Daily Papers

The ability to separate signal from noise, and reason with clean abstractions, is critical to intelligence. With this ability, humans can efficiently perform real world tasks without considering all possible nuisance factors.How can artificial agents do the same? What kind of information can agents safely discard as noises? In this work, we categorize information out in the wild into four types based on controllability and relation with reward, and formulate useful information as that which is both controllable and reward-relevant. This framework clarifies the kinds information removed by various prior work on representation learning in reinforcement learning (RL), and leads to our proposed approach of learning a Denoised MDP that explicitly factors out certain noise distractors. Extensive experiments on variants of DeepMind Control Suite and RoboDesk demonstrate superior performance of our denoised world model over using raw observations alone, and over prior works, across policy optimization control tasks as well as the non-control task of joint position regression.

Recent advances in generative models have enabled high-quality 3D character reconstruction from multi-modal. However, animating these generated characters remains a challenging task, especially for complex elements like garments and hair, due to the lack of large-scale datasets and effective rigging methods. To address this gap, we curate AnimeRig, a large-scale dataset with detailed skeleton and skinning annotations. Building upon this, we propose DRiVE, a novel framework for generating and rigging 3D human characters with intricate structures. Unlike existing methods, DRiVE utilizes a 3D Gaussian representation, facilitating efficient animation and high-quality rendering. We further introduce GSDiff, a 3D Gaussian-based diffusion module that predicts joint positions as spatial distributions, overcoming the limitations of regression-based approaches. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DRiVE achieves precise rigging results, enabling realistic dynamics for clothing and hair, and surpassing previous methods in both quality and versatility. The code and dataset will be made public for academic use upon acceptance.

Scene coordinate regression (SCR) methods are a family of visual localization methods that directly regress 2D-3D matches for camera pose estimation. They are effective in small-scale scenes but face significant challenges in large-scale scenes that are further amplified in the absence of ground truth 3D point clouds for supervision. Here, the model can only rely on reprojection constraints and needs to implicitly triangulate the points. The challenges stem from a fundamental dilemma: The network has to be invariant to observations of the same landmark at different viewpoints and lighting conditions, etc., but at the same time discriminate unrelated but similar observations. The latter becomes more relevant and severe in larger scenes. In this work, we tackle this problem by introducing the concept of co-visibility to the network. We propose GLACE, which integrates pre-trained global and local encodings and enables SCR to scale to large scenes with only a single small-sized network. Specifically, we propose a novel feature diffusion technique that implicitly groups the reprojection constraints with co-visibility and avoids overfitting to trivial solutions. Additionally, our position decoder parameterizes the output positions for large-scale scenes more effectively. Without using 3D models or depth maps for supervision, our method achieves state-of-the-art results on large-scale scenes with a low-map-size model. On Cambridge landmarks, with a single model, we achieve 17% lower median position error than Poker, the ensemble variant of the state-of-the-art SCR method ACE. Code is available at: https://github.com/cvg/glace.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models that were initially proposed for realistic image generation have recently shown success in various perception tasks (e.g., object detection and image segmentation) and are increasingly gaining attention in computer vision. However, extending such models to multi-frame human pose estimation is non-trivial due to the presence of the additional temporal dimension in videos. More importantly, learning representations that focus on keypoint regions is crucial for accurate localization of human joints. Nevertheless, the adaptation of the diffusion-based methods remains unclear on how to achieve such objective. In this paper, we present DiffPose, a novel diffusion architecture that formulates video-based human pose estimation as a conditional heatmap generation problem. First, to better leverage temporal information, we propose SpatioTemporal Representation Learner which aggregates visual evidences across frames and uses the resulting features in each denoising step as a condition. In addition, we present a mechanism called Lookup-based MultiScale Feature Interaction that determines the correlations between local joints and global contexts across multiple scales. This mechanism generates delicate representations that focus on keypoint regions. Altogether, by extending diffusion models, we show two unique characteristics from DiffPose on pose estimation task: (i) the ability to combine multiple sets of pose estimates to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for challenging joints, and (ii) the ability to adjust the number of iterative steps for feature refinement without retraining the model. DiffPose sets new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks: PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

This paper addresses the challenge of localization of anatomical landmarks in knee X-ray images at different stages of osteoarthritis (OA). Landmark localization can be viewed as regression problem, where the landmark position is directly predicted by using the region of interest or even full-size images leading to large memory footprint, especially in case of high resolution medical images. In this work, we propose an efficient deep neural networks framework with an hourglass architecture utilizing a soft-argmax layer to directly predict normalized coordinates of the landmark points. We provide an extensive evaluation of different regularization techniques and various loss functions to understand their influence on the localization performance. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of transfer learning from low-budget annotations, and experimentally demonstrate that such approach is improving the accuracy of landmark localization. Compared to the prior methods, we validate our model on two datasets that are independent from the train data and assess the performance of the method for different stages of OA severity. The proposed approach demonstrates better generalization performance compared to the current state-of-the-art.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We present RigAnything, a novel autoregressive transformer-based model, which makes 3D assets rig-ready by probabilistically generating joints, skeleton topologies, and assigning skinning weights in a template-free manner. Unlike most existing auto-rigging methods, which rely on predefined skeleton template and are limited to specific categories like humanoid, RigAnything approaches the rigging problem in an autoregressive manner, iteratively predicting the next joint based on the global input shape and the previous prediction. While autoregressive models are typically used to generate sequential data, RigAnything extends their application to effectively learn and represent skeletons, which are inherently tree structures. To achieve this, we organize the joints in a breadth-first search (BFS) order, enabling the skeleton to be defined as a sequence of 3D locations and the parent index. Furthermore, our model improves the accuracy of position prediction by leveraging diffusion modeling, ensuring precise and consistent placement of joints within the hierarchy. This formulation allows the autoregressive model to efficiently capture both spatial and hierarchical relationships within the skeleton. Trained end-to-end on both RigNet and Objaverse datasets, RigAnything demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse object types, including humanoids, quadrupeds, marine creatures, insects, and many more, surpassing prior methods in quality, robustness, generalizability, and efficiency. Please check our website for more details: https://www.liuisabella.com/RigAnything.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Traditionally, monocular 3D human pose estimation employs a machine learning model to predict the most likely 3D pose for a given input image. However, a single image can be highly ambiguous and induces multiple plausible solutions for the 2D-3D lifting step which results in overly confident 3D pose predictors. To this end, we propose DiffPose, a conditional diffusion model, that predicts multiple hypotheses for a given input image. In comparison to similar approaches, our diffusion model is straightforward and avoids intensive hyperparameter tuning, complex network structures, mode collapse, and unstable training. Moreover, we tackle a problem of the common two-step approach that first estimates a distribution of 2D joint locations via joint-wise heatmaps and consecutively approximates them based on first- or second-moment statistics. Since such a simplification of the heatmaps removes valid information about possibly correct, though labeled unlikely, joint locations, we propose to represent the heatmaps as a set of 2D joint candidate samples. To extract information about the original distribution from these samples we introduce our embedding transformer that conditions the diffusion model. Experimentally, we show that DiffPose slightly improves upon the state of the art for multi-hypothesis pose estimation for simple poses and outperforms it by a large margin for highly ambiguous poses.

Object-centric reconstruction seeks to recover the 3D structure of a scene through composition of independent objects. While this independence can simplify modeling, it discards strong signals that could improve reconstruction, notably repetition where the same object model is seen multiple times in a scene, or across scans. We propose the Joint Reconstruction Model (JRM) to leverage repetition by framing object reconstruction as one of personalized generation: multiple observations share a common subject that should be consistent for all observations, while still adhering to the specific pose and state from each. Prior methods in this direction rely on explicit matching and rigid alignment across observations, making them sensitive to errors and difficult to extend to non-rigid transformations. In contrast, JRM is a 3D flow-matching generative model that implicitly aggregates unaligned observations in its latent space, learning to produce consistent and faithful reconstructions in a data-driven manner without explicit constraints. Evaluations on synthetic and real-world data show that JRM's implicit aggregation removes the need for explicit alignment, improves robustness to incorrect associations, and naturally handles non-rigid changes such as articulation. Overall, JRM outperforms both independent and alignment-based baselines in reconstruction quality.

Object pose estimation, which plays a vital role in robotics, augmented reality, and autonomous driving, has been of great interest in computer vision. Existing studies either require multi-stage pose regression or rely on 2D-3D feature matching. Though these approaches have shown promising results, they rely heavily on appearance information, requiring complex input (i.e., multi-view reference input, depth, or CAD models) and intricate pipeline (i.e., feature extraction-SfM-2D to 3D matching-PnP). We propose AxisPose, a model-free, matching-free, single-shot solution for robust 6D pose estimation, which fundamentally diverges from the existing paradigm. Unlike existing methods that rely on 2D-3D or 2D-2D matching using 3D techniques, such as SfM and PnP, AxisPose directly infers a robust 6D pose from a single view by leveraging a diffusion model to learn the latent axis distribution of objects without reference views. Specifically, AxisPose constructs an Axis Generation Module (AGM) to capture the latent geometric distribution of object axes through a diffusion model. The diffusion process is guided by injecting the gradient of geometric consistency loss into the noise estimation to maintain the geometric consistency of the generated tri-axis. With the generated tri-axis projection, AxisPose further adopts a Triaxial Back-projection Module (TBM) to recover the 6D pose from the object tri-axis. The proposed AxisPose achieves robust performance at the cross-instance level (i.e., one model for N instances) using only a single view as input without reference images, with great potential for generalization to unseen-object level.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

Joint Alignment (JA) of images aims to align a collection of images into a unified coordinate frame, such that semantically-similar features appear at corresponding spatial locations. Most existing approaches often require long training times, large-capacity models, and extensive hyperparameter tuning. We introduce FastJAM, a rapid, graph-based method that drastically reduces the computational complexity of joint alignment tasks. FastJAM leverages pairwise matches computed by an off-the-shelf image matcher, together with a rapid nonparametric clustering, to construct a graph representing intra- and inter-image keypoint relations. A graph neural network propagates and aggregates these correspondences, efficiently predicting per-image homography parameters via image-level pooling. Utilizing an inverse-compositional loss, that eliminates the need for a regularization term over the predicted transformations (and thus also obviates the hyperparameter tuning associated with such terms), FastJAM performs image JA quickly and effectively. Experimental results on several benchmarks demonstrate that FastJAM achieves results better than existing modern JA methods in terms of alignment quality, while reducing computation time from hours or minutes to mere seconds. Our code is available at our project webpage, https://bgu-cs-vil.github.io/FastJAM/

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x)=E[Ymid X=x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y-m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

In sports analytics, accurately capturing both the 3D locations and rotations of body joints is essential for understanding an athlete's biomechanics. While Human Mesh Recovery (HMR) models can estimate joint rotations, they often exhibit lower accuracy in joint localization compared to 3D Human Pose Estimation (HPE) models. Recent work addressed this limitation by combining a 3D HPE model with inverse kinematics (IK) to estimate both joint locations and rotations. However, IK is computationally expensive. To overcome this, we propose a novel 2D-to-3D uplifting model that directly estimates 3D human poses, including joint rotations, in a single forward pass. We investigate multiple rotation representations, loss functions, and training strategies - both with and without access to ground truth rotations. Our models achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in rotation estimation, are 150 times faster than the IK-based approach, and surpass HMR models in joint localization precision.

