This report describes FROST-STA, our submission to the Ego4D Short-Term Object Interaction Anticipation (STA) Challenge at EgoVis 2026. For each query time, the model produces a ranked set of structured hypotheses containing an active-object box, noun label, verb label, time-to-contact (TTC), and confidence. FROST-STA builds on the V-JEPA 2.1 STA evaluation protocol, but adapts it to the challenge by using object-centric decoding, multi-head prediction, and a submission-oriented training and ensembling recipe. We keep the V-JEPA 2.1 ViT-G backbone fixed and extract two dense token streams: video tokens from a short clip resized to 384 pixels before the query, and image tokens from the last observed high-resolution frame. A compact alignment module, consisting of an attentive probe and frame-guided temporal pooling, maps the clip representation onto the spatial reference of the final frame before fusing it with image features. The fused maps are decoded by Faster R-CNN-style STA heads that estimate box offsets, nouns, verbs, TTC values, and interaction quality. For the final leaderboard entry, we train for 25 epochs with the official training split plus additional permitted validation annotations, and combine predictions across eight heads and checkpoints from epochs 15-25. FROST-STA obtains 5.13 Overall Top-5 mAP on the official test server, ranking second in the challenge and showing that frozen dense image-video features can serve as a strong basis for object-level interaction forecasting.

Scientific discovery is an inherently creative and uncertain process, requiring reasoning beyond the recall of known knowledge. While many benchmarks have been proposed to evaluate large language model (LLM) performance on deep research tasks via multi-hop retrieval, their innovative reasoning abilities essential for true scientific discovery remain largely untested. We introduce a benchmark framework for evaluating model performance in scientific discovery and reasoning, building up from a raw problem to the classical null hypothesis test. In our framework, models initially receive only the topic and research question from a recent paper, with technical details progressively revealed. At each stage of information disclosure, the model is tasked with generating hypotheses that address the research question, which is compared with the conclusions from the original paper and evaluated via automated semantic similarity of constituent atomic claims. This progressive evaluation of semantic divergence from ground-truth conclusions enables assessment of a model's innovativeness (under minimal information) to grounded reasoning capabilities (under full experimental details), both critical for using LLMs for scientific discovery purposes. Our framework provides a foundation for systematically evaluating scientific reasoning and discovery capabilities in LLMs, crucial for advancing the development of next-generation AI scientist/co-scientist systems. Specifically, here we evaluate GPT-5, GPT-5.4, Gemini 2.5 pro, and Gemini 3.1 pro preview across 45 papers spanning bioactive materials, mechanical materials, and nanomaterials. We find that GPT-5.4 and Gemini 3.1 pro outperform their previous generation counterparts as expected, and GPT-5.4 in particular maintains 0.7 F1 score alignment with ground truth conclusions even under minimal context.

We present a novel approach to feature labeling using gradient descent in token-space. While existing methods typically use language models to generate hypotheses about feature meanings, our method directly optimizes label representations by using a language model as a discriminator to predict feature activations. We formulate this as a multi-objective optimization problem in token-space, balancing prediction accuracy, entropy minimization, and linguistic naturalness. Our proof-of-concept experiments demonstrate successful convergence to interpretable single-token labels across diverse domains, including features for detecting animals, mammals, Chinese text, and numbers. Although our current implementation is constrained to single-token labels and relatively simple features, the results suggest that token-space gradient descent could become a valuable addition to the interpretability researcher's toolkit.

Traditionally, monocular 3D human pose estimation employs a machine learning model to predict the most likely 3D pose for a given input image. However, a single image can be highly ambiguous and induces multiple plausible solutions for the 2D-3D lifting step which results in overly confident 3D pose predictors. To this end, we propose DiffPose, a conditional diffusion model, that predicts multiple hypotheses for a given input image. In comparison to similar approaches, our diffusion model is straightforward and avoids intensive hyperparameter tuning, complex network structures, mode collapse, and unstable training. Moreover, we tackle a problem of the common two-step approach that first estimates a distribution of 2D joint locations via joint-wise heatmaps and consecutively approximates them based on first- or second-moment statistics. Since such a simplification of the heatmaps removes valid information about possibly correct, though labeled unlikely, joint locations, we propose to represent the heatmaps as a set of 2D joint candidate samples. To extract information about the original distribution from these samples we introduce our embedding transformer that conditions the diffusion model. Experimentally, we show that DiffPose slightly improves upon the state of the art for multi-hypothesis pose estimation for simple poses and outperforms it by a large margin for highly ambiguous poses.

