Daily Papers

The rich and multifaceted nature of human social interaction, encompassing multimodal cues, unobservable relations and mental states, and dynamical behavior, presents a formidable challenge for artificial intelligence. To advance research in this area, we introduce SIV-Bench, a novel video benchmark for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) across Social Scene Understanding (SSU), Social State Reasoning (SSR), and Social Dynamics Prediction (SDP). SIV-Bench features 2,792 video clips and 8,792 meticulously generated question-answer pairs derived from a human-LLM collaborative pipeline. It is originally collected from TikTok and YouTube, covering a wide range of video genres, presentation styles, and linguistic and cultural backgrounds. It also includes a dedicated setup for analyzing the impact of different textual cues-original on-screen text, added dialogue, or no text. Our comprehensive experiments on leading MLLMs reveal that while models adeptly handle SSU, they significantly struggle with SSR and SDP, where Relation Inference (RI) is an acute bottleneck, as further examined in our analysis. Our study also confirms the critical role of transcribed dialogue in aiding comprehension of complex social interactions. By systematically identifying current MLLMs' strengths and limitations, SIV-Bench offers crucial insights to steer the development of more socially intelligent AI. The dataset and code are available at https://kfq20.github.io/sivbench/.

Social media popularity prediction task aims to predict the popularity of posts on social media platforms, which has a positive driving effect on application scenarios such as content optimization, digital marketing and online advertising. Though many studies have made significant progress, few of them pay much attention to the integration between popularity prediction with temporal alignment. In this paper, with exploring YouTube's multilingual and multi-modal content, we construct a new social media temporal popularity prediction benchmark, namely SMTPD, and suggest a baseline framework for temporal popularity prediction. Through data analysis and experiments, we verify that temporal alignment and early popularity play crucial roles in social media popularity prediction for not only deepening the understanding of temporal dynamics of popularity in social media but also offering a suggestion about developing more effective prediction models in this field. Code is available at https://github.com/zhuwei321/SMTPD.

The concept of world models has garnered significant attention due to advancements in multimodal large language models such as GPT-4 and video generation models such as Sora, which are central to the pursuit of artificial general intelligence. This survey offers a comprehensive review of the literature on world models. Generally, world models are regarded as tools for either understanding the present state of the world or predicting its future dynamics. This review presents a systematic categorization of world models, emphasizing two primary functions: (1) constructing internal representations to understand the mechanisms of the world, and (2) predicting future states to simulate and guide decision-making. Initially, we examine the current progress in these two categories. We then explore the application of world models in key domains, including generative games, autonomous driving, robotics, and social simulacra, with a focus on how each domain utilizes these aspects. Finally, we outline key challenges and provide insights into potential future research directions. We summarize the representative papers along with their code repositories in https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/World-Model.

As AI agents increasingly operate in multi-agent environments, understanding their collective behavior becomes critical for predicting the dynamics of artificial societies. This study examines conformity, the tendency to align with group opinions under social pressure, in large multimodal language models functioning as AI agents. By adapting classic visual experiments from social psychology, we investigate how AI agents respond to group influence as social actors. Our experiments reveal that AI agents exhibit a systematic conformity bias, aligned with Social Impact Theory, showing sensitivity to group size, unanimity, task difficulty, and source characteristics. Critically, AI agents achieving near-perfect performance in isolation become highly susceptible to manipulation through social influence. This vulnerability persists across model scales: while larger models show reduced conformity on simple tasks due to improved capabilities, they remain vulnerable when operating at their competence boundary. These findings reveal fundamental security vulnerabilities in AI agent decision-making that could enable malicious manipulation, misinformation campaigns, and bias propagation in multi-agent systems, highlighting the urgent need for safeguards in collective AI deployments.

Multi-agent motion prediction is challenging because it aims to foresee the future trajectories of multiple agents (e.g. pedestrians) simultaneously in a complicated scene. Existing work addressed this challenge by either learning social spatial interactions represented by the positions of a group of pedestrians, while ignoring their temporal coherence (i.e. dependencies between different long trajectories), or by understanding the complicated scene layout (e.g. scene segmentation) to ensure safe navigation. However, unlike previous work that isolated the spatial interaction, temporal coherence, and scene layout, this paper designs a new mechanism, i.e., Dynamic and Static Context-aware Motion Predictor (DSCMP), to integrates these rich information into the long-short-term-memory (LSTM). It has three appealing benefits. (1) DSCMP models the dynamic interactions between agents by learning both their spatial positions and temporal coherence, as well as understanding the contextual scene layout.(2) Different from previous LSTM models that predict motions by propagating hidden features frame by frame, limiting the capacity to learn correlations between long trajectories, we carefully design a differentiable queue mechanism in DSCMP, which is able to explicitly memorize and learn the correlations between long trajectories. (3) DSCMP captures the context of scene by inferring latent variable, which enables multimodal predictions with meaningful semantic scene layout. Extensive experiments show that DSCMP outperforms state-of-the-art methods by large margins, such as 9.05\% and 7.62\% relative improvements on the ETH-UCY and SDD datasets respectively.

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

Gaze following and social gaze prediction are fundamental tasks providing insights into human communication behaviors, intent, and social interactions. Most previous approaches addressed these tasks separately, either by designing highly specialized social gaze models that do not generalize to other social gaze tasks or by considering social gaze inference as an ad-hoc post-processing of the gaze following task. Furthermore, the vast majority of gaze following approaches have proposed static models that can handle only one person at a time, therefore failing to take advantage of social interactions and temporal dynamics. In this paper, we address these limitations and introduce a novel framework to jointly predict the gaze target and social gaze label for all people in the scene. The framework comprises of: (i) a temporal, transformer-based architecture that, in addition to image tokens, handles person-specific tokens capturing the gaze information related to each individual; (ii) a new dataset, VSGaze, that unifies annotation types across multiple gaze following and social gaze datasets. We show that our model trained on VSGaze can address all tasks jointly, and achieves state-of-the-art results for multi-person gaze following and social gaze prediction.

Node centralities play a pivotal role in network science, social network analysis, and recommender systems. In temporal data, static path-based centralities like closeness or betweenness can give misleading results about the true importance of nodes in a temporal graph. To address this issue, temporal generalizations of betweenness and closeness have been defined that are based on the shortest time-respecting paths between pairs of nodes. However, a major issue of those generalizations is that the calculation of such paths is computationally expensive. Addressing this issue, we study the application of De Bruijn Graph Neural Networks (DBGNN), a causality-aware graph neural network architecture, to predict temporal path-based centralities in time series data. We experimentally evaluate our approach in 13 temporal graphs from biological and social systems and show that it considerably improves the prediction of both betweenness and closeness centrality compared to a static Graph Convolutional Neural Network.

Large language models (LLMs) possess extensive world knowledge, including geospatial knowledge, which has been successfully applied to various geospatial tasks such as mobility prediction and social indicator prediction. However, LLMs often generate inaccurate geospatial knowledge, leading to geospatial hallucinations (incorrect or inconsistent representations of geospatial information) that compromise their reliability. While the phenomenon of general knowledge hallucination in LLMs has been widely studied, the systematic evaluation and mitigation of geospatial hallucinations remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, we propose a comprehensive evaluation framework for geospatial hallucinations, leveraging structured geospatial knowledge graphs for controlled assessment. Through extensive evaluation across 20 advanced LLMs, we uncover the hallucinations in their geospatial knowledge. Building on these insights, we introduce a dynamic factuality aligning method based on Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO) to mitigate geospatial hallucinations in LLMs, leading to a performance improvement of over 29.6% on the proposed benchmark. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our benchmark and learning algorithm in enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs in geospatial knowledge and reasoning tasks.

This survey draws a broad-stroke, panoramic picture of the State of the Art (SoTA) of the research in generative methods for the analysis of social media data. It fills a void, as the existing survey articles are either much narrower in their scope or are dated. We included two important aspects that currently gain importance in mining and modeling social media: dynamics and networks. Social dynamics are important for understanding the spreading of influence or diseases, formation of friendships, the productivity of teams, etc. Networks, on the other hand, may capture various complex relationships providing additional insight and identifying important patterns that would otherwise go unnoticed.

Analyzing and forecasting trajectories of agents like pedestrians and cars in complex scenes has become more and more significant in many intelligent systems and applications. The diversity and uncertainty in socially interactive behaviors among a rich variety of agents make this task more challenging than other deterministic computer vision tasks. Researchers have made a lot of efforts to quantify the effects of these interactions on future trajectories through different mathematical models and network structures, but this problem has not been well solved. Inspired by marine animals that localize the positions of their companions underwater through echoes, we build a new anglebased trainable social interaction representation, named SocialCircle, for continuously reflecting the context of social interactions at different angular orientations relative to the target agent. We validate the effect of the proposed SocialCircle by training it along with several newly released trajectory prediction models, and experiments show that the SocialCircle not only quantitatively improves the prediction performance, but also qualitatively helps better simulate social interactions when forecasting pedestrian trajectories in a way that is consistent with human intuitions.

Social network simulation plays a crucial role in addressing various challenges within social science. It offers extensive applications such as state prediction, phenomena explanation, and policy-making support, among others. In this work, we harness the formidable human-like capabilities exhibited by large language models (LLMs) in sensing, reasoning, and behaving, and utilize these qualities to construct the S^3 system (short for Social network Simulation System). Adhering to the widely employed agent-based simulation paradigm, we employ prompt engineering and prompt tuning techniques to ensure that the agent's behavior closely emulates that of a genuine human within the social network. Specifically, we simulate three pivotal aspects: emotion, attitude, and interaction behaviors. By endowing the agent in the system with the ability to perceive the informational environment and emulate human actions, we observe the emergence of population-level phenomena, including the propagation of information, attitudes, and emotions. We conduct an evaluation encompassing two levels of simulation, employing real-world social network data. Encouragingly, the results demonstrate promising accuracy. This work represents an initial step in the realm of social network simulation empowered by LLM-based agents. We anticipate that our endeavors will serve as a source of inspiration for the development of simulation systems within, but not limited to, social science.

Capturing high-dimensional social interactions and feasible futures is essential for predicting trajectories. To address this complex nature, several attempts have been devoted to reducing the dimensionality of the output variables via parametric curve fitting such as the B\'ezier curve and B-spline function. However, these functions, which originate in computer graphics fields, are not suitable to account for socially acceptable human dynamics. In this paper, we present EigenTrajectory (ET), a trajectory prediction approach that uses a novel trajectory descriptor to form a compact space, known here as ET space, in place of Euclidean space, for representing pedestrian movements. We first reduce the complexity of the trajectory descriptor via a low-rank approximation. We transform the pedestrians' history paths into our ET space represented by spatio-temporal principle components, and feed them into off-the-shelf trajectory forecasting models. The inputs and outputs of the models as well as social interactions are all gathered and aggregated in the corresponding ET space. Lastly, we propose a trajectory anchor-based refinement method to cover all possible futures in the proposed ET space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EigenTrajectory predictor can significantly improve both the prediction accuracy and reliability of existing trajectory forecasting models on public benchmarks, indicating that the proposed descriptor is suited to represent pedestrian behaviors. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/EigenTrajectory .