We propose a computationally efficient inferential procedure for longitudinal function-on-function regression. The method follows a marginal three-step approach: (1) fit massive pointwise longitudinal scalar-on-function regression models, (2) smooth the resulting estimates along the bivariate functional domain, and (3) compute confidence bands using either an analytic approach for Gaussian data or a cluster bootstrap for Gaussian or non-Gaussian data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves accurate estimation and valid inference, while substantially reducing computational burden compared to existing approaches. Methods are motivated by a physical activity intervention trial in older adults where high-dimensional wearable data were collected longitudinally across multiple visits. Our applications reveal significant increases in physical activity in the morning using interpersonal intervention strategies, but not intrapersonal strategies. The proposed methods are implemented in an R package.

Exploring spatial-temporal dependencies from observed motions is one of the core challenges of human motion prediction. Previous methods mainly focus on dedicated network structures to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. This paper considers a new direction by introducing a model learning framework with auxiliary tasks. In our auxiliary tasks, partial body joints' coordinates are corrupted by either masking or adding noise and the goal is to recover corrupted coordinates depending on the rest coordinates. To work with auxiliary tasks, we propose a novel auxiliary-adapted transformer, which can handle incomplete, corrupted motion data and achieve coordinate recovery via capturing spatial-temporal dependencies. Through auxiliary tasks, the auxiliary-adapted transformer is promoted to capture more comprehensive spatial-temporal dependencies among body joints' coordinates, leading to better feature learning. Extensive experimental results have shown that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods by remarkable margins of 7.2%, 3.7%, and 9.4% in terms of 3D mean per joint position error (MPJPE) on the Human3.6M, CMU Mocap, and 3DPW datasets, respectively. We also demonstrate that our method is more robust under data missing cases and noisy data cases. Code is available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/AuxFormer.

Motion generation from discrete quantization offers many advantages over continuous regression, but at the cost of inevitable approximation errors. Previous methods usually quantize the entire body pose into one code, which not only faces the difficulty in encoding all joints within one vector but also loses the spatial relationship between different joints. Differently, in this work we quantize each individual joint into one vector, which i) simplifies the quantization process as the complexity associated with a single joint is markedly lower than that of the entire pose; ii) maintains a spatial-temporal structure that preserves both the spatial relationships among joints and the temporal movement patterns; iii) yields a 2D token map, which enables the application of various 2D operations widely used in 2D images. Grounded in the 2D motion quantization, we build a spatial-temporal modeling framework, where 2D joint VQVAE, temporal-spatial 2D masking technique, and spatial-temporal 2D attention are proposed to take advantage of spatial-temporal signals among the 2D tokens. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous methods across different datasets, with a 26.6% decrease of FID on HumanML3D and a 29.9% decrease on KIT-ML. Project page: https://aigc3d.github.io/mogents.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

Despite the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) remain the gold-standard formalism for modeling systems under uncertainty. However, applying SDEs in practice is fraught with challenges: modeling risk is high, calibration is often brittle, and high-fidelity simulations are computationally expensive. This technical report introduces JointFM, a foundation model that inverts this paradigm. Instead of fitting SDEs to data, we sample an infinite stream of synthetic SDEs to train a generic model to predict future joint probability distributions directly. This approach establishes JointFM as the first foundation model for distributional predictions of coupled time series - requiring no task-specific calibration or finetuning. Despite operating in a purely zero-shot setting, JointFM reduces the energy loss by 14.2% relative to the strongest baseline when recovering oracle joint distributions generated by unseen synthetic SDEs.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

LiDAR relocalization plays a crucial role in many fields, including robotics, autonomous driving, and computer vision. LiDAR-based retrieval from a database typically incurs high computation storage costs and can lead to globally inaccurate pose estimations if the database is too sparse. On the other hand, pose regression methods take images or point clouds as inputs and directly regress global poses in an end-to-end manner. They do not perform database matching and are more computationally efficient than retrieval techniques. We propose HypLiLoc, a new model for LiDAR pose regression. We use two branched backbones to extract 3D features and 2D projection features, respectively. We consider multi-modal feature fusion in both Euclidean and hyperbolic spaces to obtain more effective feature representations. Experimental results indicate that HypLiLoc achieves state-of-the-art performance in both outdoor and indoor datasets. We also conduct extensive ablation studies on the framework design, which demonstrate the effectiveness of multi-modal feature extraction and multi-space embedding. Our code is released at: https://github.com/sijieaaa/HypLiLoc

A common approach to localize 3D human joints in a synchronized and calibrated multi-view setup consists of two-steps: (1) apply a 2D detector separately on each view to localize joints in 2D, and (2) perform robust triangulation on 2D detections from each view to acquire the 3D joint locations. However, in step 1, the 2D detector is limited to solving challenging cases which could potentially be better resolved in 3D, such as occlusions and oblique viewing angles, purely in 2D without leveraging any 3D information. Therefore, we propose the differentiable "epipolar transformer", which enables the 2D detector to leverage 3D-aware features to improve 2D pose estimation. The intuition is: given a 2D location p in the current view, we would like to first find its corresponding point p' in a neighboring view, and then combine the features at p' with the features at p, thus leading to a 3D-aware feature at p. Inspired by stereo matching, the epipolar transformer leverages epipolar constraints and feature matching to approximate the features at p'. Experiments on InterHand and Human3.6M show that our approach has consistent improvements over the baselines. Specifically, in the condition where no external data is used, our Human3.6M model trained with ResNet-50 backbone and image size 256 x 256 outperforms state-of-the-art by 4.23 mm and achieves MPJPE 26.9 mm.

Recently, diffusion-based methods for monocular 3D human pose estimation have achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance by directly regressing the 3D joint coordinates from the 2D pose sequence. Although some methods decompose the task into bone length and bone direction prediction based on the human anatomical skeleton to explicitly incorporate more human body prior constraints, the performance of these methods is significantly lower than that of the SOTA diffusion-based methods. This can be attributed to the tree structure of the human skeleton. Direct application of the disentangled method could amplify the accumulation of hierarchical errors, propagating through each hierarchy. Meanwhile, the hierarchical information has not been fully explored by the previous methods. To address these problems, a Disentangled Diffusion-based 3D Human Pose Estimation method with Hierarchical Spatial and Temporal Denoiser is proposed, termed DDHPose. In our approach: (1) We disentangle the 3D pose and diffuse the bone length and bone direction during the forward process of the diffusion model to effectively model the human pose prior. A disentanglement loss is proposed to supervise diffusion model learning. (2) For the reverse process, we propose Hierarchical Spatial and Temporal Denoiser (HSTDenoiser) to improve the hierarchical modeling of each joint. Our HSTDenoiser comprises two components: the Hierarchical-Related Spatial Transformer (HRST) and the Hierarchical-Related Temporal Transformer (HRTT). HRST exploits joint spatial information and the influence of the parent joint on each joint for spatial modeling, while HRTT utilizes information from both the joint and its hierarchical adjacent joints to explore the hierarchical temporal correlations among joints. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Andyen512/DDHPose

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Recent methods for arbitrary-skeleton motion capture from monocular video follow a factorized pipeline, where a Video-to-Pose network predicts joint positions and an analytical inverse-kinematics (IK) stage recovers joint rotations. While effective, this design is inherently limited, since joint positions do not fully determine rotations and leave degrees of freedom such as bone-axis twist ambiguous, and the non-differentiable IK stage prevents the system from adapting to noisy predictions or optimizing for the final animation objective. In this work, we present the first fully end-to-end framework in which both Video-to-Pose and Pose-to-Rotation are learnable and jointly optimized. We observe that the ambiguity in pose-to-rotation mapping arises from missing coordinate system information: the same joint positions can correspond to different rotations under different rest poses and local axis conventions. To resolve this, we introduce a reference pose-rotation pair from the target asset, which, together with the rest pose, not only anchors the mapping but also defines the underlying rotation coordinate system. This formulation turns rotation prediction into a well-constrained conditional problem and enables effective learning. In addition, our model predicts joint positions directly from video without relying on mesh intermediates, improving both robustness and efficiency. Both stages share a skeleton-aware Global-Local Graph-guided Multi-Head Attention (GL-GMHA) module for joint-level local reasoning and global coordination. Experiments on Truebones Zoo and Objaverse show that our method reduces rotation error from ~17 degrees to ~10 degrees, and to 6.54 degrees on unseen skeletons, while achieving ~20x faster inference than mesh-based pipelines. Project page: https://animotionlab.github.io/MoCapAnythingV2/

In this paper, a novel Diffusion-based 3D Pose estimation (D3DP) method with Joint-wise reProjection-based Multi-hypothesis Aggregation (JPMA) is proposed for probabilistic 3D human pose estimation. On the one hand, D3DP generates multiple possible 3D pose hypotheses for a single 2D observation. It gradually diffuses the ground truth 3D poses to a random distribution, and learns a denoiser conditioned on 2D keypoints to recover the uncontaminated 3D poses. The proposed D3DP is compatible with existing 3D pose estimators and supports users to balance efficiency and accuracy during inference through two customizable parameters. On the other hand, JPMA is proposed to assemble multiple hypotheses generated by D3DP into a single 3D pose for practical use. It reprojects 3D pose hypotheses to the 2D camera plane, selects the best hypothesis joint-by-joint based on the reprojection errors, and combines the selected joints into the final pose. The proposed JPMA conducts aggregation at the joint level and makes use of the 2D prior information, both of which have been overlooked by previous approaches. Extensive experiments on Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art deterministic and probabilistic approaches by 1.5% and 8.9%, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/paTRICK-swk/D3DP.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

We propose a direct, regression-based approach to 2D human pose estimation from single images. We formulate the problem as a sequence prediction task, which we solve using a Transformer network. This network directly learns a regression mapping from images to the keypoint coordinates, without resorting to intermediate representations such as heatmaps. This approach avoids much of the complexity associated with heatmap-based approaches. To overcome the feature misalignment issues of previous regression-based methods, we propose an attention mechanism that adaptively attends to the features that are most relevant to the target keypoints, considerably improving the accuracy. Importantly, our framework is end-to-end differentiable, and naturally learns to exploit the dependencies between keypoints. Experiments on MS-COCO and MPII, two predominant pose-estimation datasets, demonstrate that our method significantly improves upon the state-of-the-art in regression-based pose estimation. More notably, ours is the first regression-based approach to perform favorably compared to the best heatmap-based pose estimation methods.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Few-shot object detection aims to detect novel object categories from only a few labeled examples, avoiding costly large-scale annotation. Recent prototype-based similarity learning approaches enable training-free adaptation by matching query features with class prototypes. However, they suffer from two fundamental limitations: (i) class confusion arising from inter-class similarity margin collapse, and (ii) insufficient visual cues for precise localization, as similarity scores capture only class-level semantic affinity while providing limited spatial information. To address these issues, we introduce two complementary components. Text-Anchored Semantic Mask (TSMa) leverages class-level text features as semantic anchors to identify semantically aligned channels through channel-wise interaction between visual and text features. By suppressing style-induced spurious responses and emphasizing class-intrinsic signals, TSMa enlarges inter-class similarity margins and mitigates class confusion. We further propose Stage-Aligned Hierarchical Autoregressive Regression (SHARe), which reformulates localization as a hierarchical autoregressive process that progressively refines bounding boxes across multiple stages. SHARe leverages the layer-wise characteristics of ViT representations by aligning feature abstraction levels with regression stages: deeper layers guide early coarse localization, while shallower layers rich in edge and texture cues refine spatial details in later stages. Experiments on COCO demonstrate a new state of the art, outperforming the previous best by +10.1 nAP, with extensive analysis validating each component. The code is available at https://github.com/VisualScienceLab-KHU/ReSet.