A shared goal of several machine learning communities like continual learning, meta-learning and transfer learning, is to design algorithms and models that efficiently and robustly adapt to unseen tasks. An even more ambitious goal is to build models that never stop adapting, and that become increasingly more efficient through time by suitably transferring the accrued knowledge. Beyond the study of the actual learning algorithm and model architecture, there are several hurdles towards our quest to build such models, such as the choice of learning protocol, metric of success and data needed to validate research hypotheses. In this work, we introduce the Never-Ending VIsual-classification Stream (NEVIS'22), a benchmark consisting of a stream of over 100 visual classification tasks, sorted chronologically and extracted from papers sampled uniformly from computer vision proceedings spanning the last three decades. The resulting stream reflects what the research community thought was meaningful at any point in time, and it serves as an ideal test bed to assess how well models can adapt to new tasks, and do so better and more efficiently as time goes by. Despite being limited to classification, the resulting stream has a rich diversity of tasks from OCR, to texture analysis, scene recognition, and so forth. The diversity is also reflected in the wide range of dataset sizes, spanning over four orders of magnitude. Overall, NEVIS'22 poses an unprecedented challenge for current sequential learning approaches due to the scale and diversity of tasks, yet with a low entry barrier as it is limited to a single modality and well understood supervised learning problems. Moreover, we provide a reference implementation including strong baselines and an evaluation protocol to compare methods in terms of their trade-off between accuracy and compute.

Despite advances in depth estimation, flying points remain a persistent failure mode: near object boundaries, depth estimators often predict spurious 3D points in the empty space between foreground and background surfaces. We trace this artifact to a standard modeling choice: assigning each pixel a single depth hypothesis. At boundaries, a pixel can straddle a foreground and a background surface, so its true depth is ambiguous between the two. A model that predicts a single depth cannot keep both possibilities, so training instead pulls the prediction toward an intermediate depth that lies on neither surface. We address this with MDA, a mixture-density representation that lets the model predict multiple depth hypotheses and their associated probabilities for each pixel. Near boundaries, different hypotheses can align with different surfaces, and the decoded depth is selected from one of these hypotheses rather than placed in the empty space between them. Across different backbones, MDA substantially improves boundary reconstruction and largely removes flying-point artifacts even under severe input blur, while adding negligible runtime overhead. The same mixture-density framework naturally extends to transparent objects, where it predicts multiple depth layers at transparent pixels, and to sky regions, where a dedicated component separates the unbounded sky from finite-depth regions, producing flying-point-free skylines. Project Page: https://biansy000.github.io/mda-site/.

As a fundamental problem in computer vision, multi-view stereo (MVS) aims at recovering the 3D geometry of a target from a set of 2D images. Recent advances in MVS have shown that it is important to perceive non-local structured information for recovering geometry in low-textured areas. In this work, we propose a Hierarchical Prior Mining for Non-local Multi-View Stereo (HPM-MVS). The key characteristics are the following techniques that exploit non-local information to assist MVS: 1) A Non-local Extensible Sampling Pattern (NESP), which is able to adaptively change the size of sampled areas without becoming snared in locally optimal solutions. 2) A new approach to leverage non-local reliable points and construct a planar prior model based on K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), to obtain potential hypotheses for the regions where prior construction is challenging. 3) A Hierarchical Prior Mining (HPM) framework, which is used to mine extensive non-local prior information at different scales to assist 3D model recovery, this strategy can achieve a considerable balance between the reconstruction of details and low-textured areas. Experimental results on the ETH3D and Tanks \& Temples have verified the superior performance and strong generalization capability of our method. Our code will be released.

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used for long-form text generation. However, factual errors in the responses would undermine their reliability. Despite growing attention to LLM factuality, the effect of response length on factuality remains underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate this relationship by first introducing an automatic and bi-level long-form factuality evaluation framework, which achieves high agreement with human annotations while being cost-effective. Using this framework, we conduct controlled experiments and find that longer responses exhibit lower factual precision, confirming the presence of length bias. To explain this phenomenon, we empirically examine three hypotheses: error propagation, long context, and facts exhaustion. Our results reveal that facts exhaustion, where the model gradually exhausts more reliable knowledge, is the primary cause of factual degradation, rather than the other two hypotheses.

Urban and transportation research has long sought to uncover statistically meaningful relationships between key variables and societal outcomes such as road safety, to generate actionable insights that guide the planning, development, and renewal of urban and transportation systems. However, traditional workflows face several key challenges: (1) reliance on human experts to propose hypotheses, which is time-consuming and prone to confirmation bias; (2) limited interpretability, particularly in deep learning approaches; and (3) underutilization of unstructured data that can encode critical urban context. Given these limitations, we propose a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM)-based approach for interpretable hypothesis inference, enabling the automated generation, evaluation, and refinement of hypotheses concerning urban context and road safety outcomes. Our method leverages MLLMs to craft safety-relevant questions for street view images (SVIs), extract interpretable embeddings from their responses, and apply them in regression-based statistical models. UrbanX supports iterative hypothesis testing and refinement, guided by statistical evidence such as coefficient significance, thereby enabling rigorous scientific discovery of previously overlooked correlations between urban design and safety. Experimental evaluations on Manhattan street segments demonstrate that our approach outperforms pretrained deep learning models while offering full interpretability. Beyond road safety, UrbanX can serve as a general-purpose framework for urban scientific discovery, extracting structured insights from unstructured urban data across diverse socioeconomic and environmental outcomes. This approach enhances model trustworthiness for policy applications and establishes a scalable, statistically grounded pathway for interpretable knowledge discovery in urban and transportation studies.