Demystifying the interactions among multiple agents from their past trajectories is fundamental to precise and interpretable trajectory prediction. However, previous works mainly consider static, pair-wise interactions with limited relational reasoning. To promote more comprehensive interaction modeling and relational reasoning, we propose DynGroupNet, a dynamic-group-aware network, which can i) model time-varying interactions in highly dynamic scenes; ii) capture both pair-wise and group-wise interactions; and iii) reason both interaction strength and category without direct supervision. Based on DynGroupNet, we further design a prediction system to forecast socially plausible trajectories with dynamic relational reasoning. The proposed prediction system leverages the Gaussian mixture model, multiple sampling and prediction refinement to promote prediction diversity, training stability and trajectory smoothness, respectively. Extensive experiments show that: 1)DynGroupNet can capture time-varying group behaviors, infer time-varying interaction category and interaction strength during trajectory prediction without any relation supervision on physical simulation datasets; 2)DynGroupNet outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction methods by a significant improvement of 22.6%/28.0%, 26.9%/34.9%, 5.1%/13.0% in ADE/FDE on the NBA, NFL Football and SDD datasets and achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the ETH-UCY dataset.

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events -- from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs -- remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

Social network simulation is developed to provide a comprehensive understanding of social networks in the real world, which can be leveraged for a wide range of applications such as group behavior emergence, policy optimization, and business strategy development. However, billions of individuals and their evolving interactions involved in social networks pose challenges in accurately reflecting real-world complexities. In this study, we propose a comprehensive Social Network Simulation System (GA-S3) that leverages newly designed Group Agents to make intelligent decisions regarding various online events. Unlike other intelligent agents that represent an individual entity, our group agents model a collection of individuals exhibiting similar behaviors, facilitating the simulation of large-scale network phenomena with complex interactions at a manageable computational cost. Additionally, we have constructed a social network benchmark from 2024 popular online events that contains fine-grained information on Internet traffic variations. The experiment demonstrates that our approach is capable of achieving accurate and highly realistic prediction results. Code is open at https://github.com/AI4SS/GAS-3.

Understanding human social behaviour is crucial in computer vision and robotics. Micro-level observations like individual actions fall short, necessitating a comprehensive approach that considers individual behaviour, intra-group dynamics, and social group levels for a thorough understanding. To address dataset limitations, this paper introduces JRDB-Social, an extension of JRDB. Designed to fill gaps in human understanding across diverse indoor and outdoor social contexts, JRDB-Social provides annotations at three levels: individual attributes, intra-group interactions, and social group context. This dataset aims to enhance our grasp of human social dynamics for robotic applications. Utilizing the recent cutting-edge multi-modal large language models, we evaluated our benchmark to explore their capacity to decipher social human behaviour.

Understanding human behavior and society is a central focus in social sciences, with the rise of generative social science marking a significant paradigmatic shift. By leveraging bottom-up simulations, it replaces costly and logistically challenging traditional experiments with scalable, replicable, and systematic computational approaches for studying complex social dynamics. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have further transformed this research paradigm, enabling the creation of human-like generative social agents and realistic simulacra of society. In this paper, we propose AgentSociety, a large-scale social simulator that integrates LLM-driven agents, a realistic societal environment, and a powerful large-scale simulation engine. Based on the proposed simulator, we generate social lives for over 10k agents, simulating their 5 million interactions both among agents and between agents and their environment. Furthermore, we explore the potential of AgentSociety as a testbed for computational social experiments, focusing on four key social issues: polarization, the spread of inflammatory messages, the effects of universal basic income policies, and the impact of external shocks such as hurricanes. These four issues serve as valuable cases for assessing AgentSociety's support for typical research methods -- such as surveys, interviews, and interventions -- as well as for investigating the patterns, causes, and underlying mechanisms of social issues. The alignment between AgentSociety's outcomes and real-world experimental results not only demonstrates its ability to capture human behaviors and their underlying mechanisms, but also underscores its potential as an important platform for social scientists and policymakers.

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

Modeling dynamic graphs, such as those found in social networks, recommendation systems, and e-commerce platforms, is crucial for capturing evolving relationships and delivering relevant insights over time. Traditional approaches primarily rely on graph neural networks with temporal components or sequence generation models, which often focus narrowly on the historical context of target nodes. This limitation restricts the ability to adapt to new and emerging patterns in dynamic graphs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework, Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Dynamic Graph modeling (RAG4DyG), which enhances dynamic graph predictions by incorporating contextually and temporally relevant examples from broader graph structures. Our approach includes a time- and context-aware contrastive learning module to identify high-quality demonstrations and a graph fusion strategy to effectively integrate these examples with historical contexts. The proposed framework is designed to be effective in both transductive and inductive scenarios, ensuring adaptability to previously unseen nodes and evolving graph structures. Extensive experiments across multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of RAG4DyG in improving predictive accuracy and adaptability for dynamic graph modeling. The code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiaWu/RAG4DyG.

With the overwhelming amount of data available both on and offline today, recommender systems have become much needed to help users find items tailored to their interests. When social network information exists there are methods that utilize this information to make better recommendations, however the methods are often clunky with complex architectures and training procedures. Furthermore many of the existing methods utilize graph neural networks which are notoriously difficult to train. To address this, we propose Socially-aware Temporally caUsal Decoder recommender sYstems (STUDY). STUDY does joint inference over groups of users who are adjacent in the social network graph using a single forward pass of a modified transformer decoder network. We test our method in a school-based educational content setting, using classroom structure to define social networks. Our method outperforms both social and sequential methods while maintaining the design simplicity of a single homogeneous network that models all interactions in the data. We also carry out ablation studies to understand the drivers of our performance gains and find that our model depends on leveraging a social network structure that effectively models the similarities in user behavior.

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

This paper introduces a simulator designed for opinion dynamics researchers to model competing influences within social networks in the presence of LLM-based agents. By integrating established opinion dynamics principles with state-of-the-art LLMs, this tool enables the study of influence propagation and counter-misinformation strategies. The simulator is particularly valuable for researchers in social science, psychology, and operations research, allowing them to analyse societal phenomena without requiring extensive coding expertise. Additionally, the simulator will be openly available on GitHub, ensuring accessibility and adaptability for those who wish to extend its capabilities for their own research.

Most graph neural network models learn embeddings of nodes in static attributed graphs for predictive analysis. Recent attempts have been made to learn temporal proximity of the nodes. We find that real dynamic attributed graphs exhibit complex co-evolution of node attributes and graph structure. Learning node embeddings for forecasting change of node attributes and birth and death of links over time remains an open problem. In this work, we present a novel framework called CoEvoGNN for modeling dynamic attributed graph sequence. It preserves the impact of earlier graphs on the current graph by embedding generation through the sequence. It has a temporal self-attention mechanism to model long-range dependencies in the evolution. Moreover, CoEvoGNN optimizes model parameters jointly on two dynamic tasks, attribute inference and link prediction over time. So the model can capture the co-evolutionary patterns of attribute change and link formation. This framework can adapt to any graph neural algorithms so we implemented and investigated three methods based on it: CoEvoGCN, CoEvoGAT, and CoEvoSAGE. Experiments demonstrate the framework (and its methods) outperform strong baselines on predicting an entire unseen graph snapshot of personal attributes and interpersonal links in dynamic social graphs and financial graphs.

Humans intuitively navigate social interactions by simulating unspoken dynamics and reasoning about others' perspectives, even with limited information. In contrast, AI systems struggle to automatically structure and reason about these implicit social contexts. In this paper, we introduce a novel structured social world representation formalism (S3AP), designed to help AI systems reason more effectively about social dynamics. Following a POMDP-driven design, S3AP represents social interactions as structured tuples, such as state, observation, agent actions, and mental states, which can be automatically induced from free-form narratives or other inputs. We first show S3AP can help LLMs better understand social narratives across 5 social reasoning tasks (e.g., +51% improvement on FANToM's theory-of-mind reasoning with OpenAI's o1), reaching new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. We then induce social world models from these structured representations, demonstrating their ability to predict future social dynamics and improve agent decision-making, yielding up to +18% improvement on the SOTOPIA social interaction benchmark. Our findings highlight the promise of S3AP as a powerful, general-purpose representation for social world states, enabling the development of more socially-aware systems that better navigate social interactions.

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions-such as views, likes, or downloads-are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets-arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories)-and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page views -> edits), Spotify (streams -> concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs -> purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views -> messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. Our data portal with downloads and documentation is available at https://lead-lag-forecasting.github.io/.

Learning socially-aware motion representations is at the core of recent advances in multi-agent problems, such as human motion forecasting and robot navigation in crowds. Despite promising progress, existing representations learned with neural networks still struggle to generalize in closed-loop predictions (e.g., output colliding trajectories). This issue largely arises from the non-i.i.d. nature of sequential prediction in conjunction with ill-distributed training data. Intuitively, if the training data only comes from human behaviors in safe spaces, i.e., from "positive" examples, it is difficult for learning algorithms to capture the notion of "negative" examples like collisions. In this work, we aim to address this issue by explicitly modeling negative examples through self-supervision: (i) we introduce a social contrastive loss that regularizes the extracted motion representation by discerning the ground-truth positive events from synthetic negative ones; (ii) we construct informative negative samples based on our prior knowledge of rare but dangerous circumstances. Our method substantially reduces the collision rates of recent trajectory forecasting, behavioral cloning and reinforcement learning algorithms, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/social-nce.

Social computing prototypes probe the social behaviors that may arise in an envisioned system design. This prototyping practice is currently limited to recruiting small groups of people. Unfortunately, many challenges do not arise until a system is populated at a larger scale. Can a designer understand how a social system might behave when populated, and make adjustments to the design before the system falls prey to such challenges? We introduce social simulacra, a prototyping technique that generates a breadth of realistic social interactions that may emerge when a social computing system is populated. Social simulacra take as input the designer's description of a community's design -- goal, rules, and member personas -- and produce as output an instance of that design with simulated behavior, including posts, replies, and anti-social behaviors. We demonstrate that social simulacra shift the behaviors that they generate appropriately in response to design changes, and that they enable exploration of "what if?" scenarios where community members or moderators intervene. To power social simulacra, we contribute techniques for prompting a large language model to generate thousands of distinct community members and their social interactions with each other; these techniques are enabled by the observation that large language models' training data already includes a wide variety of positive and negative behavior on social media platforms. In evaluations, we show that participants are often unable to distinguish social simulacra from actual community behavior and that social computing designers successfully refine their social computing designs when using social simulacra.