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) provide a simpleframework for learning world models by predicting future latent representations.However, JEPA training is subject to a bias-variance tradeoff.Without sufficient structural constraints, excessive representationalvariance causes the model to collapse to trivial solutions.The recent LeWorldModel (LeWM) shows that this issue can be alleviated bysimply constraining latent embeddings with an isotropic Gaussian prior.However, latent representations inherently lie on low-dimensional manifoldswithin a high-dimensional ambient space, and enforcing an isotropic Gaussianprior directly in this ambient space introduces an overly strong bias.In this work, we propose ame, which seeks a favorable operatingpoint on the bias-variance frontier by applying Gaussian constraints inmultiple random subspaces rather than in the originalembedding space.This design relaxes the global constraint while preserving itsanti-collapse effect, leading to a better balance between trainingstability and representation flexibility.Extensive experiments across fourcontinuous-control environments demonstrate that consistentlyoutperforms LeWM with very clear margins.Our method is simple yet effective, and serves as a strong baseline for future JEPA-based world model research.fdefinedeeemodeThe code is available at https://github.com/intcomp/Sub-JEPA.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

By leveraging temporal dependency in video sequences, multi-frame human pose estimation algorithms have demonstrated remarkable results in complicated situations, such as occlusion, motion blur, and video defocus. These algorithms are predominantly based on heatmaps, resulting in high computation and storage requirements per frame, which limits their flexibility and real-time application in video scenarios, particularly on edge devices. In this paper, we develop an efficient and effective video-based human pose regression method, which bypasses intermediate representations such as heatmaps and instead directly maps the input to the output joint coordinates. Despite the inherent spatial correlation among adjacent joints of the human pose, the temporal trajectory of each individual joint exhibits relative independence. In light of this, we propose a novel Decoupled Space-Time Aggregation network (DSTA) to separately capture the spatial contexts between adjacent joints and the temporal cues of each individual joint, thereby avoiding the conflation of spatiotemporal dimensions. Concretely, DSTA learns a dedicated feature token for each joint to facilitate the modeling of their spatiotemporal dependencies. With the proposed joint-wise local-awareness attention mechanism, our method is capable of efficiently and flexibly utilizing the spatial dependency of adjacent joints and the temporal dependency of each joint itself. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method. Compared to previous regression-based single-frame human pose estimation methods, DSTA significantly enhances performance, achieving an 8.9 mAP improvement on PoseTrack2017. Furthermore, our approach either surpasses or is on par with the state-of-the-art heatmap-based multi-frame human pose estimation methods. Project page: https://github.com/zgspose/DSTA.

Passive radio frequency (PRF)-based indoor positioning systems (IPS) have attracted researchers' attention due to their low price, easy and customizable configuration, and non-invasive design. This paper proposes a PRF-based three-dimensional (3D) indoor positioning system (PIPS), which is able to use signals of opportunity (SoOP) for positioning and also capture a scenario signature. PIPS passively monitors SoOPs containing scenario signatures through a single receiver. Moreover, PIPS leverages the Dynamic Data Driven Applications System (DDDAS) framework to devise and customize the sampling frequency, enabling the system to use the most impacted frequency band as the rated frequency band. Various regression methods within three ensemble learning strategies are used to train and predict the receiver position. The PRF spectrum of 60 positions is collected in the experimental scenario, and three criteria are applied to evaluate the performance of PIPS. Experimental results show that the proposed PIPS possesses the advantages of high accuracy, configurability, and robustness.

While generative models have excelled at creating static 3D content, the pursuit of systems that understand how objects move and respond to interactions remains a fundamental challenge. Current methods for articulated motion lie at a crossroads: they are either physically consistent but too slow for real-time use, or generative but violate basic kinematic constraints. We present DragMesh, a robust framework for real-time interactive 3D articulation built around a lightweight motion generation core. Our core contribution is a novel decoupled kinematic reasoning and motion generation framework. First, we infer the latent joint parameters by decoupling semantic intent reasoning (which determines the joint type) from geometric regression (which determines the axis and origin using our Kinematics Prediction Network (KPP-Net)). Second, to leverage the compact, continuous, and singularity-free properties of dual quaternions for representing rigid body motion, we develop a novel Dual Quaternion VAE (DQ-VAE). This DQ-VAE receives these predicted priors, along with the original user drag, to generate a complete, plausible motion trajectory. To ensure strict adherence to kinematics, we inject the joint priors at every layer of the DQ-VAE's non-autoregressive Transformer decoder using FiLM (Feature-wise Linear Modulation) conditioning. This persistent, multi-scale guidance is complemented by a numerically-stable cross-product loss to guarantee axis alignment. This decoupled design allows DragMesh to achieve real-time performance and enables plausible, generative articulation on novel objects without retraining, offering a practical step toward generative 3D intelligence. Code: https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/DragMesh. Website: https://aigeeksgroup.github.io/DragMesh.

Latent variable (LV) models are widely used in psychological research to investigate relationships among unobservable constructs. When one-stage estimation of the overall LV model is challenging, two-stage factor score regression (FSR) serves as a convenient alternative: the measurement model is fitted to obtain factor scores in the first stage, which are then used to fit the structural model in the subsequent stage. However, naive application of FSR is known to yield biased estimates of structural parameters. In this paper, we develop a generic bias-correction framework for two-stage estimation of parametric statistical models and tailor it specifically to FSR. Unlike existing bias-corrected FSR solutions, the proposed method applies to a broader class of LV models and does not require computing specific types of factor scores. We establish the root-n consistency of the proposed bias-corrected two-stage estimator under mild regularity conditions. To ensure broad applicability and minimize reliance on complex analytical derivations, we introduce a stochastic approximation algorithm for point estimation and a Monte Carlo-based procedure for variance estimation. In a sequence of Monte Carlo experiments, we demonstrate that the bias-corrected FSR estimator performs comparably to the ``gold standard'' one-stage maximum likelihood estimator. These results suggest that our approach offers a straightforward yet effective alternative for estimating LV models.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Human motion capture from monocular videos has made significant progress in recent years. However, modern approaches often produce temporal artifacts, e.g. in form of jittery motion and struggle to achieve smooth and physically plausible motions. Explicitly integrating physics, in form of internal forces and exterior torques, helps alleviating these artifacts. Current state-of-the-art approaches make use of an automatic PD controller to predict torques and reaction forces in order to re-simulate the input kinematics, i.e. the joint angles of a predefined skeleton. However, due to imperfect physical models, these methods often require simplifying assumptions and extensive preprocessing of the input kinematics to achieve good performance. To this end, we propose a novel method to selectively incorporate the physics models with the kinematics observations in an online setting, inspired by a neural Kalman-filtering approach. We develop a control loop as a meta-PD controller to predict internal joint torques and external reaction forces, followed by a physics-based motion simulation. A recurrent neural network is introduced to realize a Kalman filter that attentively balances the kinematics input and simulated motion, resulting in an optimal-state dynamics prediction. We show that this filtering step is crucial to provide an online supervision that helps balancing the shortcoming of the respective input motions, thus being important for not only capturing accurate global motion trajectories but also producing physically plausible human poses. The proposed approach excels in the physics-based human pose estimation task and demonstrates the physical plausibility of the predictive dynamics, compared to state of the art. The code is available on https://github.com/cuongle1206/OSDCap

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Position bias has proven to be a prevalent issue of modern language models (LMs), where the models prioritize content based on its position within the given context. This bias often leads to unexpected model failures and hurts performance, robustness, and reliability across various applications. Our mechanistic analysis attributes the position bias to two components employed in nearly all state-of-the-art LMs: causal attention and relative positional encodings. Specifically, we find that causal attention generally causes models to favor distant content, while relative positional encodings like RoPE prefer nearby ones based on the analysis of retrieval-augmented question answering (QA). Further, our empirical study on object detection reveals that position bias is also present in vision-language models (VLMs). Based on the above analyses, we propose to ELIMINATE position bias caused by different input segment orders (e.g., options in LM-as-a-judge, retrieved documents in QA) in a TRAINING-FREE ZERO-SHOT manner. Our method changes the causal attention to bidirectional attention between segments and utilizes model attention values to decide the relative orders of segments instead of using the order provided in input prompts, therefore enabling Position-INvariant inferencE (PINE) at the segment level. By eliminating position bias, models achieve better performance and reliability in downstream tasks where position bias widely exists, such as LM-as-a-judge and retrieval-augmented QA. Notably, PINE is especially useful when adapting LMs for evaluating reasoning pairs: it consistently provides 8 to 10 percentage points performance gains in most cases, and makes Llama-3-70B-Instruct perform even better than GPT-4-0125-preview on the RewardBench reasoning subset.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

This paper introduces a novel human pose estimation approach using sparse inertial sensors, addressing the shortcomings of previous methods reliant on synthetic data. It leverages a diverse array of real inertial motion capture data from different skeleton formats to improve motion diversity and model generalization. This method features two innovative components: a pseudo-velocity regression model for dynamic motion capture with inertial sensors, and a part-based model dividing the body and sensor data into three regions, each focusing on their unique characteristics. The approach demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art models across five public datasets, notably reducing pose error by 19\% on the DIP-IMU dataset, thus representing a significant improvement in inertial sensor-based human pose estimation. Our codes are available at {https://github.com/dx118/dynaip}.