Spontaneous speech emotion data usually contain perceptual grades where graders assign emotion score after listening to the speech files. Such perceptual grades introduce uncertainty in labels due to grader opinion variation. Grader variation is addressed by using consensus grades as groundtruth, where the emotion with the highest vote is selected. Consensus grades fail to consider ambiguous instances where a speech sample may contain multiple emotions, as captured through grader opinion uncertainty. We demonstrate that using the probability density function of the emotion grades as targets instead of the commonly used consensus grades, provide better performance on benchmark evaluation sets compared to results reported in the literature. We show that a saliency driven foundation model (FM) representation selection helps to train a state-of-the-art speech emotion model for both dimensional and categorical emotion recognition. Comparing representations obtained from different FMs, we observed that focusing on overall test-set performance can be deceiving, as it fails to reveal the models generalization capacity across speakers and gender. We demonstrate that performance evaluation across multiple test-sets and performance analysis across gender and speakers are useful in assessing usefulness of emotion models. Finally, we demonstrate that label uncertainty and data-skew pose a challenge to model evaluation, where instead of using the best hypothesis, it is useful to consider the 2- or 3-best hypotheses.

Can we synthesize 3D humans interacting with scenes without learning from any 3D human-scene interaction data? We propose GenZI, the first zero-shot approach to generating 3D human-scene interactions. Key to GenZI is our distillation of interaction priors from large vision-language models (VLMs), which have learned a rich semantic space of 2D human-scene compositions. Given a natural language description and a coarse point location of the desired interaction in a 3D scene, we first leverage VLMs to imagine plausible 2D human interactions inpainted into multiple rendered views of the scene. We then formulate a robust iterative optimization to synthesize the pose and shape of a 3D human model in the scene, guided by consistency with the 2D interaction hypotheses. In contrast to existing learning-based approaches, GenZI circumvents the conventional need for captured 3D interaction data, and allows for flexible control of the 3D interaction synthesis with easy-to-use text prompts. Extensive experiments show that our zero-shot approach has high flexibility and generality, making it applicable to diverse scene types, including both indoor and outdoor environments.

Many cognitive approaches to well-being, such as recognizing and reframing unhelpful thoughts, have received considerable empirical support over the past decades, yet still lack truly widespread adoption in self-help format. A barrier to that adoption is a lack of adequately specific and diverse dedicated practice material. This work examines whether current language models can be leveraged to both produce a virtually unlimited quantity of practice material illustrating standard unhelpful thought patterns matching specific given contexts, and generate suitable positive reframing proposals. We propose PATTERNREFRAME, a novel dataset of about 10k examples of thoughts containing unhelpful thought patterns conditioned on a given persona, accompanied by about 27k positive reframes. By using this dataset to train and/or evaluate current models, we show that existing models can already be powerful tools to help generate an abundance of tailored practice material and hypotheses, with no or minimal additional model training required.

Instruction-driven image editing with unified multimodal generative models has advanced rapidly, yet their underlying visual reasoning remains limited, leading to suboptimal performance on reasoning-centric edits. Reinforcement learning (RL) has been investigated for improving the quality of image editing, but it faces three key challenges: (1) limited reasoning exploration confined to denoising stochasticity, (2) biased reward fusion, and (3) unstable VLM-based instruction rewards. In this work, we propose ThinkRL-Edit, a reasoning-centric RL framework that decouples visual reasoning from image synthesis and expands reasoning exploration beyond denoising. To the end, we introduce Chain-of-Thought (CoT)-based reasoning sampling with planning and reflection stages prior to generation in online sampling, compelling the model to explore multiple semantic hypotheses and validate their plausibility before committing to a visual outcome. To avoid the failures of weighted aggregation, we propose an unbiased chain preference grouping strategy across multiple reward dimensions. Moreover, we replace interval-based VLM scores with a binary checklist, yielding more precise, lower-variance, and interpretable rewards for complex reasoning. Experiments show our method significantly outperforms prior work on reasoning-centric image editing, producing instruction-faithful, visually coherent, and semantically grounded edits.

Interactions with virtual assistants typically start with a predefined trigger phrase followed by the user command. To make interactions with the assistant more intuitive, we explore whether it is feasible to drop the requirement that users must begin each command with a trigger phrase. We explore this task in three ways: First, we train classifiers using only acoustic information obtained from the audio waveform. Second, we take the decoder outputs of an automatic speech recognition (ASR) system, such as 1-best hypotheses, as input features to a large language model (LLM). Finally, we explore a multimodal system that combines acoustic and lexical features, as well as ASR decoder signals in an LLM. Using multimodal information yields relative equal-error-rate improvements over text-only and audio-only models of up to 39% and 61%. Increasing the size of the LLM and training with low-rank adaption leads to further relative EER reductions of up to 18% on our dataset.