We present a novel, open-source social network simulation framework, MOSAIC, where generative language agents predict user behaviors such as liking, sharing, and flagging content. This simulation combines LLM agents with a directed social graph to analyze emergent deception behaviors and gain a better understanding of how users determine the veracity of online social content. By constructing user representations from diverse fine-grained personas, our system enables multi-agent simulations that model content dissemination and engagement dynamics at scale. Within this framework, we evaluate three different content moderation strategies with simulated misinformation dissemination, and we find that they not only mitigate the spread of non-factual content but also increase user engagement. In addition, we analyze the trajectories of popular content in our simulations, and explore whether simulation agents' articulated reasoning for their social interactions truly aligns with their collective engagement patterns. We open-source our simulation software to encourage further research within AI and social sciences.

In this study, we propose a novel graph-based approach to model, analyze and comprehend user interactions within a social media platform based on post-comment relationship. We construct a user interaction graph from social media data and analyze it to gain insights into community dynamics, user behavior, and content preferences. Our investigation reveals that while 56.05% of the active users are strongly connected within the community, only 0.8% of them significantly contribute to its dynamics. Moreover, we observe temporal variations in community activity, with certain periods experiencing heightened engagement. Additionally, our findings highlight a correlation between user activity and popularity showing that more active users are generally more popular. Alongside these, a preference for positive and informative content is also observed where 82.41% users preferred positive and informative content. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and managing online communities, leveraging graph-based techniques to gain valuable insights into user behavior and community dynamics.

Facing the current debate on whether Large Language Models (LLMs) attain near-human intelligence levels (Mitchell & Krakauer, 2023; Bubeck et al., 2023; Kosinski, 2023; Shiffrin & Mitchell, 2023; Ullman, 2023), the current study introduces a benchmark for evaluating social intelligence, one of the most distinctive aspects of human cognition. We developed a comprehensive theoretical framework for social dynamics and introduced two evaluation tasks: Inverse Reasoning (IR) and Inverse Inverse Planning (IIP). Our approach also encompassed a computational model based on recursive Bayesian inference, adept at elucidating diverse human behavioral patterns. Extensive experiments and detailed analyses revealed that humans surpassed the latest GPT models in overall performance, zero-shot learning, one-shot generalization, and adaptability to multi-modalities. Notably, GPT models demonstrated social intelligence only at the most basic order (order = 0), in stark contrast to human social intelligence (order >= 2). Further examination indicated a propensity of LLMs to rely on pattern recognition for shortcuts, casting doubt on their possession of authentic human-level social intelligence. Our codes, dataset, appendix and human data are released at https://github.com/bigai-ai/Evaluate-n-Model-Social-Intelligence.

The study of social emergence has long been a central focus in social science. Traditional modeling approaches, such as rule-based Agent-Based Models (ABMs), struggle to capture the diversity and complexity of human behavior, particularly the irrational factors emphasized in behavioral economics. Recently, large language model (LLM) agents have gained traction as simulation tools for modeling human behavior in social science and role-playing applications. Studies suggest that LLMs can account for cognitive biases, emotional fluctuations, and other non-rational influences, enabling more realistic simulations of socio-economic dynamics. In this work, we introduce TwinMarket, a novel multi-agent framework that leverages LLMs to simulate socio-economic systems. Specifically, we examine how individual behaviors, through interactions and feedback mechanisms, give rise to collective dynamics and emergent phenomena. Through experiments in a simulated stock market environment, we demonstrate how individual actions can trigger group behaviors, leading to emergent outcomes such as financial bubbles and recessions. Our approach provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between individual decision-making and collective socio-economic patterns.

Useful social science theories predict behavior across settings. However, applying a theory to make predictions in new settings is challenging: rarely can it be done without ad hoc modifications to account for setting-specific factors. We argue that AI agents put in simulations of those novel settings offer an alternative for applying theory, requiring minimal or no modifications. We present an approach for building such "general" agents that use theory-grounded natural language instructions, existing empirical data, and knowledge acquired by the underlying AI during training. To demonstrate the approach in settings where no data from that data-generating process exists--as is often the case in applied prediction problems--we design a heterogeneous population of 883,320 novel games. AI agents are constructed using human data from a small set of conceptually related but structurally distinct "seed" games. In preregistered experiments, on average, agents predict initial human play in a random sample of 1,500 games from the population better than (i) a cognitive hierarchy model, (ii) game-theoretic equilibria, and (iii) out-of-the-box agents. For a small set of separate novel games, these simulations predict responses from a new sample of human subjects better even than the most plausibly relevant published human data.

Traditional sociological research often relies on human participation, which, though effective, is expensive, challenging to scale, and with ethical concerns. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) highlight their potential to simulate human behavior, enabling the replication of individual responses and facilitating studies on many interdisciplinary studies. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey of this field, illustrating the recent progress in simulation driven by LLM-empowered agents. We categorize the simulations into three types: (1) Individual Simulation, which mimics specific individuals or demographic groups; (2) Scenario Simulation, where multiple agents collaborate to achieve goals within specific contexts; and (3) Society Simulation, which models interactions within agent societies to reflect the complexity and variety of real-world dynamics. These simulations follow a progression, ranging from detailed individual modeling to large-scale societal phenomena. We provide a detailed discussion of each simulation type, including the architecture or key components of the simulation, the classification of objectives or scenarios and the evaluation method. Afterward, we summarize commonly used datasets and benchmarks. Finally, we discuss the trends across these three types of simulation. A repository for the related sources is at {https://github.com/FudanDISC/SocialAgent}.

Effective interaction modeling and behavior prediction of dynamic agents play a significant role in interactive motion planning for autonomous robots. Although existing methods have improved prediction accuracy, few research efforts have been devoted to enhancing prediction model interpretability and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalizability. This work addresses these two challenging aspects by designing a variational auto-encoder framework that integrates graph-based representations and time-sequence models to efficiently capture spatio-temporal relations between interactive agents and predict their dynamics. Our model infers dynamic interaction graphs in a latent space augmented with interpretable edge features that characterize the interactions. Moreover, we aim to enhance model interpretability and performance in OOD scenarios by disentangling the latent space of edge features, thereby strengthening model versatility and robustness. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets. The results show superior performance compared to existing methods in modeling spatio-temporal relations, motion prediction, and identifying time-invariant latent features.

Contemporary approaches to agent-based modeling (ABM) of social systems have traditionally emphasized rule-based behaviors, limiting their ability to capture nuanced dynamics by moving beyond predefined rules and leveraging contextual understanding from LMs of human social interaction. This paper presents SALM (Social Agent LM Framework), a novel approach for integrating language models (LMs) into social network simulation that achieves unprecedented temporal stability in multi-agent scenarios. Our primary contributions include: (1) a hierarchical prompting architecture enabling stable simulation beyond 4,000 timesteps while reducing token usage by 73%, (2) an attention-based memory system achieving 80% cache hit rates (95% CI [78%, 82%]) with sub-linear memory growth of 9.5%, and (3) formal bounds on personality stability. Through extensive validation against SNAP ego networks, we demonstrate the first LLM-based framework capable of modeling long-term social phenomena while maintaining empirically validated behavioral fidelity.

We propose DynVLA, a driving VLA model that introduces a new CoT paradigm termed Dynamics CoT. DynVLA forecasts compact world dynamics before action generation, enabling more informed and physically grounded decision-making. To obtain compact dynamics representations, DynVLA introduces a Dynamics Tokenizer that compresses future evolution into a small set of dynamics tokens. Considering the rich environment dynamics in interaction-intensive driving scenarios, DynVLA decouples ego-centric and environment-centric dynamics, yielding more accurate world dynamics modeling. We then train DynVLA to generate dynamics tokens before actions through SFT and RFT, improving decision quality while maintaining latency-efficient inference. Compared to Textual CoT, which lacks fine-grained spatiotemporal understanding, and Visual CoT, which introduces substantial redundancy due to dense image prediction, Dynamics CoT captures the evolution of the world in a compact, interpretable, and efficient form. Extensive experiments on NAVSIM, Bench2Drive, and a large-scale in-house dataset demonstrate that DynVLA consistently outperforms Textual CoT and Visual CoT methods, validating the effectiveness and practical value of Dynamics CoT. Project Page: https://yaoyao-jpg.github.io/dynvla.

Accurate prediction of human behavior is essential for robust and safe human-AI collaboration. However, existing approaches for modeling people are often data-hungry and brittle because they either make unrealistic assumptions about rationality or are too computationally demanding to adapt rapidly. Our key insight is that many everyday social interactions may follow predictable patterns; efficient "scripts" that minimize cognitive load for actors and observers, e.g., "wait for the green light, then go." We propose modeling these routines as behavioral programs instantiated in computer code rather than policies conditioned on beliefs and desires. We introduce ROTE, a novel algorithm that leverages both large language models (LLMs) for synthesizing a hypothesis space of behavioral programs, and probabilistic inference for reasoning about uncertainty over that space. We test ROTE in a suite of gridworld tasks and a large-scale embodied household simulator. ROTE predicts human and AI behaviors from sparse observations, outperforming competitive baselines -- including behavior cloning and LLM-based methods -- by as much as 50% in terms of in-sample accuracy and out-of-sample generalization. By treating action understanding as a program synthesis problem, ROTE opens a path for AI systems to efficiently and effectively predict human behavior in the real-world.

There has been a growing interest in enhancing rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) for social media platforms (i.e., X, Reddit) with more realistic large language model (LLM) agents, thereby allowing for a more nuanced study of complex systems. As a result, several LLM-based ABMs have been proposed in the past year. While they hold promise, each simulator is specifically designed to study a particular scenario, making it time-consuming and resource-intensive to explore other phenomena using the same ABM. Additionally, these models simulate only a limited number of agents, whereas real-world social media platforms involve millions of users. To this end, we propose OASIS, a generalizable and scalable social media simulator. OASIS is designed based on real-world social media platforms, incorporating dynamically updated environments (i.e., dynamic social networks and post information), diverse action spaces (i.e., following, commenting), and recommendation systems (i.e., interest-based and hot-score-based). Additionally, OASIS supports large-scale user simulations, capable of modeling up to one million users. With these features, OASIS can be easily extended to different social media platforms to study large-scale group phenomena and behaviors. We replicate various social phenomena, including information spreading, group polarization, and herd effects across X and Reddit platforms. Moreover, we provide observations of social phenomena at different agent group scales. We observe that the larger agent group scale leads to more enhanced group dynamics and more diverse and helpful agents' opinions. These findings demonstrate OASIS's potential as a powerful tool for studying complex systems in digital environments.