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference latency, and difficulties of integration with large language models (LLMs) have necessitated exploring alternatives to DMs. This paper introduces ControlVAR, a novel framework that explores pixel-level controls in visual autoregressive (VAR) modeling for flexible and efficient conditional generation. In contrast to traditional conditional models that learn the conditional distribution, ControlVAR jointly models the distribution of image and pixel-level conditions during training and imposes conditional controls during testing. To enhance the joint modeling, we adopt the next-scale AR prediction paradigm and unify control and image representations. A teacher-forcing guidance strategy is proposed to further facilitate controllable generation with joint modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior efficacy and flexibility of ControlVAR across various conditional generation tasks against popular conditional DMs, \eg, ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ControlVAR.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

As Learning-to-Rank (LTR) approaches primarily seek to improve ranking quality, their output scores are not scale-calibrated by design. This fundamentally limits LTR usage in score-sensitive applications. Though a simple multi-objective approach that combines a regression and a ranking objective can effectively learn scale-calibrated scores, we argue that the two objectives are not necessarily compatible, which makes the trade-off less ideal for either of them. In this paper, we propose a practical regression compatible ranking (RCR) approach that achieves a better trade-off, where the two ranking and regression components are proved to be mutually aligned. Although the same idea applies to ranking with both binary and graded relevance, we mainly focus on binary labels in this paper. We evaluate the proposed approach on several public LTR benchmarks and show that it consistently achieves either best or competitive result in terms of both regression and ranking metrics, and significantly improves the Pareto frontiers in the context of multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, we evaluated the proposed approach on YouTube Search and found that it not only improved the ranking quality of the production pCTR model, but also brought gains to the click prediction accuracy. The proposed approach has been successfully deployed in the YouTube production system.

We propose a method for human pose estimation based on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). The pose estimation is formulated as a DNN-based regression problem towards body joints. We present a cascade of such DNN regressors which results in high precision pose estimates. The approach has the advantage of reasoning about pose in a holistic fashion and has a simple but yet powerful formulation which capitalizes on recent advances in Deep Learning. We present a detailed empirical analysis with state-of-art or better performance on four academic benchmarks of diverse real-world images.

Handwritten Mathematical Expression Recognition (HMER) has wide applications in human-machine interaction scenarios, such as digitized education and automated offices. Recently, sequence-based models with encoder-decoder architectures have been commonly adopted to address this task by directly predicting LaTeX sequences of expression images. However, these methods only implicitly learn the syntax rules provided by LaTeX, which may fail to describe the position and hierarchical relationship between symbols due to complex structural relations and diverse handwriting styles. To overcome this challenge, we propose a position forest transformer (PosFormer) for HMER, which jointly optimizes two tasks: expression recognition and position recognition, to explicitly enable position-aware symbol feature representation learning. Specifically, we first design a position forest that models the mathematical expression as a forest structure and parses the relative position relationships between symbols. Without requiring extra annotations, each symbol is assigned a position identifier in the forest to denote its relative spatial position. Second, we propose an implicit attention correction module to accurately capture attention for HMER in the sequence-based decoder architecture. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of PosFormer, which consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods 2.03%/1.22%/2.00%, 1.83%, and 4.62% gains on the single-line CROHME 2014/2016/2019, multi-line M2E, and complex MNE datasets, respectively, with no additional latency or computational cost. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepVisionLab/PosFormer.

Current works on multi-person 3D pose estimation mainly focus on the estimation of the 3D joint locations relative to the root joint and ignore the absolute locations of each pose. In this paper, we propose the Human Depth Estimation Network (HDNet), an end-to-end framework for absolute root joint localization in the camera coordinate space. Our HDNet first estimates the 2D human pose with heatmaps of the joints. These estimated heatmaps serve as attention masks for pooling features from image regions corresponding to the target person. A skeleton-based Graph Neural Network (GNN) is utilized to propagate features among joints. We formulate the target depth regression as a bin index estimation problem, which can be transformed with a soft-argmax operation from the classification output of our HDNet. We evaluate our HDNet on the root joint localization and root-relative 3D pose estimation tasks with two benchmark datasets, i.e., Human3.6M and MuPoTS-3D. The experimental results show that we outperform the previous state-of-the-art consistently under multiple evaluation metrics. Our source code is available at: https://github.com/jiahaoLjh/HumanDepth.

We present JointDiT, a diffusion transformer that models the joint distribution of RGB and depth. By leveraging the architectural benefit and outstanding image prior of the state-of-the-art diffusion transformer, JointDiT not only generates high-fidelity images but also produces geometrically plausible and accurate depth maps. This solid joint distribution modeling is achieved through two simple yet effective techniques that we propose, namely, adaptive scheduling weights, which depend on the noise levels of each modality, and the unbalanced timestep sampling strategy. With these techniques, we train our model across all noise levels for each modality, enabling JointDiT to naturally handle various combinatorial generation tasks, including joint generation, depth estimation, and depth-conditioned image generation by simply controlling the timesteps of each branch. JointDiT demonstrates outstanding joint generation performance. Furthermore, it achieves comparable results in depth estimation and depth-conditioned image generation, suggesting that joint distribution modeling can serve as a viable alternative to conditional generation. The project page is available at https://byungki-k.github.io/JointDiT/.

Cross-view geo-localization estimates the geographic location of a ground image by matching it against an aerial image database. Existing methods tackle this through either large-scale retrieval or precise pose estimation, but not both: retrieval-based methods enable wide-area search at the cost of localization accuracy, while pose estimation methods achieve high precision within only a narrow search space. Naively cascading these pipelines introduces error propagation and inconsistent feature representations. We formulate cross-view geo-localization as a unified problem requiring simultaneous city-scale retrieval and precise 3-DoF pose estimation. We propose CIPER (Cross-view Image-retrieval and Pose-estimation transformER), a single architecture that jointly performs both tasks through mutually beneficial feature learning. CIPER uses a shared transformer encoder with task-specific tokens to disentangle global retrieval features from spatial localization cues. To bridge the large domain gap between ground and aerial views, we introduce a two-way transformer pose decoder that uses ground features as spatial queries for bidirectional cross-attention. A set prediction strategy further enables stable 3-DoF regression under a unified multi-task objective. Experiments on VIGOR, KITTI, and Ford Multi-AV demonstrate competitive performance, especially under limited field-of-view and arbitrary orientation conditions. Code is available at https://github.com/yurimjeon1892/CIPER.

This paper considers a joint scattering environment sensing and data recovery problem in an uplink integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) system. To facilitate joint scatterers localization and multi-user (MU) channel estimation, we introduce a three-dimensional (3D) location-domain sparse channel model to capture the joint sparsity of the MU channel (i.e., different user channels share partially overlapped scatterers). Then the joint problem is formulated as a bilinear structured sparse recovery problem with a dynamic position grid and imperfect parameters (such as time offset and user position errors). We propose an expectation maximization based turbo bilinear subspace variational Bayesian inference (EM-Turbo-BiSVBI) algorithm to solve the problem effectively, where the E-step performs Bayesian estimation of the the location-domain sparse MU channel by exploiting the joint sparsity, and the M-step refines the dynamic position grid and learns the imperfect factors via gradient update. Two methods are introduced to greatly reduce the complexity with almost no sacrifice on the performance and convergence speed: 1) a subspace constrained bilinear variational Bayesian inference (VBI) method is proposed to avoid any high-dimensional matrix inverse; 2) the multiple signal classification (MUSIC) and subspace constrained VBI methods are combined to obtain a coarse estimation result to reduce the search range. Simulations verify the advantages of the proposed scheme over baseline schemes.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

Decoding-based regression, which reformulates regression as a sequence generation task, has emerged as a promising paradigm of applying large language models for numerical prediction. However, its progress is hindered by the misalignment between discrete token-level objectives (e.g., cross-entropy) and continuous numerical values. Existing approaches relying on token-level constraints often fail to capture the global magnitude of the target value, limiting their precision and generalization. In this paper, we propose to unlock the potential of decoding-based regression via Reinforcement Learning (RL). We formulate the generation process as a Markov Decision Process, utilizing sequence-level rewards to enforce global numerical coherence. Extensive experiments on tabular regression and code metric regression demonstrate that our method (specifically with ReMax and GRPO) consistently outperforms both state-of-the-art token-level baselines and traditional regression heads, showing the superiority of introducing sequence-level signals. Our analysis further reveals that RL significantly enhances sampling efficiency and predictive precision, establishing decoding-based regression as a robust and accurate paradigm for general-purpose numerical prediction.

Monocular 3D human pose estimation (HPE) methods estimate the 3D positions of joints from individual images. Existing 3D HPE approaches often use the cropped image alone as input for their models. However, the relative depths of joints cannot be accurately estimated from cropped images without the corresponding camera intrinsics, which determine the perspective relationship between 3D objects and the cropped images. In this work, we introduce Perspective Encoding (PE) to encode the camera intrinsics of the cropped images. Moreover, since the human subject can appear anywhere within the original image, the perspective relationship between the 3D scene and the cropped image differs significantly, which complicates model fitting. Additionally, the further the human subject deviates from the image center, the greater the perspective distortions in the cropped image. To address these issues, we propose Perspective Rotation (PR), a transformation applied to the original image that centers the human subject, thereby reducing perspective distortions and alleviating the difficulty of model fitting. By incorporating PE and PR, we propose a novel 3D HPE framework, PersPose. Experimental results demonstrate that PersPose achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on the 3DPW, MPI-INF-3DHP, and Human3.6M datasets. For example, on the in-the-wild dataset 3DPW, PersPose achieves an MPJPE of 60.1 mm, 7.54% lower than the previous SOTA approach. Code is available at: https://github.com/KenAdamsJoseph/PersPose.

While significant progress has been made in single-view 3D human pose estimation, multi-view 3D human pose estimation remains challenging, particularly in terms of generalizing to new camera configurations. Existing attention-based transformers often struggle to accurately model the spatial arrangement of keypoints, especially in occluded scenarios. Additionally, they tend to overfit specific camera arrangements and visual scenes from training data, resulting in substantial performance drops in new settings. In this study, we introduce a novel Multi-View State Space Modeling framework, named MV-SSM, for robustly estimating 3D human keypoints. We explicitly model the joint spatial sequence at two distinct levels: the feature level from multi-view images and the person keypoint level. We propose a Projective State Space (PSS) block to learn a generalized representation of joint spatial arrangements using state space modeling. Moreover, we modify Mamba's traditional scanning into an effective Grid Token-guided Bidirectional Scanning (GTBS), which is integral to the PSS block. Multiple experiments demonstrate that MV-SSM achieves strong generalization, outperforming state-of-the-art methods: +10.8 on AP25 (+24%) on the challenging three-camera setting in CMU Panoptic, +7.0 on AP25 (+13%) on varying camera arrangements, and +15.3 PCP (+38%) on Campus A1 in cross-dataset evaluations. Project Website: https://aviralchharia.github.io/MV-SSM

Poor sitting posture can lead to various work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). Office employees spend approximately 81.8% of their working time seated, and sedentary behavior can result in chronic diseases such as cervical spondylosis and cardiovascular diseases. To address these health concerns, we present SitPose, a sitting posture and sedentary detection system utilizing the latest Kinect depth camera. The system tracks 3D coordinates of bone joint points in real-time and calculates the angle values of related joints. We established a dataset containing six different sitting postures and one standing posture, totaling 33,409 data points, by recruiting 36 participants. We applied several state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to the dataset and compared their performance in recognizing the sitting poses. Our results show that the ensemble learning model based on the soft voting mechanism achieves the highest F1 score of 98.1%. Finally, we deployed the SitPose system based on this ensemble model to encourage better sitting posture and to reduce sedentary habits.