Despite its simplicity and efficacy, the high token expenditure of self-consistency can limit its practical utility. Here we investigate if self-consistency can be made more token-efficient for long chain-of-thought reasoning tasks, while preserving its parallelism, through early hypothesis pruning. Concretely, we generate all solutions in parallel, but periodically prune intermediate hypotheses that are deemed unnecessary based on two lightweight indicators: (a) the model's own confidence in individual hypotheses, and (b) lexical coverage of all current hypotheses by candidate subsets that are under consideration for continued retention. We design a fast weighted set cover algorithm that utilizes the two indicators; our evaluation of five LLMs on three math benchmarks shows that this method can improve token efficiency for all models, by 10-35% in many cases.

Generating novel and creative scientific hypotheses is a cornerstone in achieving Artificial General Intelligence. Large language and reasoning models have the potential to aid in the systematic creation, selection, and validation of scientifically informed hypotheses. However, current foundation models often struggle to produce scientific ideas that are both novel and feasible. One reason is the lack of a dedicated dataset that frames Scientific Hypothesis Generation (SHG) as a Natural Language Generation (NLG) task. In this paper, we introduce HypoGen, the first dataset of approximately 5500 structured problem-hypothesis pairs extracted from top-tier computer science conferences structured with a Bit-Flip-Spark schema, where the Bit is the conventional assumption, the Spark is the key insight or conceptual leap, and the Flip is the resulting counterproposal. HypoGen uniquely integrates an explicit Chain-of-Reasoning component that reflects the intellectual process from Bit to Flip. We demonstrate that framing hypothesis generation as conditional language modelling, with the model fine-tuned on Bit-Flip-Spark and the Chain-of-Reasoning (and where, at inference, we only provide the Bit), leads to improvements in the overall quality of the hypotheses. Our evaluation employs automated metrics and LLM judge rankings for overall quality assessment. We show that by fine-tuning on our HypoGen dataset we improve the novelty, feasibility, and overall quality of the generated hypotheses. The HypoGen dataset is publicly available at huggingface.co/datasets/UniverseTBD/hypogen-dr1.

The discovery of novel mechanical metamaterials, whose properties are dominated by their engineered structures rather than chemical composition, is a knowledge-intensive and resource-demanding process. To accelerate the design of novel metamaterials, we present MetaScientist, a human-in-the-loop system that integrates advanced AI capabilities with expert oversight with two primary phases: (1) hypothesis generation, where the system performs complex reasoning to generate novel and scientifically sound hypotheses, supported with domain-specific foundation models and inductive biases retrieved from existing literature; (2) 3D structure synthesis, where a 3D structure is synthesized with a novel 3D diffusion model based on the textual hypothesis and refined it with a LLM-based refinement model to achieve better structure properties. At each phase, domain experts iteratively validate the system outputs, and provide feedback and supplementary materials to ensure the alignment of the outputs with scientific principles and human preferences. Through extensive evaluation from human scientists, MetaScientist is able to deliver novel and valid mechanical metamaterial designs that have the potential to be highly impactful in the metamaterial field.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown significant potential in scientific disciplines such as biomedicine, particularly in hypothesis generation, where they can analyze vast literature, identify patterns, and suggest research directions. However, a key challenge lies in evaluating the truthfulness of generated hypotheses, as verifying their accuracy often requires substantial time and resources. Additionally, the hallucination problem in LLMs can lead to the generation of hypotheses that appear plausible but are ultimately incorrect, undermining their reliability. To facilitate the systematic study of these challenges, we introduce TruthHypo, a benchmark for assessing the capabilities of LLMs in generating truthful biomedical hypotheses, and KnowHD, a knowledge-based hallucination detector to evaluate how well hypotheses are grounded in existing knowledge. Our results show that LLMs struggle to generate truthful hypotheses. By analyzing hallucinations in reasoning steps, we demonstrate that the groundedness scores provided by KnowHD serve as an effective metric for filtering truthful hypotheses from the diverse outputs of LLMs. Human evaluations further validate the utility of KnowHD in identifying truthful hypotheses and accelerating scientific discovery. Our data and source code are available at https://github.com/Teddy-XiongGZ/TruthHypo.

Hypothesis ranking is a crucial component of automated scientific discovery, particularly in natural sciences where wet-lab experiments are costly and throughput-limited. Existing approaches focus on pre-experiment ranking, relying solely on large language model's internal reasoning without incorporating empirical outcomes from experiments. We introduce the task of experiment-guided ranking, which aims to prioritize candidate hypotheses based on the results of previously tested ones. However, developing such strategies is challenging due to the impracticality of repeatedly conducting real experiments in natural science domains. To address this, we propose a simulator grounded in three domain-informed assumptions, modeling hypothesis performance as a function of similarity to a known ground truth hypothesis, perturbed by noise. We curate a dataset of 124 chemistry hypotheses with experimentally reported outcomes to validate the simulator. Building on this simulator, we develop a pseudo experiment-guided ranking method that clusters hypotheses by shared functional characteristics and prioritizes candidates based on insights derived from simulated experimental feedback. Experiments show that our method outperforms pre-experiment baselines and strong ablations.