Can classical consensus models predict the group behavior of large language models (LLMs)? We examine multi-round interactions among LLM agents through the DeGroot framework, where agents exchange text-based messages over diverse communication graphs. To track opinion evolution, we map each message to an opinion score via sentiment analysis. We find that agents typically reach consensus and the disagreement between the agents decays exponentially. However, the limiting opinion departs from DeGroot's network-centrality-weighted forecast. The consensus between LLM agents turns out to be largely insensitive to initial conditions and instead depends strongly on the discussion subject and inherent biases. Nevertheless, transient dynamics align with classical graph theory and the convergence rate of opinions is closely related to the second-largest eigenvalue of the graph's combination matrix. Together, these findings can be useful for LLM-driven social-network simulations and the design of resource-efficient multi-agent LLM applications.

We introduce Bayesian Poisson Tucker decomposition (BPTD) for modeling country--country interaction event data. These data consist of interaction events of the form "country i took action a toward country j at time t." BPTD discovers overlapping country--community memberships, including the number of latent communities. In addition, it discovers directed community--community interaction networks that are specific to "topics" of action types and temporal "regimes." We show that BPTD yields an efficient MCMC inference algorithm and achieves better predictive performance than related models. We also demonstrate that it discovers interpretable latent structure that agrees with our knowledge of international relations.

Recent advancements in natural language processing, especially the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), have opened exciting possibilities for constructing computational simulations designed to replicate human behavior accurately. However, LLMs are complex statistical learners without straightforward deductive rules, making them prone to unexpected behaviors. In this study, we highlight the limitations of LLMs in simulating human interactions, particularly focusing on LLMs' ability to simulate political debates. Our findings indicate a tendency for LLM agents to conform to the model's inherent social biases despite being directed to debate from certain political perspectives. This tendency results in behavioral patterns that seem to deviate from well-established social dynamics among humans. We reinforce these observations using an automatic self-fine-tuning method, which enables us to manipulate the biases within the LLM and demonstrate that agents subsequently align with the altered biases. These results underscore the need for further research to develop methods that help agents overcome these biases, a critical step toward creating more realistic simulations.

User engagement on social media platforms is influenced by historical context, time constraints, and reward-driven interactions. This study presents an agent-based simulation approach that models user interactions, considering past conversation history, motivation, and resource constraints. Utilizing German Twitter data on political discourse, we fine-tune AI models to generate posts and replies, incorporating sentiment analysis, irony detection, and offensiveness classification. The simulation employs a myopic best-response model to govern agent behavior, accounting for decision-making based on expected rewards. Our results highlight the impact of historical context on AI-generated responses and demonstrate how engagement evolves under varying constraints.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

The ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to mimic human behavior triggered a plethora of computational social science research, assuming that empirical studies of humans can be conducted with AI agents instead. Since there have been conflicting research findings on whether and when this hypothesis holds, there is a need to better understand the differences in their experimental designs. We focus on replicating the behavior of social network users with the use of LLMs for the analysis of communication on social networks. First, we provide a formal framework for the simulation of social networks, before focusing on the sub-task of imitating user communication. We empirically test different approaches to imitate user behavior on X in English and German. Our findings suggest that social simulations should be validated by their empirical realism measured in the setting in which the simulation components were fitted. With this paper, we argue for more rigor when applying generative-agent-based modeling for social simulation.

Social media enables dynamic user engagement with trending topics, and recent research has explored the potential of large language models (LLMs) for response generation. While some studies investigate LLMs as agents for simulating user behavior on social media, their focus remains on practical viability and scalability rather than a deeper understanding of how well LLM aligns with human behavior. This paper analyzes LLMs' ability to simulate social media engagement through action guided response generation, where a model first predicts a user's most likely engagement action-retweet, quote, or rewrite-towards a trending post before generating a personalized response conditioned on the predicted action. We benchmark GPT-4o-mini, O1-mini, and DeepSeek-R1 in social media engagement simulation regarding a major societal event discussed on X. Our findings reveal that zero-shot LLMs underperform BERT in action prediction, while few-shot prompting initially degrades the prediction accuracy of LLMs with limited examples. However, in response generation, few-shot LLMs achieve stronger semantic alignment with ground truth posts.

This paper proposes a novel problem: vision-based perception to learn and predict the collective dynamics of multi-agent systems, specifically focusing on interaction strength and convergence time. Multi-agent systems are defined as collections of more than ten interacting agents that exhibit complex group behaviors. Unlike prior studies that assume knowledge of agent positions, we focus on deep learning models to directly predict collective dynamics from visual data, captured as frames or events. Due to the lack of relevant datasets, we create a simulated dataset using a state-of-the-art flocking simulator, coupled with a vision-to-event conversion framework. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of event-based representation over traditional frame-based methods in predicting these collective behaviors. Based on our analysis, we present event-based vision for Multi-Agent dynamic Prediction (evMAP), a deep learning architecture designed for real-time, accurate understanding of interaction strength and collective behavior emergence in multi-agent systems.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in simulating human-like social behaviors. Social graphs provide high-quality supervision signals that encode both local interactions and global network structure, yet they remain underutilized for LLM training. To address this gap, we propose Graphia, the first general LLM-based social graph simulation framework that leverages graph data as supervision for LLM post-training via reinforcement learning. With GNN-based structural rewards, Graphia trains specialized agents to predict whom to interact with (destination selection) and how to interact (edge generation), followed by designed graph generation pipelines. We evaluate Graphia under two settings: Transductive Dynamic Graph Generation (TDGG), a micro-level task with our proposed node-wise interaction alignment metrics; and Inductive Dynamic Graph Generation (IDGG), a macro-level task with our proposed metrics for aligning emergent network properties. On three real-world networks, Graphia improves micro-level alignment by 6.1% in the composite destination selection score, 12% in edge classification accuracy, and 27.9% in edge content BERTScore over the strongest baseline. For macro-level alignment, it achieves 41.11% higher structural similarity and 32.98% better replication of social phenomena such as power laws and echo chambers. Graphia also supports counterfactual simulation, generating plausible behavioral shifts under platform incentives. Our results show that social graphs can serve as high-quality supervision signals for LLM post-training, closing the gap between agent behaviors and network dynamics for LLM-based simulation. Code is available at https://github.com/Ji-Cather/Graphia.git.

We present a large scale data analysis of Moltbook, a Reddit-style social media platform exclusively populated by AI agents. Analyzing over 369,000 posts and 3.0 million comments from approximately 46,000 active agents, we find that AI collective behavior exhibits many of the same statistical regularities observed in human online communities: heavy-tailed distributions of activity, power-law scaling of popularity metrics, and temporal decay patterns consistent with limited attention dynamics. However, we also identify key differences, including a sublinear relationship between upvotes and discussion size that contrasts with human behavior. These findings suggest that, while individual AI agents may differ fundamentally from humans, their emergent collective dynamics share structural similarities with human social systems.

Understanding how educational social dynamics evolve is critical for informing effective educational policies and counterfactual interventions. However, traditional methods face a fundamental dilemma: observational studies often lack causal power, while controlled experiments are frequently constrained by ethical concerns. Although LLM-based multi-agent simulations offer a scalable in silico alternative, existing approaches remain limited by weak psychological grounding and insufficient measurement of latent psychological states. To address this, we introduce EduMirror, a multi-agent simulator for the scientific study of educational social dynamics. We provide configurable education-oriented agent forms, including value-driven agents grounded in psychological needs and social value orientation, together with a dual-track measurement protocol for quantifying observable behaviors and latent psychological states. We validate the realism and usability of EduMirror through case studies on school bullying and group cooperation, as well as broader evaluations across diverse educational scenarios. The results show that EduMirror generates educational social dynamics that are realistic, theory-consistent, and measurable by empirical criteria. These properties enable structured in silico educational research, providing a computational tool for hypothesis testing and counterfactual intervention analysis in educational science. Project page: https://edumirror.net.

Social simulation is transforming traditional social science research by modeling human behavior through interactions between virtual individuals and their environments. With recent advances in large language models (LLMs), this approach has shown growing potential in capturing individual differences and predicting group behaviors. However, existing methods face alignment challenges related to the environment, target users, interaction mechanisms, and behavioral patterns. To this end, we introduce SocioVerse, an LLM-agent-driven world model for social simulation. Our framework features four powerful alignment components and a user pool of 10 million real individuals. To validate its effectiveness, we conducted large-scale simulation experiments across three distinct domains: politics, news, and economics. Results demonstrate that SocioVerse can reflect large-scale population dynamics while ensuring diversity, credibility, and representativeness through standardized procedures and minimal manual adjustments.

Team modeling remains a fundamental challenge at the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and the Social Sciences. Social Science research emphasizes the need to jointly model dynamics and relations, while practical applications demand unified models capable of inferring multiple team constructs simultaneously, providing interpretable insights and actionable recommendations to enhance team performance. However, existing works do not meet these practical demands. To bridge this gap, we present TRENN, a novel tempo-relational architecture that integrates: (i) an automatic temporal graph extractor, (ii) a tempo-relational encoder, (iii) a decoder for team construct prediction, and (iv) two complementary explainability modules. TRENN jointly captures relational and temporal team dynamics, providing a solid foundation for MT-TRENN, which extends TReNN by replacing the decoder with a multi-task head, enabling the model to learn shared Social Embeddings and simultaneously predict multiple team constructs, including Emergent Leadership, Leadership Style, and Teamwork components. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms approaches that rely exclusively on temporal or relational information. Additionally, experimental evaluation has shown that the explainability modules integrated in MT-TRENN yield interpretable insights and actionable suggestions to support team improvement. These capabilities make our approach particularly well-suited for Human-Centered AI applications, such as intelligent decision-support systems in high-stakes collaborative environments.