The advent of autonomous agents is transforming interactions with Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) by employing natural language as a powerful intermediary. Despite the predominance of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) methods in current GUI agents for achieving spatial localization, these methods face substantial challenges due to their limited capacity to accurately perceive positional data. Existing strategies, such as reinforcement learning, often fail to assess positional accuracy effectively, thereby restricting their utility. In response, we introduce Location Preference Optimization (LPO), a novel approach that leverages locational data to optimize interaction preferences. LPO uses information entropy to predict interaction positions by focusing on zones rich in information. Besides, it further introduces a dynamic location reward function based on physical distance, reflecting the varying importance of interaction positions. Supported by Group Relative Preference Optimization (GRPO), LPO facilitates an extensive exploration of GUI environments and significantly enhances interaction precision. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate LPO's superior performance, achieving SOTA results across both offline benchmarks and real-world online evaluations. Our code will be made publicly available soon, at https://github.com/AIDC-AI/LPO.

This paper introduces PoseLess, a novel framework for robot hand control that eliminates the need for explicit pose estimation by directly mapping 2D images to joint angles using projected representations. Our approach leverages synthetic training data generated through randomized joint configurations, enabling zero-shot generalization to real-world scenarios and cross-morphology transfer from robotic to human hands. By projecting visual inputs and employing a transformer-based decoder, PoseLess achieves robust, low-latency control while addressing challenges such as depth ambiguity and data scarcity. Experimental results demonstrate competitive performance in joint angle prediction accuracy without relying on any human-labelled dataset.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

Radiotherapy often involves a prolonged treatment period. During this time, patients may experience organ motion due to breathing and other physiological factors. Predicting and modeling this motion before treatment is crucial for ensuring precise radiation delivery. However, existing pre-treatment organ motion prediction methods primarily rely on deformation analysis using principal component analysis (PCA), which is highly dependent on registration quality and struggles to capture periodic temporal dynamics for motion modeling.In this paper, we observe that organ motion prediction closely resembles an autoregressive process, a technique widely used in natural language processing (NLP). Autoregressive models predict the next token based on previous inputs, naturally aligning with our objective of predicting future organ motion phases. Building on this insight, we reformulate organ motion prediction as an autoregressive process to better capture patient-specific motion patterns. Specifically, we acquire 4D CT scans for each patient before treatment, with each sequence comprising multiple 3D CT phases. These phases are fed into the autoregressive model to predict future phases based on prior phase motion patterns. We evaluate our method on a real-world test set of 4D CT scans from 50 patients who underwent radiotherapy at our institution and a public dataset containing 4D CT scans from 20 patients (some with multiple scans), totaling over 1,300 3D CT phases. The performance in predicting the motion of the lung and heart surpasses existing benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing motion dynamics from CT images. These results highlight the potential of our method to improve pre-treatment planning in radiotherapy, enabling more precise and adaptive radiation delivery.

Model-based human pose estimation is currently approached through two different paradigms. Optimization-based methods fit a parametric body model to 2D observations in an iterative manner, leading to accurate image-model alignments, but are often slow and sensitive to the initialization. In contrast, regression-based methods, that use a deep network to directly estimate the model parameters from pixels, tend to provide reasonable, but not pixel accurate, results while requiring huge amounts of supervision. In this work, instead of investigating which approach is better, our key insight is that the two paradigms can form a strong collaboration. A reasonable, directly regressed estimate from the network can initialize the iterative optimization making the fitting faster and more accurate. Similarly, a pixel accurate fit from iterative optimization can act as strong supervision for the network. This is the core of our proposed approach SPIN (SMPL oPtimization IN the loop). The deep network initializes an iterative optimization routine that fits the body model to 2D joints within the training loop, and the fitted estimate is subsequently used to supervise the network. Our approach is self-improving by nature, since better network estimates can lead the optimization to better solutions, while more accurate optimization fits provide better supervision for the network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in different settings, where 3D ground truth is scarce, or not available, and we consistently outperform the state-of-the-art model-based pose estimation approaches by significant margins. The project website with videos, results, and code can be found at https://seas.upenn.edu/~nkolot/projects/spin.

Multi-modal trajectory forecasting methods commonly evaluate using single-agent metrics (marginal metrics), such as minimum Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), which fail to capture joint performance of multiple interacting agents. Only focusing on marginal metrics can lead to unnatural predictions, such as colliding trajectories or diverging trajectories for people who are clearly walking together as a group. Consequently, methods optimized for marginal metrics lead to overly-optimistic estimations of performance, which is detrimental to progress in trajectory forecasting research. In response to the limitations of marginal metrics, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) trajectory forecasting methods with respect to multi-agent metrics (joint metrics): JADE, JFDE, and collision rate. We demonstrate the importance of joint metrics as opposed to marginal metrics with quantitative evidence and qualitative examples drawn from the ETH / UCY and Stanford Drone datasets. We introduce a new loss function incorporating joint metrics that, when applied to a SOTA trajectory forecasting method, achieves a 7% improvement in JADE / JFDE on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA. Our results also indicate that optimizing for joint metrics naturally leads to an improvement in interaction modeling, as evidenced by a 16% decrease in mean collision rate on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

Although data-driven methods have achieved success in 3D human pose estimation, they often suffer from domain gaps and exhibit limited generalization. In contrast, optimization-based methods excel in fine-tuning for specific cases but are generally inferior to data-driven methods in overall performance. We observe that previous optimization-based methods commonly rely on a projection constraint, which only ensures alignment in 2D space, potentially leading to the overfitting problem. To address this, we propose an Uncertainty-Aware testing-time Optimization (UAO) framework, which keeps the prior information of the pre-trained model and alleviates the overfitting problem using the uncertainty of joints. Specifically, during the training phase, we design an effective 2D-to-3D network for estimating the corresponding 3D pose while quantifying the uncertainty of each 3D joint. For optimization during testing, the proposed optimization framework freezes the pre-trained model and optimizes only a latent state. Projection loss is then employed to ensure the generated poses are well aligned in 2D space for high-quality optimization. Furthermore, we utilize the uncertainty of each joint to determine how much each joint is allowed for optimization. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework are validated through extensive experiments on challenging datasets: Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP, and 3DPW. Notably, our approach outperforms the previous best result by a large margin of 5.5\% on Human3.6M. Code is available at https://github.com/xiu-cs/UAO-Pose3D{https://github.com/xiu-cs/UAO-Pose3D}.

Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) have emerged as a powerful framework for learning general-purpose representations. However, these models often lack interpretability and suffer from inefficiencies due to dense embedding representations. We propose SparseJEPA, an extension that integrates sparse representation learning into the JEPA framework to enhance the quality of learned representations. SparseJEPA employs a penalty method that encourages latent space variables to be shared among data features with strong semantic relationships, while maintaining predictive performance. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SparseJEPA by training on the CIFAR-100 dataset and pre-training a lightweight Vision Transformer. The improved embeddings are utilized in linear-probe transfer learning for both image classification and low-level tasks, showcasing the architecture's versatility across different transfer tasks. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical proof that demonstrates that the grouping mechanism enhances representation quality. This was done by displaying that grouping reduces Multiinformation among latent-variables, including proofing the Data Processing Inequality for Multiinformation. Our results indicate that incorporating sparsity not only refines the latent space but also facilitates the learning of more meaningful and interpretable representations. In further work, hope to further extend this method by finding new ways to leverage the grouping mechanism through object-centric representation learning.

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: each input is reconstructed only from previous inputs in a given ordering. Constrained this way, the autoencoder outputs can be interpreted as a set of conditional probabilities, and their product, the full joint probability. We can also train a single network that can decompose the joint probability in multiple different orderings. Our simple framework can be applied to multiple architectures, including deep ones. Vectorized implementations, such as on GPUs, are simple and fast. Experiments demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art tractable distribution estimators. At test time, the method is significantly faster and scales better than other autoregressive estimators.

Sexual dimorphism is a critical factor in many biological and medical research fields. In biomechanics and bioengineering, understanding sex differences is crucial for studying musculoskeletal conditions such as temporomandibular disorder (TMD). This paper focuses on the association between the craniofacial skeletal morphology and temporomandibular joint (TMJ) related masticatory muscle attachments to discern sex differences. Data were collected from 10 male and 11 female cadaver heads to investigate sex-specific relationships between the skull and muscles. We propose a conditional cross-covariance reduction (CCR) model, designed to examine the dynamic association between two sets of random variables conditioned on a third binary variable (e.g., sex), highlighting the most distinctive sex-related relationships between skull and muscle attachments in the human cadaver data. Under the CCR model, we employ a sparse singular value decomposition algorithm and introduce a sequential permutation for selecting sparsity (SPSS) method to select important variables and to determine the optimal number of selected variables.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Monocular 3D human pose estimation remains a challenging task due to inherent depth ambiguities and occlusions. Compared to traditional methods based on Transformers or Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), recent diffusion-based approaches have shown superior performance, leveraging their probabilistic nature and high-fidelity generation capabilities. However, these methods often fail to account for the spatial and temporal correlations across predicted frames, resulting in limited temporal consistency and inferior accuracy in predicted 3D pose sequences. To address these shortcomings, this paper proposes StarPose, an autoregressive diffusion framework that effectively incorporates historical 3D pose predictions and spatial-temporal physical guidance to significantly enhance both the accuracy and temporal coherence of pose predictions. Unlike existing approaches, StarPose models the 2D-to-3D pose mapping as an autoregressive diffusion process. By synergically integrating previously predicted 3D poses with 2D pose inputs via a Historical Pose Integration Module (HPIM), the framework generates rich and informative historical pose embeddings that guide subsequent denoising steps, ensuring temporally consistent predictions. In addition, a fully plug-and-play Spatial-Temporal Physical Guidance (STPG) mechanism is tailored to refine the denoising process in an iterative manner, which further enforces spatial anatomical plausibility and temporal motion dynamics, rendering robust and realistic pose estimates. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that StarPose outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving superior accuracy and temporal consistency in 3D human pose estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/wileychan/StarPose.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