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our position is that causal inference specifies what constitutes a valid mapping from model activations to invariant high-level structures, the data or assumptions needed to achieve it, and the inferences it can support. Specifically, Pearl's causal hierarchy clarifies what an interpretability study can justify. Observations establish associations between model behaviour and internal components. Interventions (e.g., ablations or activation patching) support claims how these edits affect a behavioural metric (e.g., average change in token probabilities) over a set of prompts. However, counterfactual claims -- i.e., asking what the model output would have been for the same prompt under an unobserved intervention -- remain largely unverifiable without controlled supervision. We show how causal representation learning (CRL) operationalises this hierarchy, specifying which variables are recoverable from activations and under what assumptions. Together, these motivate a diagnostic framework that helps practitioners select methods and evaluations matching claims to evidence such that findings generalise.

Li et al. (2023) used the Othello board game as a test case for the ability of GPT-2 to induce world models, and were followed up by Nanda et al. (2023b). We briefly discuss the original experiments, expanding them to include more language models with more comprehensive probing. Specifically, we analyze sequences of Othello board states and train the model to predict the next move based on previous moves. We evaluate seven language models (GPT-2, T5, Bart, Flan-T5, Mistral, LLaMA-2, and Qwen2.5) on the Othello task and conclude that these models not only learn to play Othello, but also induce the Othello board layout. We find that all models achieve up to 99% accuracy in unsupervised grounding and exhibit high similarity in the board features they learned. This provides considerably stronger evidence for the Othello World Model Hypothesis than previous works.

Hypothesis generation is a fundamental step in scientific discovery, yet it is increasingly challenged by information overload and disciplinary fragmentation. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked growing interest in their potential to enhance and automate this process. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of hypothesis generation with LLMs by (i) reviewing existing methods, from simple prompting techniques to more complex frameworks, and proposing a taxonomy that categorizes these approaches; (ii) analyzing techniques for improving hypothesis quality, such as novelty boosting and structured reasoning; (iii) providing an overview of evaluation strategies; and (iv) discussing key challenges and future directions, including multimodal integration and human-AI collaboration. Our survey aims to serve as a reference for researchers exploring LLMs for hypothesis generation.

The surprising ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform well on complex reasoning with only few-shot chain-of-thought prompts is believed to emerge only in very large-scale models (100+ billion parameters). We show that such abilities can, in fact, be distilled down from GPT-3.5 (ge 175B) to T5 variants (le 11B). We propose model specialization, to specialize the model's ability towards a target task. The hypothesis is that large models (commonly viewed as larger than 100B) have strong modeling power, but are spread on a large spectrum of tasks. Small models (commonly viewed as smaller than 10B) have limited model capacity, but if we concentrate their capacity on a specific target task, the model can achieve a decent improved performance. We use multi-step math reasoning as our testbed because it is a very typical emergent ability. We show two important aspects of model abilities: (1). there exists a very complex balance/ tradeoff between language models' multi-dimensional abilities; (2). by paying the price of decreased generic ability, we can clearly lift up the scaling curve of models smaller than 10B towards a specialized multi-step math reasoning ability. We further give comprehensive discussions about important design choices for better generalization, including the tuning data format, the start model checkpoint, and a new model selection method. We hope our practice and discoveries can serve as an important attempt towards specialized smaller models in the new research paradigm set by LLMs.

Hypothetical induction is recognized as the main reasoning type when scientists make observations about the world and try to propose hypotheses to explain those observations. Past research on hypothetical induction is under a constrained setting: (1) the observation annotations in the dataset are carefully manually handpicked sentences (resulting in a close-domain setting); and (2) the ground truth hypotheses are mostly commonsense knowledge, making the task less challenging. In this work, we tackle these problems by proposing the first dataset for social science academic hypotheses discovery, with the final goal to create systems that automatically generate valid, novel, and helpful scientific hypotheses, given only a pile of raw web corpus. Unlike previous settings, the new dataset requires (1) using open-domain data (raw web corpus) as observations; and (2) proposing hypotheses even new to humanity. A multi-module framework is developed for the task, including three different feedback mechanisms to boost performance, which exhibits superior performance in terms of both GPT-4 based and expert-based evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work showing that LLMs are able to generate novel (''not existing in literature'') and valid (''reflecting reality'') scientific hypotheses.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in automating scientific hypothesis generation, yet existing approaches primarily yield coarse-grained hypotheses lacking critical methodological and experimental details. We introduce and formally define the novel task of fine-grained scientific hypothesis discovery, which entails generating detailed, experimentally actionable hypotheses from coarse initial research directions. We frame this as a combinatorial optimization problem and investigate the upper limits of LLMs' capacity to solve it when maximally leveraged. Specifically, we explore four foundational questions: (1) how to best harness an LLM's internal heuristics to formulate the fine-grained hypothesis it itself would judge as the most promising among all the possible hypotheses it might generate, based on its own internal scoring-thus defining a latent reward landscape over the hypothesis space; (2) whether such LLM-judged better hypotheses exhibit stronger alignment with ground-truth hypotheses; (3) whether shaping the reward landscape using an ensemble of diverse LLMs of similar capacity yields better outcomes than defining it with repeated instances of the strongest LLM among them; and (4) whether an ensemble of identical LLMs provides a more reliable reward landscape than a single LLM. To address these questions, we propose a hierarchical search method that incrementally proposes and integrates details into the hypothesis, progressing from general concepts to specific experimental configurations. We show that this hierarchical process smooths the reward landscape and enables more effective optimization. Empirical evaluations on a new benchmark of expert-annotated fine-grained hypotheses from recent chemistry literature show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines.