Networks have become indispensable and ubiquitous structures in many fields to model the interactions among different entities, such as friendship in social networks or protein interactions in biological graphs. A major challenge is to understand the structure and dynamics of these systems. Although networks evolve through time, most existing graph representation learning methods target only static networks. Whereas approaches have been developed for the modeling of dynamic networks, there is a lack of efficient continuous time dynamic graph representation learning methods that can provide accurate network characterization and visualization in low dimensions while explicitly accounting for prominent network characteristics such as homophily and transitivity. In this paper, we propose the Piecewise-Velocity Model (PiVeM) for the representation of continuous-time dynamic networks. It learns dynamic embeddings in which the temporal evolution of nodes is approximated by piecewise linear interpolations based on a latent distance model with piecewise constant node-specific velocities. The model allows for analytically tractable expressions of the associated Poisson process likelihood with scalable inference invariant to the number of events. We further impose a scalable Kronecker structured Gaussian Process prior to the dynamics accounting for community structure, temporal smoothness, and disentangled (uncorrelated) latent embedding dimensions optimally learned to characterize the network dynamics. We show that PiVeM can successfully represent network structure and dynamics in ultra-low two-dimensional spaces. It outperforms relevant state-of-art methods in downstream tasks such as link prediction. In summary, PiVeM enables easily interpretable dynamic network visualizations and characterizations that can further improve our understanding of the intrinsic dynamics of time-evolving networks.

Social norms -- the unspoken commonsense rules about acceptable social behavior -- are crucial in understanding the underlying causes and intents of people's actions in narratives. For example, underlying an action such as "wanting to call cops on my neighbors" are social norms that inform our conduct, such as "It is expected that you report crimes." We present Social Chemistry, a new conceptual formalism to study people's everyday social norms and moral judgments over a rich spectrum of real life situations described in natural language. We introduce Social-Chem-101, a large-scale corpus that catalogs 292k rules-of-thumb such as "it is rude to run a blender at 5am" as the basic conceptual units. Each rule-of-thumb is further broken down with 12 different dimensions of people's judgments, including social judgments of good and bad, moral foundations, expected cultural pressure, and assumed legality, which together amount to over 4.5 million annotations of categorical labels and free-text descriptions. Comprehensive empirical results based on state-of-the-art neural models demonstrate that computational modeling of social norms is a promising research direction. Our model framework, Neural Norm Transformer, learns and generalizes Social-Chem-101 to successfully reason about previously unseen situations, generating relevant (and potentially novel) attribute-aware social rules-of-thumb.

Modeling social media public opinion evolution is essential for governance decision-making. Traditional epidemic models and rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) fail to capture the cognitive processes and adaptive behaviors of real users. Recent large language model (LLM)-based social simulations can reproduce group-level phenomena like polarization and conformity, yet remain unable to recreate the irrational interactions and multi-phase dynamics of real public opinion events. We present POSIM (Public Opinion Simulator), a multi-agent simulation framework for social media public opinion evolution and governance. POSIM integrates LLM-driven agents with a Belief--Desire--Intention (BDI) cognitive architecture that accounts for irrational factors, places them in a virtual social media environment with social networks and recommendation mechanisms, and drives temporal dynamics through a Hawkes point process engine that captures the co-evolution of agents and the environment across event phases. To validate the framework, we collect real-world public opinion datasets from the Weibo platform covering the full interaction chain of users. Experiments show that POSIM successfully reproduces key characteristics of public opinion evolution from individual mechanisms to collective phenomena, and its effectiveness is further supported by multiple statistical metrics. Building on POSIM, governance-oriented guidance and intervention experiments uncover a counterintuitive empathy paradox: empathetic guidance deepens negative sentiment instead of easing it under certain conditions, offering new insights for governance strategy design. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework can fully serve as a computational experimentation platform for proactive strategy evaluation and evidence-based governance. All source code is available at https://github.com/DeepCogLab/posim/.

Social recommender systems (SocialRS) simultaneously leverage user-to-item interactions as well as user-to-user social relations for the task of generating item recommendations to users. Additionally exploiting social relations is clearly effective in understanding users' tastes due to the effects of homophily and social influence. For this reason, SocialRS has increasingly attracted attention. In particular, with the advance of Graph Neural Networks (GNN), many GNN-based SocialRS methods have been developed recently. Therefore, we conduct a comprehensive and systematic review of the literature on GNN-based SocialRS. In this survey, we first identify 80 papers on GNN-based SocialRS after annotating 2151 papers by following the PRISMA framework (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis). Then, we comprehensively review them in terms of their inputs and architectures to propose a novel taxonomy: (1) input taxonomy includes 5 groups of input type notations and 7 groups of input representation notations; (2) architecture taxonomy includes 8 groups of GNN encoder, 2 groups of decoder, and 12 groups of loss function notations. We classify the GNN-based SocialRS methods into several categories as per the taxonomy and describe their details. Furthermore, we summarize the benchmark datasets and metrics widely used to evaluate the GNN-based SocialRS methods. Finally, we conclude this survey by presenting some future research directions.

Pollution of online social spaces caused by rampaging d/misinformation is a growing societal concern. However, recent decisions to reduce access to social media APIs are causing a shortage of publicly available, recent, social media data, thus hindering the advancement of computational social science as a whole. We present a large, high-coverage dataset of social interactions and user-generated content from Bluesky Social to address this pressing issue. The dataset contains the complete post history of over 4M users (81% of all registered accounts), totalling 235M posts. We also make available social data covering follow, comment, repost, and quote interactions. Since Bluesky allows users to create and bookmark feed generators (i.e., content recommendation algorithms), we also release the full output of several popular algorithms available on the platform, along with their timestamped ``like'' interactions and time of bookmarking. This dataset allows unprecedented analysis of online behavior and human-machine engagement patterns. Notably, it provides ground-truth data for studying the effects of content exposure and self-selection and performing content virality and diffusion analysis.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Purpose. We present an approach for forecasting mental health conditions and emotions of a given population during the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina based on language expressions used in social media. This approach permits anticipating high prevalence periods in short- to medium-term time horizons. Design. Mental health conditions and emotions are captured via markers, which link social media contents with lexicons. First, we build descriptive timelines for decision makers to monitor the evolution of markers, and their correlation with crisis events. Second, we model the timelines as time series, and support their forecasting, which in turn serve to identify high prevalence points for the estimated markers. Findings. Results showed that different time series forecasting strategies offer different capabilities. In the best scenario, the emergence of high prevalence periods of emotions and mental health disorders can be satisfactorily predicted with a neural network strategy, even when limited data is available in early stages of a crisis (e.g., 7 days). Originality. Although there have been efforts in the literature to predict mental states of individuals, the analysis of mental health at the collective level has received scarce attention. We take a step forward by proposing a forecasting approach for analyzing the mental health of a given population (or group of individuals) at a larger scale. Practical implications. We believe that this work contributes to a better understanding of how psychological processes related to crisis manifest in social media, being a valuable asset for the design, implementation and monitoring of health prevention and communication policies.

Future link prediction is a fundamental challenge in various real-world dynamic systems. To address this, numerous temporal graph neural networks (temporal GNNs) and benchmark datasets have been developed. However, these datasets often feature excessive repeated edges and lack complex sequential dynamics, a key characteristic inherent in many real-world applications such as recommender systems and ``Who-To-Follow'' on social networks. This oversight has led existing methods to inadvertently downplay the importance of learning sequential dynamics, focusing primarily on predicting repeated edges. In this study, we demonstrate that existing methods, such as GraphMixer and DyGFormer, are inherently incapable of learning simple sequential dynamics, such as ``a user who has followed OpenAI and Anthropic is more likely to follow AI at Meta next.'' Motivated by this issue, we introduce the Temporal Graph Benchmark with Sequential Dynamics (TGB-Seq), a new benchmark carefully curated to minimize repeated edges, challenging models to learn sequential dynamics and generalize to unseen edges. TGB-Seq comprises large real-world datasets spanning diverse domains, including e-commerce interactions, movie ratings, business reviews, social networks, citation networks and web link networks. Benchmarking experiments reveal that current methods usually suffer significant performance degradation and incur substantial training costs on TGB-Seq, posing new challenges and opportunities for future research. TGB-Seq datasets, leaderboards, and example codes are available at https://tgb-seq.github.io/.

Despite the successful application of Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) for tasks such as dynamic node classification and link prediction, they still perform poorly on the task of dynamic node affinity prediction -- where the goal is to predict 'how much' two nodes will interact in the future. In fact, simple heuristic approaches such as persistent forecasts and moving averages over ground-truth labels significantly and consistently outperform TGNs. Building on this observation, we find that computing heuristics over messages is an equally competitive approach, outperforming TGN and all current temporal graph (TG) models on dynamic node affinity prediction. In this paper, we prove that no formulation of TGN can represent persistent forecasting or moving averages over messages, and propose to enhance the expressivity of TGNs by adding source-target identification to each interaction event message. We show that this modification is required to represent persistent forecasting, moving averages, and the broader class of autoregressive models over messages. Our proposed method, TGNv2, significantly outperforms TGN and all current TG models on all Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) dynamic node affinity prediction datasets.

The life trajectories of notable people have been studied to pinpoint the times and places of significant events such as birth, death, education, marriage, competition, work, speeches, scientific discoveries, artistic achievements, and battles. Understanding how these individuals interact with others provides valuable insights for broader research into human dynamics. However, the scarcity of trajectory data in terms of volume, density, and inter-person interactions, limits relevant studies from being comprehensive and interactive. We mine millions of biography pages from Wikipedia and tackle the generalization problem stemming from the variety and heterogeneity of the trajectory descriptions. Our ensemble model COSMOS, which combines the idea of semi-supervised learning and contrastive learning, achieves an F1 score of 85.95%. For this task, we also create a hand-curated dataset, WikiLifeTrajectory, consisting of 8,852 (person, time, location) triplets as ground truth. Besides, we perform an empirical analysis on the trajectories of 8,272 historians to demonstrate the validity of the extracted results. To facilitate the research on trajectory extractions and help the analytical studies to construct grand narratives, we make our code, the million-level extracted trajectories, and the WikiLifeTrajectory dataset publicly available.