The unsupervised task of Joint Alignment (JA) of images is beset by challenges such as high complexity, geometric distortions, and convergence to poor local or even global optima. Although Vision Transformers (ViT) have recently provided valuable features for JA, they fall short of fully addressing these issues. Consequently, researchers frequently depend on expensive models and numerous regularization terms, resulting in long training times and challenging hyperparameter tuning. We introduce the Spatial Joint Alignment Model (SpaceJAM), a novel approach that addresses the JA task with efficiency and simplicity. SpaceJAM leverages a compact architecture with only 16K trainable parameters and uniquely operates without the need for regularization or atlas maintenance. Evaluations on SPair-71K and CUB datasets demonstrate that SpaceJAM matches the alignment capabilities of existing methods while significantly reducing computational demands and achieving at least a 10x speedup. SpaceJAM sets a new standard for rapid and effective image alignment, making the process more accessible and efficient. Our code is available at: https://bgu-cs-vil.github.io/SpaceJAM/.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Accurate hand pose estimation is vital in robotics, advancing dexterous manipulation in human-computer interaction. Toward this goal, this paper presents ReJSHand (which stands for Refined Joint and Skeleton Features), a cutting-edge network formulated for real-time hand pose estimation and mesh reconstruction. The proposed framework is designed to accurately predict 3D hand gestures under real-time constraints, which is essential for systems that demand agile and responsive hand motion tracking. The network's design prioritizes computational efficiency without compromising accuracy, a prerequisite for instantaneous robotic interactions. Specifically, ReJSHand comprises a 2D keypoint generator, a 3D keypoint generator, an expansion block, and a feature interaction block for meticulously reconstructing 3D hand poses from 2D imagery. In addition, the multi-head self-attention mechanism and a coordinate attention layer enhance feature representation, streamlining the creation of hand mesh vertices through sophisticated feature mapping and linear transformation. Regarding performance, comprehensive evaluations on the FreiHand dataset demonstrate ReJSHand's computational prowess. It achieves a frame rate of 72 frames per second while maintaining a PA-MPJPE (Position-Accurate Mean Per Joint Position Error) of 6.3 mm and a PA-MPVPE (Position-Accurate Mean Per Vertex Position Error) of 6.4 mm. Moreover, our model reaches scores of 0.756 for F@05 and 0.984 for F@15, surpassing modern pipelines and solidifying its position at the forefront of robotic hand pose estimators. To facilitate future studies, we provide our source code at ~https://github.com/daishipeng/ReJSHand.

Protein language models are trained primarily with masked language modeling (MLM), which predicts amino-acid identities at masked positions. We ask whether latent-space prediction can complement these token-level objectives under matched wall-clock budget. Across pretrained and random-init protein sequence encoders at 35--150M parameters, we find that the best protein-JEPA design is not all-position latent prediction but a variant: predicting latent targets only at masked positions, and retaining the MLM cross-entropy. We call this recipe masked-position MLM+JEPA. On a 16-task downstream suite (15 frozen linear probes plus SCOPe-40 zero-shot fold retrieval), under matched wall-clock budgets, this recipe wins more tasks than it loses against MLM-only continuation: 10 wins / 3 losses / 3 ties (hereafter W/L/T) on pretrained ESM2-35M, 11/2/3 on ESM2-150M while results in pretraining from scratch are mixed (6/8/2). Gains are seen for multiple models on 11 of 16 tasks, including stability, etaβeta-lactamase fitness, variant effect, intrinsic disorder, remote homology, enzyme classification, and SCOPe-40 fold retrieval. Tasks with more losses than wins are Fluorescence (TAPE) and Peptide-HLA Binding. All-position MLM+JEPA matches MLM-only overall but does not reproduce the masked-position gains. JEPA-only (no MLM) collapses in nearly every experiment. We conclude that JEPA, when combined with MLM, is competitive and can outperform pure MLM in pretraining and continued training, even under matched wall-clock budgets.

Humanoid loco-manipulation is often simplified into a stop-and-go process: walking to an object, stopping to manipulate it, and then resuming locomotion. It also commonly relies on low degree-of-freedom (DoF) end effectors that behave like an open-close grasp primitive. We introduce CoorDex, a learning pipeline that converts high-dimensional body and dexterous hand control into coordinated latent residual control, enabling high-DoF dexterous loco-manipulation on the move. Starting from simulated whole-body and hand demonstrations, CoorDex trains privileged motion tracking teachers for the humanoid body and dexterous hand, distills them into proprioception-conditioned latent priors, and uses the frozen priors as the action space for downstream residual reinforcement learning. A coordinated latent residual policy composes these priors through shared task context and separate body-hand residual heads, preserving natural whole-body motion while improving finger-level contact reliability. CoorDex enables a Unitree G1 humanoid with a 20-DoF WUJI hand to execute dexterous manipulation while in motion, including non-stop bottle grasping and carrying, fridge door opening on the move, and cube pick-and-turn. Ablations on the walk-grasp-carry task show that joint-space PPO, joint-space hand control, and monolithic latent prediction all fail under the same reward budget, while the latent-prior interface and coordinated residual structure make high-dimensional contact-rich loco-manipulation trainable. Project Page: https://skevinci.github.io/coordex/

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Accurate dynamics models are critical for informed decision-making in robotic systems, particularly for agile aerial vehicles operating under uncertainty. Neural network dynamics models are attractive for capturing complex nonlinear effects, but existing predictive approaches struggle with long-horizon forecasting because their autoregressive rollout mechanism amplifies errors over time. Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) offer a compelling alternative by modeling dynamics in latent space, yet prior JEPA-style methods for robot navigation have been studied primarily for kinematic-level planning, with limited investigation in high-frequency control. In this work, we introduce the JEPA-style model for real-time quadrotor control. The proposed approach combines a latent dynamics model with a novel physics-inspired prober that maps frozen latents to interpretable state, enabling physically grounded long-horizon prediction. Additionally, we combine the learned model with a sampling-based optimal control solution to take advantage of its predictive capabilities for real-time control on embedded hardware. Finally, to reduce the dependence on expensive and unsafe real-world data collection, we develop a structured pipeline for automated dataset generation. Extensive open-loop and outdoor closed-loop experiments demonstrate accurate prediction, robust zero-shot sim-to-real transfer, and strong generalization across diverse operating conditions.

Video representation learning is an increasingly important topic in machine learning research. We present Video JEPA with Variance-Covariance Regularization (VJ-VCR): a joint-embedding predictive architecture for self-supervised video representation learning that employs variance and covariance regularization to avoid representation collapse. We show that hidden representations from our VJ-VCR contain abstract, high-level information about the input data. Specifically, they outperform representations obtained from a generative baseline on downstream tasks that require understanding of the underlying dynamics of moving objects in the videos. Additionally, we explore different ways to incorporate latent variables into the VJ-VCR framework that capture information about uncertainty in the future in non-deterministic settings.

Joint contact forces govern implant longevity, cartilage health, and rehabilitation outcomes, shaping who develops osteoarthritis, who recovers well from joint replacement, and who benefits from biomechanical interventions. Yet they remain measurable only invasively, in a few dozen patients with instrumented implants. I present a physics-free pipeline to predict instantaneous 3D hip and knee contact forces from an uncalibrated monocular video: no markers, force plates, electromyography, subject-specific imaging, or musculoskeletal model. Parametric body meshes are recovered per frame, encoded as kinematic features, and decoded into forces by a transformer whose pose stream is adaptively modulated at every layer by body shape, joint, side, activity text, and self-supervised video tokens (V-JEPA 2), unifying hip and knee in a single model. Under leave-one-subject-out cross-validation across 26 patients and 25 activity categories from the in vivo OrthoLoad database, the pipeline matches the accuracy of subject-specific musculoskeletal simulations (0.32 pm 0.08 BW RMSE for hip; 0.23 pm 0.03 BW for knee) and resolves peak force changes smaller than those reported for gait retraining and osteoarthritis progression. Applied zero-shot to an independent instrumented cohort, it rivals or outperforms prior published methods. Even without curated activity labels, video features alone preserve accuracy and enable end-to-end inference on raw footage. Driven by the predictor, a generative motion prior produces biomechanically plausible variants with reduced peak loading, rediscovering strategies from the predictive simulation literature. This pipeline establishes uncalibrated monocular video as a viable modality for estimating joint loading, opening a path toward retrospective analysis of archived clinical recordings, primary-care screening, and at-home rehabilitation tracking.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

While diffusion distillation has enabled one-step generation through methods like Variational Score Distillation, adapting distilled models to emerging new controls -- such as novel structural constraints or latest user preferences -- remains challenging. Conventional approaches typically requires modifying the base diffusion model and redistilling it -- a process that is both computationally intensive and time-consuming. To address these challenges, we introduce Joint Distribution Matching (JDM), a novel approach that minimizes the reverse KL divergence between image-condition joint distributions. By deriving a tractable upper bound, JDM decouples fidelity learning from condition learning. This asymmetric distillation scheme enables our one-step student to handle controls unknown to the teacher model and facilitates improved classifier-free guidance (CFG) usage and seamless integration of human feedback learning (HFL). Experimental results demonstrate that JDM surpasses baseline methods such as multi-step ControlNet by mere one-step in most cases, while achieving state-of-the-art performance in one-step text-to-image synthesis through improved usage of CFG or HFL integration.