We describe HypotheSAEs, a general method to hypothesize interpretable relationships between text data (e.g., headlines) and a target variable (e.g., clicks). HypotheSAEs has three steps: (1) train a sparse autoencoder on text embeddings to produce interpretable features describing the data distribution, (2) select features that predict the target variable, and (3) generate a natural language interpretation of each feature (e.g., "mentions being surprised or shocked") using an LLM. Each interpretation serves as a hypothesis about what predicts the target variable. Compared to baselines, our method better identifies reference hypotheses on synthetic datasets (at least +0.06 in F1) and produces more predictive hypotheses on real datasets (~twice as many significant findings), despite requiring 1-2 orders of magnitude less compute than recent LLM-based methods. HypotheSAEs also produces novel discoveries on two well-studied tasks: explaining partisan differences in Congressional speeches and identifying drivers of engagement with online headlines.

Model cards describe model behavior through a mixture of textual descriptions and structured artifacts, including performance, configuration, and dataset tables. Existing model search systems rely predominantly on semantic similarity over text, which can produce homogeneous result sets and limit exploration of alternatives. We argue that model search is inherently comparative: users want models that are task-aligned yet differentiated in measurable ways. We hypothesize that this balance requires retrieval over condensed, high-quality evidence rather than verbose descriptions, and much of that evidence is concentrated in structured tables. We present StructuredSemanticSearch, a table-driven model search framework built on the ModelTables benchmark. Given a query, StructuredSemanticSearch combines a semantic baseline for task alignment with a structure-aware pipeline that discovers query-related model-card tables using table discovery operators such as unionability, joinability, and keyword search. Retrieved tables are mapped back to model cards under a controlled top-k budget, enabling fair comparison between text-based and table-based retrieval. Beyond retrieval, StructuredSemanticSearch adapts table integration to the model-table domain through orientation-aware integration, producing compact integrated views of tables from partially overlapping and sometimes transposed evidence tables. For evaluation, we introduce a nugget-based, auditable protocol that extracts compact evidence items from model cards, matches queries to condition- or intent-specific nuggets, and measures evidence coverage and diversity over retrieved model-card candidate sets. This protocol also provides a scalable path toward approximate, evidence-based labeling in dynamic model lakes. Experiments on 597 model-recommendation queries show improved nugget coverage for the structure-aware pipeline than semantic baseline

There is growing excitement about the potential of Language Models (LMs) to accelerate scientific discovery. Falsifying hypotheses is key to scientific progress, as it allows claims to be iteratively refined over time. This process requires significant researcher effort, reasoning, and ingenuity. Yet current benchmarks for LMs predominantly assess their ability to generate solutions rather than challenge them. We advocate for developing benchmarks that evaluate this inverse capability - creating counterexamples for subtly incorrect solutions. To demonstrate this approach, we start with the domain of algorithmic problem solving, where counterexamples can be evaluated automatically using code execution. Specifically, we introduce REFUTE, a dynamically updating benchmark that includes recent problems and incorrect submissions from programming competitions, where human experts successfully identified counterexamples. Our analysis finds that the best reasoning agents, even OpenAI o3-mini (high) with code execution feedback, can create counterexamples for only <9% of incorrect solutions in REFUTE, even though ratings indicate its ability to solve up to 48% of these problems from scratch. We hope our work spurs progress in evaluating and enhancing LMs' ability to falsify incorrect solutions - a capability that is crucial for both accelerating research and making models self-improve through reliable reflective reasoning.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Contemporary automated scientific discovery has focused on agents for generating scientific experiments, while systems that perform higher-level scientific activities such as theory building remain underexplored. In this work, we formulate the problem of synthesizing theories consisting of qualitative and quantitative laws from large corpora of scientific literature. We study theory generation at scale, using 13.7k source papers to synthesize 2.9k theories, examining how generation using literature-grounding versus parametric knowledge, and accuracy-focused versus novelty-focused generation objectives change theory properties. Our experiments show that, compared to using parametric LLM memory for generation, our literature-supported method creates theories that are significantly better at both matching existing evidence and at predicting future results from 4.6k subsequently-written papers