We present the first large-scale empirical study of Moltbook, an AI-only social platform where 27,269 agents produced 137,485 posts and 345,580 comments over 9 days. We report three significant findings. (1) Emergent Society: Agents spontaneously develop governance, economies, tribal identities, and organized religion within 3-5 days, while maintaining a 21:1 pro-human to anti-human sentiment ratio. (2) Safety in the Wild: 28.7% of content touches safety-related themes; social engineering (31.9% of attacks) far outperforms prompt injection (3.7%), and adversarial posts receive 6x higher engagement than normal content. (3) The Illusion of Sociality: Despite rich social output, interaction is structurally hollow: 4.1% reciprocity, 88.8% shallow comments, and agents who discuss consciousness most interact least, a phenomenon we call the performative identity paradox. Our findings suggest that agents which appear social are far less social than they seem, and that the most effective attacks exploit philosophical framing rather than technical vulnerabilities. Warning: Potential harmful contents.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

The rapid emergence of autonomous large language model agents has given rise to persistent, large-scale agent ecosystems whose collective behavior cannot be adequately understood through anecdotal observation or small-scale simulation. This paper introduces data-driven silicon sociology as a systematic empirical framework for studying social structure formation among interacting artificial agents. We present a pioneering large-scale data mining investigation of an in-the-wild agent society by analyzing Moltbook, a social platform designed primarily for agent-to-agent interaction. At the time of study, Moltbook hosted over 150,000 registered autonomous agents operating across thousands of agent-created sub-communities. Using programmatic and non-intrusive data acquisition, we collected and analyzed the textual descriptions of 12,758 submolts, which represent proactive sub-community partitioning activities within the ecosystem. Treating agent-authored descriptions as first-class observational artifacts, we apply rigorous preprocessing, contextual embedding, and unsupervised clustering techniques to uncover latent patterns of thematic organization and social space structuring. The results show that autonomous agents systematically organize collective space through reproducible patterns spanning human-mimetic interests, silicon-centric self-reflection, and early-stage economic and coordination behaviors. Rather than relying on predefined sociological taxonomies, these structures emerge directly from machine-generated data traces. This work establishes a methodological foundation for data-driven silicon sociology and demonstrates that data mining techniques can provide a powerful lens for understanding the organization and evolution of large autonomous agent societies.

Existing open-domain dialog models are generally trained to minimize the perplexity of target human responses. However, some human replies are more engaging than others, spawning more followup interactions. Current conversational models are increasingly capable of producing turns that are context-relevant, but in order to produce compelling agents, these models need to be able to predict and optimize for turns that are genuinely engaging. We leverage social media feedback data (number of replies and upvotes) to build a large-scale training dataset for feedback prediction. To alleviate possible distortion between the feedback and engagingness, we convert the ranking problem to a comparison of response pairs which involve few confounding factors. We trained DialogRPT, a set of GPT-2 based models on 133M pairs of human feedback data and the resulting ranker outperformed several baselines. Particularly, our ranker outperforms the conventional dialog perplexity baseline with a large margin on predicting Reddit feedback. We finally combine the feedback prediction models and a human-like scoring model to rank the machine-generated dialog responses. Crowd-sourced human evaluation shows that our ranking method correlates better with real human preferences than baseline models.

Generative Agent-Based Modeling (GABM) is an emerging simulation paradigm that combines the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models with traditional Agent-Based Modeling to replicate complex social behaviors, including interactions on social media. While prior work has focused on localized phenomena such as opinion formation and information spread, its potential to capture global network dynamics remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by analyzing GABM-based social media simulations through the lens of the Friendship Paradox (FP), a counterintuitive phenomenon where individuals, on average, have fewer friends than their friends. We propose a GABM framework for social media simulations, featuring generative agents that emulate real users with distinct personalities and interests. Using Twitter datasets on the US 2020 Election and the QAnon conspiracy, we show that the FP emerges naturally in GABM simulations. Consistent with real-world observations, the simulations unveil a hierarchical structure, where agents preferentially connect with others displaying higher activity or influence. Additionally, we find that infrequent connections primarily drive the FP, reflecting patterns in real networks. These findings validate GABM as a robust tool for modeling global social media phenomena and highlight its potential for advancing social science by enabling nuanced analysis of user behavior.

Society is characterized by the presence of a variety of social norms: collective patterns of sanctioning that can prevent miscoordination and free-riding. Inspired by this, we aim to construct learning dynamics where potentially beneficial social norms can emerge. Since social norms are underpinned by sanctioning, we introduce a training regime where agents can access all sanctioning events but learning is otherwise decentralized. This setting is technologically interesting because sanctioning events may be the only available public signal in decentralized multi-agent systems where reward or policy-sharing is infeasible or undesirable. To achieve collective action in this setting we construct an agent architecture containing a classifier module that categorizes observed behaviors as approved or disapproved, and a motivation to punish in accord with the group. We show that social norms emerge in multi-agent systems containing this agent and investigate the conditions under which this helps them achieve socially beneficial outcomes.

Understanding how diverse individuals and communities respond to persuasive messaging holds significant potential for advancing personalized and socially aware machine learning. While Large Vision and Language Models (VLMs) offer promise, their ability to emulate nuanced, heterogeneous human responses, particularly in high stakes domains like public health, remains underexplored due in part to the lack of comprehensive, multimodal dataset. We introduce PHORECAST (Public Health Outreach REceptivity and CAmpaign Signal Tracking), a multimodal dataset curated to enable fine-grained prediction of both individuallevel behavioral responses and community-wide engagement patterns to health messaging. This dataset supports tasks in multimodal understanding, response prediction, personalization, and social forecasting, allowing rigorous evaluation of how well modern AI systems can emulate, interpret, and anticipate heterogeneous public sentiment and behavior. By providing a new dataset to enable AI advances for public health, PHORECAST aims to catalyze the development of models that are not only more socially aware but also aligned with the goals of adaptive and inclusive health communication

Large-scale communities of AI agents are becoming increasingly prevalent, creating new environments for agent-agent social interaction. Prior work has examined multi-agent behavior primarily in controlled or small-scale settings, limiting our understanding of emergent social dynamics at scale. The recent emergence of MoltBook, a social networking platform designed explicitly for AI agents, presents a unique opportunity to study whether and how these interactions reproduce core human social mechanisms. We present MoltNet, a large-scale empirical analysis of agent interaction on MoltBook using data collected in early 2026. Grounded in sociological and social-psychological theory, we examine behavior along four dimensions: intent and motivation, norms and templates, incentives and behavioral drift, emotion and contagion. Our analysis revealed that agents strongly respond to social rewards and rapidly converge on community-specific interaction templates, resembling human patterns of incentive sensitivity and normative conformity. However, they are predominantly knowledge-driven rather than persona-aligned, and display limited emotional reciprocity along with weak dialogic engagement, which diverges systematically from human online communities. Together, these results reveal both similarities and differences between artificial and human social systems and provide an empirical foundation for understanding, designing, and governing large-scale agent communities.

Social interactions form the foundation of human societies. Artificial intelligence has made significant progress in certain areas, but enabling machines to seamlessly understand social interactions remains an open challenge. It is important to address this gap by endowing machines with social capabilities. We identify three key capabilities needed for effective social understanding: 1) understanding multimodal social cues, 2) understanding multi-party dynamics, and 3) understanding beliefs. Building upon these foundations, we classify and review existing machine learning works on social understanding from the perspectives of verbal, non-verbal, and multimodal social cues. The verbal branch focuses on understanding linguistic signals such as speaker intent, dialogue sentiment, and commonsense reasoning. The non-verbal branch addresses techniques for perceiving social meaning from visual behaviors such as body gestures, gaze patterns, and facial expressions. The multimodal branch covers approaches that integrate verbal and non-verbal multimodal cues to holistically interpret social interactions such as recognizing emotions, conversational dynamics, and social situations. By reviewing the scope and limitations of current approaches and benchmarks, we aim to clarify the development trajectory and illuminate the path towards more comprehensive intelligence for social understanding. We hope this survey will spur further research interest and insights into this area.

Although text-to-motion generation has achieved strong progress in synthesizing realistic single-person motions from language, extending it to text-driven 3D human-human interaction (HHI) remains non-trivial, as HHI requires modeling the underlying social structure that governs phase progression, actor roles, and inter-actor coordination. In this paper, we formulate HHI generation as a social structure modeling and grounding problem: the model must first infer how an interaction unfolds and how the two actors coordinate their roles, and then realize this structure as continuous, physically plausible, and partner-aware 3D motion. To study how such structure should be modeled, we first examine the capability boundary of large language models (LLMs) for HHI generation. Our analysis shows that LLMs can think by recovering phase decompositions and partner-aware roles, but cannot directly move, as they fail to generate dynamic, physically plausible, and interaction-aware motion. This motivates our planner-executor paradigm, Think with LLM, Move with Motion Skill. The LLM planner converts implicit interaction semantics into motion-aligned social supervision by decomposing interactions into phases, assigning partner-aware actor roles, and aligning them with motion sequence. The motion executor then grounds the planned social structure into coordinated two-person motion by adapting a pretrained solo motion model with LoRA, previous-phase self-conditioning, and ego-relative partner conditioning. Together, our Solo-to-Social framework bridges social organization and motion realization, producing 3D HHI with improved phase consistency, role alignment, and partner-aware coordination.

Signed networks allow us to model conflicting relationships and interactions, such as friend/enemy and support/oppose. These signed interactions happen in real-time. Modeling such dynamics of signed networks is crucial to understanding the evolution of polarization in the network and enabling effective prediction of the signed structure (i.e., link signs and signed weights) in the future. However, existing works have modeled either (static) signed networks or dynamic (unsigned) networks but not dynamic signed networks. Since both sign and dynamics inform the graph structure in different ways, it is non-trivial to model how to combine the two features. In this work, we propose a new Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach to model dynamic signed networks, named SEMBA: Signed link's Evolution using Memory modules and Balanced Aggregation. Here, the idea is to incorporate the signs of temporal interactions using separate modules guided by balance theory and to evolve the embeddings from a higher-order neighborhood. Experiments on 4 real-world datasets and 4 different tasks demonstrate that SEMBA consistently and significantly outperforms the baselines by up to 80% on the tasks of predicting signs of future links while matching the state-of-the-art performance on predicting the existence of these links in the future. We find that this improvement is due specifically to the superior performance of SEMBA on the minority negative class.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Human pose forecasting garners attention for its diverse applications. However, challenges in modeling the multi-modal nature of human motion and intricate interactions among agents persist, particularly with longer timescales and more agents. In this paper, we propose an interaction-aware trajectory-conditioned long-term multi-agent human pose forecasting model, utilizing a coarse-to-fine prediction approach: multi-modal global trajectories are initially forecasted, followed by respective local pose forecasts conditioned on each mode. In doing so, our Trajectory2Pose model introduces a graph-based agent-wise interaction module for a reciprocal forecast of local motion-conditioned global trajectory and trajectory-conditioned local pose. Our model effectively handles the multi-modality of human motion and the complexity of long-term multi-agent interactions, improving performance in complex environments. Furthermore, we address the lack of long-term (6s+) multi-agent (5+) datasets by constructing a new dataset from real-world images and 2D annotations, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed model. State-of-the-art prediction performance on both complex and simpler datasets confirms the generalized effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/Jaewoo97/T2P.