2D-to-3D human pose lifting is fundamental for 3D human pose estimation (HPE), for which graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have proven inherently suitable for modeling the human skeletal topology. However, the current GCN-based 3D HPE methods update the node features by aggregating their neighbors' information without considering the interaction of joints in different joint synergies. Although some studies have proposed importing limb information to learn the movement patterns, the latent synergies among joints, such as maintaining balance are seldom investigated. We propose the Hop-wise GraphFormer with Intragroup Joint Refinement (HopFIR) architecture to tackle the 3D HPE problem. HopFIR mainly consists of a novel hop-wise GraphFormer (HGF) module and an intragroup joint refinement (IJR) module. The HGF module groups the joints by k-hop neighbors and applies a hopwise transformer-like attention mechanism to these groups to discover latent joint synergies. The IJR module leverages the prior limb information for peripheral joint refinement. Extensive experimental results show that HopFIR outperforms the SOTA methods by a large margin, with a mean per-joint position error (MPJPE) on the Human3.6M dataset of 32.67 mm. We also demonstrate that the state-of-the-art GCN-based methods can benefit from the proposed hop-wise attention mechanism with a significant improvement in performance: SemGCN and MGCN are improved by 8.9% and 4.5%, respectively.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Great progress has been made in estimating 3D human pose and shape from images and video by training neural networks to directly regress the parameters of parametric human models like SMPL. However, existing body models have simplified kinematic structures that do not correspond to the true joint locations and articulations in the human skeletal system, limiting their potential use in biomechanics. On the other hand, methods for estimating biomechanically accurate skeletal motion typically rely on complex motion capture systems and expensive optimization methods. What is needed is a parametric 3D human model with a biomechanically accurate skeletal structure that can be easily posed. To that end, we develop SKEL, which re-rigs the SMPL body model with a biomechanics skeleton. To enable this, we need training data of skeletons inside SMPL meshes in diverse poses. We build such a dataset by optimizing biomechanically accurate skeletons inside SMPL meshes from AMASS sequences. We then learn a regressor from SMPL mesh vertices to the optimized joint locations and bone rotations. Finally, we re-parametrize the SMPL mesh with the new kinematic parameters. The resulting SKEL model is animatable like SMPL but with fewer, and biomechanically-realistic, degrees of freedom. We show that SKEL has more biomechanically accurate joint locations than SMPL, and the bones fit inside the body surface better than previous methods. By fitting SKEL to SMPL meshes we are able to "upgrade" existing human pose and shape datasets to include biomechanical parameters. SKEL provides a new tool to enable biomechanics in the wild, while also providing vision and graphics researchers with a better constrained and more realistic model of human articulation. The model, code, and data are available for research at https://skel.is.tue.mpg.de..

The detection of human body and its related parts (e.g., face, head or hands) have been intensively studied and greatly improved since the breakthrough of deep CNNs. However, most of these detectors are trained independently, making it a challenging task to associate detected body parts with people. This paper focuses on the problem of joint detection of human body and its corresponding parts. Specifically, we propose a novel extended object representation that integrates the center location offsets of body or its parts, and construct a dense single-stage anchor-based Body-Part Joint Detector (BPJDet). Body-part associations in BPJDet are embedded into the unified representation which contains both the semantic and geometric information. Therefore, BPJDet does not suffer from error-prone association post-matching, and has a better accuracy-speed trade-off. Furthermore, BPJDet can be seamlessly generalized to jointly detect any body part. To verify the effectiveness and superiority of our method, we conduct extensive experiments on the CityPersons, CrowdHuman and BodyHands datasets. The proposed BPJDet detector achieves state-of-the-art association performance on these three benchmarks while maintains high accuracy of detection. Code is in https://github.com/hnuzhy/BPJDet.

Reconstruction and joint embedding have emerged as two leading paradigms in Self Supervised Learning (SSL). Reconstruction methods focus on recovering the original sample from a different view in input space. On the other hand, joint embedding methods align the representations of different views in latent space. Both approaches offer compelling advantages, yet practitioners lack clear guidelines for choosing between them. In this work, we unveil the core mechanisms that distinguish each paradigm. By leveraging closed form solutions for both approaches, we precisely characterize how the view generation process, e.g. data augmentation, impacts the learned representations. We then demonstrate that, unlike supervised learning, both SSL paradigms require a minimal alignment between augmentations and irrelevant features to achieve asymptotic optimality with increasing sample size. Our findings indicate that in scenarios where these irrelevant features have a large magnitude, joint embedding methods are preferable because they impose a strictly weaker alignment condition compared to reconstruction based methods. These results not only clarify the trade offs between the two paradigms but also substantiate the empirical success of joint embedding approaches on real world challenging datasets.

Joint-Embedding Self Supervised Learning (JE-SSL) has seen a rapid development, with the emergence of many method variations but only few principled guidelines that would help practitioners to successfully deploy them. The main reason for that pitfall comes from JE-SSL's core principle of not employing any input reconstruction therefore lacking visual cues of unsuccessful training. Adding non informative loss values to that, it becomes difficult to deploy SSL on a new dataset for which no labels can help to judge the quality of the learned representation. In this study, we develop a simple unsupervised criterion that is indicative of the quality of the learned JE-SSL representations: their effective rank. Albeit simple and computationally friendly, this method -- coined RankMe -- allows one to assess the performance of JE-SSL representations, even on different downstream datasets, without requiring any labels. A further benefit of RankMe is that it does not have any training or hyper-parameters to tune. Through thorough empirical experiments involving hundreds of training episodes, we demonstrate how RankMe can be used for hyperparameter selection with nearly no reduction in final performance compared to the current selection method that involve a dataset's labels. We hope that RankMe will facilitate the deployment of JE-SSL towards domains that do not have the opportunity to rely on labels for representations' quality assessment.

Recent advances in dense 3D reconstruction have led to significant progress, yet achieving accurate unified geometric prediction remains a major challenge. Most existing methods are limited to predicting a single geometry quantity from input images. However, geometric quantities such as depth, surface normals, and point maps are inherently correlated, and estimating them in isolation often fails to ensure consistency, thereby limiting both accuracy and practical applicability. This motivates us to explore a unified framework that explicitly models the structural coupling among different geometric properties to enable joint regression. In this paper, we present Dens3R, a 3D foundation model designed for joint geometric dense prediction and adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. Dens3R adopts a two-stage training framework to progressively build a pointmap representation that is both generalizable and intrinsically invariant. Specifically, we design a lightweight shared encoder-decoder backbone and introduce position-interpolated rotary positional encoding to maintain expressive power while enhancing robustness to high-resolution inputs. By integrating image-pair matching features with intrinsic invariance modeling, Dens3R accurately regresses multiple geometric quantities such as surface normals and depth, achieving consistent geometry perception from single-view to multi-view inputs. Additionally, we propose a post-processing pipeline that supports geometrically consistent multi-view inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of Dens3R across various dense 3D prediction tasks and highlight its potential for broader applications.

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) have recently emerged as a novel and powerful technique for self-supervised representation learning. They aim to learn an energy-based model by predicting the latent representation of a target signal y from the latent representation of a context signal x. JEPAs bypass the need for negative and positive samples, traditionally required by contrastive learning while avoiding the overfitting issues associated with generative pretraining. In this paper, we show that graph-level representations can be effectively modeled using this paradigm by proposing a Graph Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (Graph-JEPA). In particular, we employ masked modeling and focus on predicting the latent representations of masked subgraphs starting from the latent representation of a context subgraph. To endow the representations with the implicit hierarchy that is often present in graph-level concepts, we devise an alternative prediction objective that consists of predicting the coordinates of the encoded subgraphs on the unit hyperbola in the 2D plane. Through multiple experimental evaluations, we show that Graph-JEPA can learn highly semantic and expressive representations, as shown by the downstream performance in graph classification, regression, and distinguishing non-isomorphic graphs. The code is available at https://github.com/geriskenderi/graph-jepa.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Self-supervised learning has seen great success recently in unsupervised representation learning, enabling breakthroughs in natural language and image processing. However, these methods often rely on autoregressive and masked modeling, which aim to reproduce masked information in the input, which can be vulnerable to the presence of noise or confounding variables. To address this problem, Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) has been introduced with the aim to perform self-supervised learning in the latent space. To leverage these advancements in the domain of time series, we introduce Time Series JEPA (TS-JEPA), an architecture specifically adapted for time series representation learning. We validate TS-JEPA on both classification and forecasting, showing that it can match or surpass current state-of-the-art baselines on different standard datasets. Notably, our approach demonstrates a strong performance balance across diverse tasks, indicating its potential as a robust foundation for learning general representations. Thus, this work lays the groundwork for developing future time series foundation models based on Joint Embedding.

World action models jointly predict future video and action during training, raising an open question about what role the future-prediction branch actually plays. A recent finding shows that this branch can be removed at inference with little to no loss on common manipulation benchmarks, suggesting that future information may act merely as a regularizer on the shared visual backbone. We propose instead that joint training induces an action-conditioned correction that privileged future observations impose on action denoising, and that current-only policies capture this correction only partially. Making the account precise, we formulate privileged foresight as a residual in the action-denoising direction -- the difference between what a model predicts given the true future and what it predicts given only the current frame -- and introduce Privileged Foresight Distillation (PFD), which transfers this residual from a training-time teacher into a small adapter on a current-only student. The teacher and student share the same backbone and differ only in the attention mask over video tokens; future video is never generated at inference. Controlled experiments verify that this gain reflects a genuine future-conditioned correction rather than a side effect of capacity or regularization. Empirically, PFD achieves consistent improvements on LIBERO and RoboTwin manipulation benchmarks while preserving the current-only inference interface at negligible added latency. This view reframes the role of future information in world action models: not as a target to predict, nor as a regularizer to absorb, but as a compressible correction to be distilled.

Egocentric video-language understanding demands both high efficiency and accurate spatial-temporal modeling. Existing approaches face three key challenges: 1) Excessive pre-training cost arising from multi-stage pre-training pipelines, 2) Ineffective spatial-temporal encoding due to manually split 3D rotary positional embeddings that hinder feature interactions, and 3) Imprecise learning objectives in soft-label multi-instance retrieval, which neglect negative pair correlations. In this paper, we introduce EVA02-AT, a suite of EVA02-based video-language foundation models tailored to egocentric video understanding tasks. EVA02-AT first efficiently transfers an image-based CLIP model into a unified video encoder via a single-stage pretraining. Second, instead of applying rotary positional embeddings to isolated dimensions, we introduce spatial-temporal rotary positional embeddings along with joint attention, which can effectively encode both spatial and temporal information on the entire hidden dimension. This joint encoding of spatial-temporal features enables the model to learn cross-axis relationships, which are crucial for accurately modeling motion and interaction in videos. Third, focusing on multi-instance video-language retrieval tasks, we introduce the Symmetric Multi-Similarity (SMS) loss and a novel training framework that advances all soft labels for both positive and negative pairs, providing a more precise learning objective. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, EPIC-Kitchens-100, and Charades-Ego under zero-shot and fine-tuning settings demonstrate that EVA02-AT achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse egocentric video-language tasks with fewer parameters. Models with our SMS loss also show significant performance gains on multi-instance retrieval benchmarks. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/xqwang14/EVA02-AT .

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

The Shapley value is one of the most widely used measures of feature importance partly as it measures a feature's average effect on a model's prediction. We introduce joint Shapley values, which directly extend Shapley's axioms and intuitions: joint Shapley values measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction. We prove the uniqueness of joint Shapley values, for any order of explanation. Results for games show that joint Shapley values present different insights from existing interaction indices, which assess the effect of a feature within a set of features. The joint Shapley values provide intuitive results in ML attribution problems. With binary features, we present a presence-adjusted global value that is more consistent with local intuitions than the usual approach.