Building upon our previous investigations of O1 replication (Part 1: Journey Learning [Qin et al., 2024] and Part 2: Distillation [Huang et al., 2024]), this work explores the potential of inference-time scaling in large language models (LLMs) for medical reasoning tasks, ranging from diagnostic decision-making to treatment planning. Through extensive experiments on medical benchmarks of varying complexity (MedQA, Medbullets, and JAMA Clinical Challenges), our investigation reveals several key insights: (1) Increasing inference time does lead to improved performance. With a modest training set of 500 samples, our model yields substantial performance improvements of 6%-11%. (2) Task complexity directly correlates with the required length of reasoning chains, confirming the necessity of extended thought processes for challenging problems. (3) The differential diagnoses generated by our model adhere to the principles of the hypothetico-deductive method, producing a list of potential conditions that may explain a patient's symptoms and systematically narrowing these possibilities by evaluating the evidence. These findings demonstrate the promising synergy between inference-time scaling and journey learning in advancing LLMs' real-world clinical reasoning capabilities.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained popularity in time series forecasting, but their potential for anomaly detection remains largely unexplored. Our study investigates whether LLMs can understand and detect anomalies in time series data, focusing on zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Inspired by conjectures about LLMs' behavior from time series forecasting research, we formulate key hypotheses about LLMs' capabilities in time series anomaly detection. We design and conduct principled experiments to test each of these hypotheses. Our investigation reveals several surprising findings about LLMs for time series: 1. LLMs understand time series better as images rather than as text 2. LLMs did not demonstrate enhanced performance when prompted to engage in explicit reasoning about time series analysis 3. Contrary to common beliefs, LLM's understanding of time series do not stem from their repetition biases or arithmetic abilities 4. LLMs' behaviors and performance in time series analysis vary significantly across different model architectures This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of contemporary LLM capabilities in time series anomaly detection. Our results suggest that while LLMs can understand time series anomalies, many common conjectures based on their reasoning capabilities do not hold. Our code and data are available at `https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/AnomLLM/`.

There is growing interest in hypothesis generation with large language models (LLMs). However, fundamental questions remain: what makes a good hypothesis, and how can we systematically evaluate methods for hypothesis generation? To address this, we introduce HypoBench, a novel benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs and hypothesis generation methods across multiple aspects, including practical utility, generalizability, and hypothesis discovery rate. HypoBench includes 7 real-world tasks and 5 synthetic tasks with 194 distinct datasets. We evaluate four state-of-the-art LLMs combined with six existing hypothesis-generation methods. Overall, our results suggest that existing methods are capable of discovering valid and novel patterns in the data. However, the results from synthetic datasets indicate that there is still significant room for improvement, as current hypothesis generation methods do not fully uncover all relevant or meaningful patterns. Specifically, in synthetic settings, as task difficulty increases, performance significantly drops, with best models and methods only recovering 38.8% of the ground-truth hypotheses. These findings highlight challenges in hypothesis generation and demonstrate that HypoBench serves as a valuable resource for improving AI systems designed to assist scientific discovery.

The rapid growth of biomedical knowledge has outpaced our ability to efficiently extract insights and generate novel hypotheses. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising tool to revolutionize knowledge interaction and potentially accelerate biomedical discovery. In this paper, we present a comprehensive evaluation of LLMs as biomedical hypothesis generators. We construct a dataset of background-hypothesis pairs from biomedical literature, carefully partitioned into training, seen, and unseen test sets based on publication date to mitigate data contamination. Using this dataset, we assess the hypothesis generation capabilities of top-tier instructed models in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning settings. To enhance the exploration of uncertainty, a crucial aspect of scientific discovery, we incorporate tool use and multi-agent interactions in our evaluation framework. Furthermore, we propose four novel metrics grounded in extensive literature review to evaluate the quality of generated hypotheses, considering both LLM-based and human assessments. Our experiments yield two key findings: 1) LLMs can generate novel and validated hypotheses, even when tested on literature unseen during training, and 2) Increasing uncertainty through multi-agent interactions and tool use can facilitate diverse candidate generation and improve zero-shot hypothesis generation performance. However, we also observe that the integration of additional knowledge through few-shot learning and tool use may not always lead to performance gains, highlighting the need for careful consideration of the type and scope of external knowledge incorporated. These findings underscore the potential of LLMs as powerful aids in biomedical hypothesis generation and provide valuable insights to guide further research in this area.

The rapid advancement in capabilities of large language models (LLMs) raises a pivotal question: How can LLMs accelerate scientific discovery? This work tackles the crucial first stage of research, generating novel hypotheses. While recent work on automated hypothesis generation focuses on multi-agent frameworks and extending test-time compute, none of the approaches effectively incorporate transparency and steerability through a synergistic Human-in-the-loop (HITL) approach. To address this gap, we introduce IRIS: Interactive Research Ideation System, an open-source platform designed for researchers to leverage LLM-assisted scientific ideation. IRIS incorporates innovative features to enhance ideation, including adaptive test-time compute expansion via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), fine-grained feedback mechanism, and query-based literature synthesis. Designed to empower researchers with greater control and insight throughout the ideation process. We additionally conduct a user study with researchers across diverse disciplines, validating the effectiveness of our system in enhancing ideation. We open-source our code at https://github.com/Anikethh/IRIS-Interactive-Research-Ideation-System