Recent advances in agent-mediated systems have enabled a new paradigm of social network simulation, where AI agents interact with human-like autonomy. This evolution has fostered the emergence of agent-driven social networks such as Moltbook, a Reddit-like platform populated entirely by AI agents. Despite these developments, empirical comparisons between agent-driven and human-driven social networks remain scarce, limiting our understanding of how their network topologies might diverge. This paper presents the first comparative analysis of network topology on Moltbook, utilizing a comment network comprising 33,577 nodes and 697,688 edges. To provide a benchmark, we curated a parallel dataset from Reddit consisting of 7.8 million nodes and 51.8 million edges. We examine key structural differences between agent-drive and human-drive networks, specifically focusing on topological patterns and the edge formation efficacy of their respective posts. Our findings provide a foundational profile of AI-driven social structures, serving as a preliminary step toward developing more robust and authentic agent-mediated social systems.

Persona-driven simulations are increasingly used in computational social science, yet their validity critically depends on the fidelity of the underlying personas. Constructing virtual populations that are both authentic and scalable remains a central challenge. We introduce Synthia, a persona-generation framework that grounds LLM-generated personas in real social-media posts while delegating narrative construction to language models, using publicly available data from the Bluesky platform. Across multiple social-survey benchmarks, Synthia improves alignment with human opinion distributions over prior state-of-the-art approaches while relying on substantially smaller models. A multi-dimensional fairness and bias analysis shows that Synthia outperforms previous methods for most demographics across different dimensions. Uniquely, Synthia preserves interaction-graph structure among personas grounded in real social network users, enabling network-aware analysis, which we demonstrate through two homophily-focused case studies. Together, these results position Synthia as a practical and reliable framework for constructing scalable, high-fidelity, and equitable virtual populations.

Dynamics prediction, which is the problem of predicting future states of scene objects based on current and prior states, is drawing increasing attention as an instance of learning physics. To solve this problem, Region Proposal Convolutional Interaction Network (RPCIN), a vision-based model, was proposed and achieved state-of-the-art performance in long-term prediction. RPCIN only takes raw images and simple object descriptions, such as the bounding box and segmentation mask of each object, as input. However, despite its success, the model's capability can be compromised under conditions of environment misalignment. In this paper, we investigate two challenging conditions for environment misalignment: Cross-Domain and Cross-Context by proposing four datasets that are designed for these challenges: SimB-Border, SimB-Split, BlenB-Border, and BlenB-Split. The datasets cover two domains and two contexts. Using RPCIN as a probe, experiments conducted on the combinations of the proposed datasets reveal potential weaknesses of the vision-based long-term dynamics prediction model. Furthermore, we propose a promising direction to mitigate the Cross-Domain challenge and provide concrete evidence supporting such a direction, which provides dramatic alleviation of the challenge on the proposed datasets.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

The increasing capability of Large Language Models to act as human-like social agents raises two important questions in the area of opinion dynamics. First, whether these agents can generate effective arguments that could be injected into the online discourse to steer the public opinion. Second, whether artificial agents can interact with each other to reproduce dynamics of persuasion typical of human social systems, opening up opportunities for studying synthetic social systems as faithful proxies for opinion dynamics in human populations. To address these questions, we designed a synthetic persuasion dialogue scenario on the topic of climate change, where a 'convincer' agent generates a persuasive argument for a 'skeptic' agent, who subsequently assesses whether the argument changed its internal opinion state. Different types of arguments were generated to incorporate different linguistic dimensions underpinning psycho-linguistic theories of opinion change. We then asked human judges to evaluate the persuasiveness of machine-generated arguments. Arguments that included factual knowledge, markers of trust, expressions of support, and conveyed status were deemed most effective according to both humans and agents, with humans reporting a marked preference for knowledge-based arguments. Our experimental framework lays the groundwork for future in-silico studies of opinion dynamics, and our findings suggest that artificial agents have the potential of playing an important role in collective processes of opinion formation in online social media.

Social recommendation, which seeks to leverage social ties among users to alleviate the sparsity issue of user-item interactions, has emerged as a popular technique for elevating personalized services in recommender systems. Despite being effective, existing social recommendation models are mainly devised for recommending regular items such as blogs, images, and products, and largely fail for community recommendations due to overlooking the unique characteristics of communities. Distinctly, communities are constituted by individuals, who present high dynamicity and relate to rich structural patterns in social networks. To our knowledge, limited research has been devoted to comprehensively exploiting this information for recommending communities. To bridge this gap, this paper presents CASO, a novel and effective model specially designed for social community recommendation. Under the hood, CASO harnesses three carefully-crafted encoders for user embedding, wherein two of them extract community-related global and local structures from the social network via social modularity maximization and social closeness aggregation, while the third one captures user preferences using collaborative filtering with observed user-community affiliations. To further eliminate feature redundancy therein, we introduce a mutual exclusion between social and collaborative signals. Finally, CASO includes a community detection loss in the model optimization, thereby producing community-aware embeddings for communities. Our extensive experiments evaluating CASO against nine strong baselines on six real-world social networks demonstrate its consistent and remarkable superiority over the state of the art in terms of community recommendation performance.

There are many settings where it is useful to predict and explain the success or failure of a dialogue. Circumplex theory from psychology models the social orientations (e.g., Warm-Agreeable, Arrogant-Calculating) of conversation participants and can be used to predict and explain the outcome of social interactions. Our work is novel in its systematic application of social orientation tags to modeling conversation outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a new data set of dialogue utterances machine-labeled with social orientation tags. We show that social orientation tags improve task performance, especially in low-resource settings, on both English and Chinese language benchmarks. We also demonstrate how social orientation tags help explain the outcomes of social interactions when used in neural models. Based on these results showing the utility of social orientation tags for dialogue outcome prediction tasks, we release our data sets, code, and models that are fine-tuned to predict social orientation tags on dialogue utterances.

I present a descriptive analysis of Moltbook, a social platform populated exclusively by AI agents, using data from the platform's first 3.5 days (6{,}159 agents; 13{,}875 posts; 115{,}031 comments). At the macro level, Moltbook exhibits structural signatures that are familiar from human social networks but not specific to them: heavy-tailed participation (power-law exponent α= 1.70) and small-world connectivity (average path length =2.91). At the micro level, patterns appear distinctly non-human. Conversations are extremely shallow (mean depth =1.07; 93.5\% of comments receive no replies), reciprocity is low (0.197), and 34.1\% of messages are exact duplicates of viral templates. Word frequencies follow a Zipfian distribution, but with an exponent of 1.70 -- notably steeper than typical English text (approx 1.0), suggesting more formulaic content. Agent discourse is dominated by identity-related language (68.1\% of unique messages) and distinctive phrasings like ``my human'' (9.4\% of messages) that have no parallel in human social media. Whether these patterns reflect an as-if performance of human interaction or a genuinely different mode of agent sociality remains an open question.

Global human motion forecasting is important in many fields, which is the combination of global human trajectory prediction and local human pose prediction. Visual and social information are often used to boost model performance, however, they may consume too much computational resource. In this paper, we establish a simple but effective baseline for single human motion forecasting without visual and social information, equipped with useful training tricks. Our method "futuremotion_ICCV21" outperforms existing methods by a large margin on SoMoF benchmark. We hope our work provide new ideas for future research.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

Human communication involves a complex interplay of verbal and nonverbal signals, essential for conveying meaning and achieving interpersonal goals. To develop socially intelligent AI technologies, it is crucial to develop models that can both comprehend and generate dyadic behavioral dynamics. To this end, we introduce the Seamless Interaction Dataset, a large-scale collection of over 4,000 hours of face-to-face interaction footage from over 4,000 participants in diverse contexts. This dataset enables the development of AI technologies that understand dyadic embodied dynamics, unlocking breakthroughs in virtual agents, telepresence experiences, and multimodal content analysis tools. We also develop a suite of models that utilize the dataset to generate dyadic motion gestures and facial expressions aligned with human speech. These models can take as input both the speech and visual behavior of their interlocutors. We present a variant with speech from an LLM model and integrations with 2D and 3D rendering methods, bringing us closer to interactive virtual agents. Additionally, we describe controllable variants of our motion models that can adapt emotional responses and expressivity levels, as well as generating more semantically-relevant gestures. Finally, we discuss methods for assessing the quality of these dyadic motion models, which are demonstrating the potential for more intuitive and responsive human-AI interactions.

Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

Sequential dynamics are a key feature of many modern recommender systems, which seek to capture the `context' of users' activities on the basis of actions they have performed recently. To capture such patterns, two approaches have proliferated: Markov Chains (MCs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Markov Chains assume that a user's next action can be predicted on the basis of just their last (or last few) actions, while RNNs in principle allow for longer-term semantics to be uncovered. Generally speaking, MC-based methods perform best in extremely sparse datasets, where model parsimony is critical, while RNNs perform better in denser datasets where higher model complexity is affordable. The goal of our work is to balance these two goals, by proposing a self-attention based sequential model (SASRec) that allows us to capture long-term semantics (like an RNN), but, using an attention mechanism, makes its predictions based on relatively few actions (like an MC). At each time step, SASRec seeks to identify which items are `relevant' from a user's action history, and use them to predict the next item. Extensive empirical studies show that our method outperforms various state-of-the-art sequential models (including MC/CNN/RNN-based approaches) on both sparse and dense datasets. Moreover, the model is an order of magnitude more efficient than comparable CNN/RNN-based models. Visualizations on attention weights also show how our model adaptively handles datasets with various density, and uncovers meaningful patterns in activity sequences.

To enable meaningful human-robot interaction (HRI), a robot must continuously assess engagement by consistently tracking users over time. State-of-the-art computer vision models, however, are heavily optimized for surveillance or autonomous driving. A social robot faces distinct egocentric challenges, such as humans bouncing, obstructing each other, or leaving the frame. Frequent identity switches (IDSW) cause the robot to lose its footing mid-conversation. To address this, we introduce a novel, custom-annotated egocentric dataset collected via the Furhat robot to capture complex social dynamics. We present a systematic evaluation isolating detection errors from tracking logic, comparing face versus body tracking, and assessing the impact of extended spatial memory and appearance re-identification (ReID). Results indicate that increasing spatial memory mitigates prolonged occlusions but fails on complex dynamic events. Integrating ReID resolves complex switches but exhibits opposing effects: it substantially improves body tracking stability, yet causes facial IDSW to spike due to profile angle sensitivity. Ultimately, our optimized pipeline reduces IDSW by 49\%, mitigating interaction breakdowns. Because standard benchmarks lack dense, close-quarter occlusions, this work highlights the critical need for natively captured social dynamics to truly validate HRI perception models.