Two competing paradigms exist for self-supervised learning of data representations. Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) is a class of architectures in which semantically similar inputs are encoded into representations that are predictive of each other. A recent successful approach that falls under the JEPA framework is self-distillation, where an online encoder is trained to predict the output of the target encoder, sometimes using a lightweight predictor network. This is contrasted with the Masked AutoEncoder (MAE) paradigm, where an encoder and decoder are trained to reconstruct missing parts of the input in the data space rather, than its latent representation. A common motivation for using the JEPA approach over MAE is that the JEPA objective prioritizes abstract features over fine-grained pixel information (which can be unpredictable and uninformative). In this work, we seek to understand the mechanism behind this empirical observation by analyzing the training dynamics of deep linear models. We uncover a surprising mechanism: in a simplified linear setting where both approaches learn similar representations, JEPAs are biased to learn high-influence features, i.e., features characterized by having high regression coefficients. Our results point to a distinct implicit bias of predicting in latent space that may shed light on its success in practice.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

We introduce Brain-JEPA, a brain dynamics foundation model with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA). This pioneering model achieves state-of-the-art performance in demographic prediction, disease diagnosis/prognosis, and trait prediction through fine-tuning. Furthermore, it excels in off-the-shelf evaluations (e.g., linear probing) and demonstrates superior generalizability across different ethnic groups, surpassing the previous large model for brain activity significantly. Brain-JEPA incorporates two innovative techniques: Brain Gradient Positioning and Spatiotemporal Masking. Brain Gradient Positioning introduces a functional coordinate system for brain functional parcellation, enhancing the positional encoding of different Regions of Interest (ROIs). Spatiotemporal Masking, tailored to the unique characteristics of fMRI data, addresses the challenge of heterogeneous time-series patches. These methodologies enhance model performance and advance our understanding of the neural circuits underlying cognition. Overall, Brain-JEPA is paving the way to address pivotal questions of building brain functional coordinate system and masking brain activity at the AI-neuroscience interface, and setting a potentially new paradigm in brain activity analysis through downstream adaptation.

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

In lung radiotherapy, infrared cameras can track reflective objects on the chest to estimate tumor motion due to breathing, but treatment system latencies hinder radiation beam precision. Real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) is a potential solution that can learn patterns within non-stationary respiratory data but has high complexity. This study assesses the capabilities of resource-efficient online RNN algorithms, namely unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO), sparse-1 step approximation (SnAp-1), and decoupled neural interfaces (DNI) to forecast respiratory motion during radiotherapy treatment accurately. We use time series containing the 3D positions of external markers on the chest of healthy subjects. We propose efficient implementations for SnAp-1 and DNI that compress the influence and immediate Jacobian matrices and accurately update the linear coefficients used in credit assignment estimation, respectively. Data was originally sampled at 10Hz; we resampled it at 3.33Hz and 30Hz to analyze the effect of the sampling rate on performance. We use UORO, SnAp-1, and DNI to forecast each marker's 3D position with horizons h<=2.1s (the time interval in advance for which the prediction is made) and compare them with RTRL, least mean squares, kernel support vector regression, and linear regression. RNNs trained online achieved similar or better accuracy than most previous works using larger training databases and deep learning, even though we used only the first minute of each sequence to predict motion within that exact sequence. SnAp-1 had the lowest normalized root mean square errors (nRMSEs) averaged over the horizon values considered, equal to 0.335 and 0.157, at 3.33Hz and 10.0Hz, respectively. Similarly, UORO had the lowest nRMSE at 30Hz, equal to 0.086. DNI's inference time (6.8ms per time step at 30Hz, Intel Core i7-13700 CPU) was the lowest among the RNN methods.

Radiographic assessment of lower-limb alignment (LLA) is important for predicting joint health and surgical outcomes in total knee arthroplasty. Traditional measurement methods are manual and time-consuming, while recent machine learning approaches typically rely on locating a fixed set of anatomical landmarks. This dependence limits flexibility and may require re-annotation when clinical definitions change. To address this, we propose an automated workflow using Implicit Neural Shape Functions (INSF). Rather than relying on explicit landmark coordinates, we encode the anatomy into a compact latent space and regress clinical alignment measurements directly from these latent codes. This architecture allows for rapid extendability to new tasks without altering the backbone representation. We trained our method on an internal dataset of 566 knee radiographs, each annotated with the outline of the femur and tibia. We evaluated it on both an internal test dataset of 50 patients and a separate external set of 402 preoperative cases from the MRKR dataset. Manual clinical measurements are available for these data, and the MRKR measurements will be made publicly accessible. Performance was comparable to state-of-the-art landmark-based methods and manual agreement, while offering a flexible shape representation that can be extended to additional measurement tasks.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

In this paper, we present a regression-based pose recognition method using cascade Transformers. One way to categorize the existing approaches in this domain is to separate them into 1). heatmap-based and 2). regression-based. In general, heatmap-based methods achieve higher accuracy but are subject to various heuristic designs (not end-to-end mostly), whereas regression-based approaches attain relatively lower accuracy but they have less intermediate non-differentiable steps. Here we utilize the encoder-decoder structure in Transformers to perform regression-based person and keypoint detection that is general-purpose and requires less heuristic design compared with the existing approaches. We demonstrate the keypoint hypothesis (query) refinement process across different self-attention layers to reveal the recursive self-attention mechanism in Transformers. In the experiments, we report competitive results for pose recognition when compared with the competing regression-based methods.

As a promising fashion for visual localization, scene coordinate regression (SCR) has seen tremendous progress in the past decade. Most recent methods usually adopt neural networks to learn the mapping from image pixels to 3D scene coordinates, which requires a vast amount of annotated training data. We propose to leverage Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) to generate training samples for SCR. Despite NeRF's efficiency in rendering, many of the rendered data are polluted by artifacts or only contain minimal information gain, which can hinder the regression accuracy or bring unnecessary computational costs with redundant data. These challenges are addressed in three folds in this paper: (1) A NeRF is designed to separately predict uncertainties for the rendered color and depth images, which reveal data reliability at the pixel level. (2) SCR is formulated as deep evidential learning with epistemic uncertainty, which is used to evaluate information gain and scene coordinate quality. (3) Based on the three arts of uncertainties, a novel view selection policy is formed that significantly improves data efficiency. Experiments on public datasets demonstrate that our method could select the samples that bring the most information gain and promote the performance with the highest efficiency.

Understanding articulated objects is a fundamental challenge in robotics and digital twin creation. To effectively model such objects, it is essential to recover both part segmentation and the underlying joint parameters. Despite the importance of this task, previous work has largely focused on setups like multi-view systems, object scanning, or static cameras. In this paper, we present the first data-driven approach that jointly predicts part segmentation and joint parameters from monocular video captured with a freely moving camera. Trained solely on synthetic data, our method demonstrates strong generalization to real-world objects, offering a scalable and practical solution for articulated object understanding. Our approach operates directly on casually recorded video, making it suitable for real-time applications in dynamic environments. Project webpage: https://aartykov.github.io/sim2art/

Inferring the 3D structure underlying a set of multi-view images typically requires solving two co-dependent tasks -- accurate 3D reconstruction requires precise camera poses, and predicting camera poses relies on (implicitly or explicitly) modeling the underlying 3D. The classical framework of analysis by synthesis casts this inference as a joint optimization seeking to explain the observed pixels, and recent instantiations learn expressive 3D representations (e.g., Neural Fields) with gradient-descent-based pose refinement of initial pose estimates. However, given a sparse set of observed views, the observations may not provide sufficient direct evidence to obtain complete and accurate 3D. Moreover, large errors in pose estimation may not be easily corrected and can further degrade the inferred 3D. To allow robust 3D reconstruction and pose estimation in this challenging setup, we propose SparseAGS, a method that adapts this analysis-by-synthesis approach by: a) including novel-view-synthesis-based generative priors in conjunction with photometric objectives to improve the quality of the inferred 3D, and b) explicitly reasoning about outliers and using a discrete search with a continuous optimization-based strategy to correct them. We validate our framework across real-world and synthetic datasets in combination with several off-the-shelf pose estimation systems as initialization. We find that it significantly improves the base systems' pose accuracy while yielding high-quality 3D reconstructions that outperform the results from current multi-view reconstruction baselines.

LLM-based listwise passage reranking has attracted attention for its effectiveness in ranking candidate passages. However, these models suffer from positional bias, where passages positioned towards the end of the input are less likely to be moved to top positions in the ranking. We hypothesize that there are two primary sources of positional bias: (1) architectural bias inherent in LLMs and (2) the imbalanced positioning of relevant documents. To address this, we propose DebiasFirst, a method that integrates positional calibration and position-aware data augmentation during fine-tuning. Positional calibration uses inverse propensity scoring to adjust for positional bias by re-weighting the contributions of different positions in the loss function when training. Position-aware augmentation augments training data to ensure that each passage appears equally across varied positions in the input list. This approach markedly enhances both effectiveness and robustness to the original ranking across diverse first-stage retrievers, reducing the dependence of NDCG@10 performance on the position of relevant documents. DebiasFirst also complements the inference-stage debiasing methods, offering a practical solution for mitigating positional bias in reranking.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Regression models are crucial in recommender systems. However, retransformation bias problem has been conspicuously neglected within the community. While many works in other fields have devised effective bias correction methods, all of them are post-hoc cures externally to the model, facing practical challenges when applied to real-world recommender systems. Hence, we propose a preemptive paradigm to eradicate the bias intrinsically from the models via minor model refinement. Specifically, a novel TranSUN method is proposed with a joint bias learning manner to offer theoretically guaranteed unbiasedness under empirical superior convergence. It is further generalized into a novel generic regression model family, termed Generalized TranSUN (GTS), which not only offers more theoretical insights but also serves as a generic framework for flexibly developing various bias-free models. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our methods across data from various domains, which have been successfully deployed in two real-world industrial recommendation scenarios, i.e. product and short video recommendation scenarios in Guess What You Like business domain in the homepage of Taobao App (a leading e-commerce platform with DAU > 300M), to serve the major online traffic.

In this work we propose a novel joint training method for Visual Place Recognition (VPR), which simultaneously learns a global descriptor and a pair classifier for re-ranking. The pair classifier can predict whether a given pair of images are from the same place or not. The network only comprises Vision Transformer components for both the encoder and the pair classifier, and both components are trained using their respective class tokens. In existing VPR methods, typically the network is initialized using pre-trained weights from a generic image dataset such as ImageNet. In this work we propose an alternative pre-training strategy, by using Siamese Masked Image Modelling as a pre-training task. We propose a Place-aware image sampling procedure from a collection of large VPR datasets for pre-training our model, to learn visual features tuned specifically for VPR. By re-using the Mask Image Modelling encoder and decoder weights in the second stage of training, Pair-VPR can achieve state-of-the-art VPR performance across five benchmark datasets with a ViT-B encoder, along with further improvements in localization recall with larger encoders. The Pair-VPR website is: https://csiro-robotics.github.io/Pair-VPR.