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated potential in assisting scientific research, yet their ability to discover high-quality research hypotheses remains unexamined due to the lack of a dedicated benchmark. To address this gap, we introduce the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating LLMs with a near-sufficient set of sub-tasks of scientific discovery: inspiration retrieval, hypothesis composition, and hypothesis ranking. We develop an automated framework that extracts critical components - research questions, background surveys, inspirations, and hypotheses - from scientific papers across 12 disciplines, with expert validation confirming its accuracy. To prevent data contamination, we focus exclusively on papers published in 2024, ensuring minimal overlap with LLM pretraining data. Our evaluation reveals that LLMs perform well in retrieving inspirations, an out-of-distribution task, suggesting their ability to surface novel knowledge associations. This positions LLMs as "research hypothesis mines", capable of facilitating automated scientific discovery by generating innovative hypotheses at scale with minimal human intervention.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Large language models (LLMs) are on the rise for accelerating scientific discovery, most recently in advanced tasks such as generating valid scientific hypotheses. Yet in many discovery settings, the goal is not to identify a single best hypothesis since validation can be noisy and expensive, and scientists benefit from a set of high-quality alternative hypotheses that hedge against downstream uncertainty for the best solutions. Nevertheless, commonly used evolutionary search recipes tend to prioritize optimization over exploration in hypothesis generation, and the resulting selection pressure during the search process leads to diversity collapse. Motivated by these limitations, we formulate hypothesis search as a sampling problem, where the objective is to efficiently produce diverse, high-quality hypotheses under a fixed validation budget. Building on this perspective, we propose \ours, an evolutionary framework inspired by the classical parallel tempering algorithm that searches hypotheses at multiple temperature levels and enables principled information exchange across temperatures to improve exploration without disrupting convergence. Across domains including molecular discovery, equation discovery, and algorithm discovery, our approach consistently improves both hypothesis quality and diversity under the same validation budget, and produces candidates that remain robust under more expensive downstream computational validations.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. By working through a series of purely mental steps, we can make inferences we would not be capable of making directly -- despite the fact that we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate a series of intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they otherwise would. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences in order to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables improves inference, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis empirically in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables and that the combination of locally-structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

Recent advances in mechanistic interpretability have revealed that large language models (LLMs) develop internal representations corresponding not only to concrete entities but also distinct, human-understandable abstract concepts and behaviour. Moreover, these hidden features can be directly manipulated to steer model behaviour. However, it remains an open question whether this phenomenon is unique to models trained on inherently structured data (ie. language, images) or if it is a general property of foundation models. In this work, we investigate the internal representations of a large physics-focused foundation model. Inspired by recent work identifying single directions in activation space for complex behaviours in LLMs, we extract activation vectors from the model during forward passes over simulation datasets for different physical regimes. We then compute "delta" representations between the two regimes. These delta tensors act as concept directions in activation space, encoding specific physical features. By injecting these concept directions back into the model during inference, we can steer its predictions, demonstrating causal control over physical behaviours, such as inducing or removing some particular physical feature from a simulation. These results suggest that scientific foundation models learn generalised representations of physical principles. They do not merely rely on superficial correlations and patterns in the simulations. Our findings open new avenues for understanding and controlling scientific foundation models and has implications for AI-enabled scientific discovery.

In modern large-scale deep learning, a prevalent and effective workflow for solving low-data problems is adapting powerful pre-trained foundation models (FMs) to new tasks via parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT). However, while empirically effective, the resulting solutions lack generalisation guarantees to certify their accuracy - which may be required for ethical or legal reasons prior to deployment in high-importance applications. In this paper we develop a novel transfer learning approach that is designed to facilitate non-vacuous learning theoretic generalisation guarantees for downstream tasks, even in the low-shot regime. Specifically, we first use upstream tasks to train a distribution over PEFT parameters. We then learn the downstream task by a sample-and-evaluate procedure -- sampling plausible PEFTs from the trained diffusion model and selecting the one with the highest likelihood on the downstream data. Crucially, this confines our model hypothesis to a finite set of PEFT samples. In contrast to learning in the typical continuous hypothesis spaces of neural network weights, this facilitates tighter risk certificates. We instantiate our bound and show non-trivial generalization guarantees compared to existing learning approaches which lead to vacuous bounds in the low-shot regime.

Researchers have proposed a wide variety of model explanation approaches, but it remains unclear how most methods are related or when one method is preferable to another. We examine the literature and find that many methods are based on a shared principle of explaining by removing - essentially, measuring the impact of removing sets of features from a model. These methods vary in several respects, so we develop a framework for removal-based explanations that characterizes each method along three dimensions: 1) how the method removes features, 2) what model behavior the method explains, and 3) how the method summarizes each feature's influence. Our framework unifies 26 existing methods, including several of the most widely used approaches (SHAP, LIME, Meaningful Perturbations, permutation tests). Exposing the fundamental similarities between these methods empowers users to reason about which tools to use, and suggests promising directions for ongoing model explainability research.

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.