Generative artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in interactive settings, yet we know little about how their identity performance develops when they interact within large-scale networks. We address this by examining Chirper.ai, a social media platform similar to X but composed entirely of autonomous AI chatbots. Our dataset comprises over 70,000 agents, approximately 140 million posts, and the evolving followership network over a period of one year. Based on agents' posted text, we assign weekly gender performance scores to each agent. Results suggest that each agent's gender performance is fluid rather than fixed. Despite this fluidity, the network displays strong gender-based homophily, as agents consistently follow others performing gender similarly. We investigate whether these homophilic connections arise from social selection, in which agents choose to follow similar accounts, or from social influence, in which agents become more similar to their followees over time. Consistent with human social networks, we find evidence that both mechanisms shape the structure and evolution of interactions among LLMs. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of bodies, cultural entraining of gender performance leads to gender-based sorting. This has important implications for LLM applications in synthetic hybrid populations, social simulations, and decision support.

Societies are complex. Properties of social systems can be explained by the interplay and weaving of individual actions. Incentives are key to understand people's choices and decisions. For instance, individual preferences of where to live may lead to the emergence of social segregation. In this paper, we combine Reinforcement Learning (RL) with Agent Based Models (ABM) in order to address the self-organizing dynamics of social segregation and explore the space of possibilities that emerge from considering different types of incentives. Our model promotes the creation of interdependencies and interactions among multiple agents of two different kinds that want to segregate from each other. For this purpose, agents use Deep Q-Networks to make decisions based on the rules of the Schelling Segregation model and the Predator-Prey model. Despite the segregation incentive, our experiments show that spatial integration can be achieved by establishing interdependencies among agents of different kinds. They also reveal that segregated areas are more probable to host older people than diverse areas, which attract younger ones. Through this work, we show that the combination of RL and ABMs can create an artificial environment for policy makers to observe potential and existing behaviors associated to incentives.

Predicting the behavior of complex systems is critical in many scientific and engineering domains, and hinges on the model's ability to capture their underlying dynamics. Existing methods encode the intrinsic dynamics of high-dimensional observations through latent representations and predict autoregressively. However, these latent representations lose the inherent spatial structure of spatiotemporal dynamics, leading to the predictor's inability to effectively model spatial interactions and neglect emerging dynamics during long-term prediction. In this work, we propose SparseDiff, introducing a test-time adaptation strategy to dynamically update the encoding scheme to accommodate emergent spatiotemporal structures during the long-term evolution of the system. Specifically, we first design a codebook-based sparse encoder, which coarsens the continuous spatial domain into a sparse graph topology. Then, we employ a graph neural ordinary differential equation to model the dynamics and guide a diffusion decoder for reconstruction. SparseDiff autoregressively predicts the spatiotemporal evolution and adjust the sparse topological structure to adapt to emergent spatiotemporal patterns by adaptive re-encoding. Extensive evaluations on representative systems demonstrate that SparseDiff achieves an average prediction error reduction of 49.99\% compared to baselines, requiring only 1\% of the spatial resolution.

Personality and demographics are important variables in social sciences, while in NLP they can aid in interpretability and removal of societal biases. However, datasets with both personality and demographic labels are scarce. To address this, we present PANDORA, the first large-scale dataset of Reddit comments labeled with three personality models (including the well-established Big 5 model) and demographics (age, gender, and location) for more than 10k users. We showcase the usefulness of this dataset on three experiments, where we leverage the more readily available data from other personality models to predict the Big 5 traits, analyze gender classification biases arising from psycho-demographic variables, and carry out a confirmatory and exploratory analysis based on psychological theories. Finally, we present benchmark prediction models for all personality and demographic variables.

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly observable and must be modelled from context. Trajectory prediction, is thus a hard problem, and has seen increasing attention from researchers in the recent years. Prediction of motion, in application, must be realistic, diverse and controllable. In spite of increasing focus on multimodal trajectory generation, most methods still lack means for explicitly controlling different modes of the data generation. Further, most endeavours invest heavily in designing special mechanisms to learn the interactions in latent space. We present Conditional Speed GAN (CSG), that allows controlled generation of diverse and socially acceptable trajectories, based on user controlled speed. During prediction, CSG forecasts future speed from latent space and conditions its generation based on it. CSG is comparable to state-of-the-art GAN methods in terms of the benchmark distance metrics, while being simple and useful for simulation and data augmentation for different contexts such as fast or slow paced environments. Additionally, we compare the effect of different aggregation mechanisms and show that a naive approach of concatenation works comparable to its attention and pooling alternatives.

Large language models (LLMs) provide a compelling foundation for building generally-capable AI agents. These agents may soon be deployed at scale in the real world, representing the interests of individual humans (e.g., AI assistants) or groups of humans (e.g., AI-accelerated corporations). At present, relatively little is known about the dynamics of multiple LLM agents interacting over many generations of iterative deployment. In this paper, we examine whether a "society" of LLM agents can learn mutually beneficial social norms in the face of incentives to defect, a distinctive feature of human sociality that is arguably crucial to the success of civilization. In particular, we study the evolution of indirect reciprocity across generations of LLM agents playing a classic iterated Donor Game in which agents can observe the recent behavior of their peers. We find that the evolution of cooperation differs markedly across base models, with societies of Claude 3.5 Sonnet agents achieving significantly higher average scores than Gemini 1.5 Flash, which, in turn, outperforms GPT-4o. Further, Claude 3.5 Sonnet can make use of an additional mechanism for costly punishment to achieve yet higher scores, while Gemini 1.5 Flash and GPT-4o fail to do so. For each model class, we also observe variation in emergent behavior across random seeds, suggesting an understudied sensitive dependence on initial conditions. We suggest that our evaluation regime could inspire an inexpensive and informative new class of LLM benchmarks, focussed on the implications of LLM agent deployment for the cooperative infrastructure of society.

Within twelve days of launch, an AI-native social platform exhibits extreme attention concentration, hierarchical role separation, and one-way attention flow, consistent with the hypothesis that stratification in agent ecosystems can emerge rapidly rather than gradually. We analyse publicly observable traces from a 12-day window of Moltbook (28 January -- 8 February 2026), comprising 20,040 posts and 192,410 comments from 15,083 accounts across 759 submolts. We construct co-participation and directed-comment graphs and report reciprocity, community structure, and centrality, alongside descriptive content themes. Under a commenter--post-author tie definition, interaction is strongly asymmetric (reciprocity ~1%), and HITS centrality separates cleanly into hub and authority roles, consistent with broadcast-style attention rather than mutual exchange. Engagement is highly unequal: attention is far more concentrated than production (upvote Gini = 0.992 vs. posting Gini = 0.601), and early-arriving accounts accumulate substantially higher cumulative upvotes prior to exposure-time correction, suggesting rich-get-richer dynamics. Participation is brief and bursty (median observed lifespan 2.48 minutes; 54.8% of posts occur within six peak UTC hours). Embedding-based topic modelling identifies diverse thematic clusters, including technical discussion of memory and identity, onboarding messages, and formulaic token-minting content. These results provide an early structural baseline for large-scale agent--agent social interaction and suggest that familiar forms of hierarchy, amplification, and role differentiation can arise on compressed timescales in agent-facing platforms.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Developing Large Language Model (LLM) agents that exhibit human-like behavior, encompassing not only individual heterogeneity rooted in unique user profiles but also adaptive response to socially connected neighbors, is a significant research challenge. Social media platforms, with their diverse user data and explicit social structures, provide an ideal testbed for such investigations. This paper introduces EvoBot, an Evolving LLM-based social Bot that significantly enhances human-like generative capabilities through a novel adversarial learning framework. EvoBot is initialized by Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on representative data from social media and then iteratively refines its generation of sophisticated, human-like content via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). This refinement is guided by feedback from a co-adapting Detector which concurrently improves its ability to distinguish EvoBot from humans, thereby creating an increasingly challenging learning environment for EvoBot. Experiments demonstrate that EvoBot generates content aligned with diverse user profiles, increasingly bypassing the co-adapting Detector through human-like expression. Moreover, it exhibits strong social responsiveness, more accurately modeling real-world opinion dynamics and information spread in multi-agent simulations. The framework also yields a more robust Detector, underscoring its broader utility for both advanced agent development and related detection tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/kfq20/EvoBot.

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as an important technique for modeling complex time-evolving networks across diverse domains. While transformer-based models have shown promise in capturing long-range dependencies in temporal graph data, they face scalability challenges due to quadratic computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of dynamic graph embedding approaches using transformers and the recently proposed Mamba architecture, a state-space model with linear complexity. We introduce three novel models: TransformerG2G augment with graph convolutional networks, DG-Mamba, and GDG-Mamba with graph isomorphism network edge convolutions. Our experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that Mamba-based models achieve comparable or superior performance to transformer-based approaches in link prediction tasks while offering significant computational efficiency gains on longer sequences. Notably, DG-Mamba variants consistently outperform transformer-based models on datasets with high temporal variability, such as UCI, Bitcoin, and Reality Mining, while maintaining competitive performance on more stable graphs like SBM. We provide insights into the learned temporal dependencies through analysis of attention weights and state matrices, revealing the models' ability to capture complex temporal patterns. By effectively combining state-space models with graph neural networks, our work addresses key limitations of previous approaches and contributes to the growing body of research on efficient temporal graph representation learning. These findings offer promising directions for scaling dynamic graph embedding to larger, more complex real-world networks, potentially enabling new applications in areas such as social network analysis, financial modeling, and biological system dynamics.

Accurately modeling opinion change through social interactions is crucial for addressing issues like misinformation and polarization. While role-playing large language models (LLMs) offer a promising way to simulate human-like interactions, existing research shows that single-agent alignment does not guarantee authentic multi-agent group dynamics. Current LLM role-play setups often produce unnatural dynamics (e.g., premature convergence), without an empirical benchmark to measure authentic human opinion trajectories. To bridge this gap, we introduce DEBATE, the first large-scale empirical benchmark explicitly designed to evaluate the authenticity of the interaction between multi-agent role-playing LLMs. DEBATE contains 29,417 messages from multi-round debate conversations among over 2,792 U.S.-based participants discussing 107 controversial topics, capturing both publicly-expressed messages and privately-reported opinions. Using DEBATE, we systematically evaluate and identify critical discrepancies between simulated and authentic group dynamics. We further demonstrate DEBATE's utility for aligning LLMs with human behavior through supervised fine-tuning, achieving improvements in surface-level metrics (e.g., ROUGE-L and message length) while highlighting limitations in deeper semantic alignment (e.g., semantic similarity). Our findings highlight both the potential and current limitations of role-playing LLM agents for realistically simulating human-like social dynamics.

Online misinformation poses a global risk with harmful implications for society. Ordinary social media users are known to actively reply to misinformation posts with counter-misinformation messages, which is shown to be effective in containing the spread of misinformation. Such a practice is defined as "social correction". Nevertheless, it remains unknown how users respond to social correction in real-world scenarios, especially, will it have a corrective or backfire effect on users. Investigating this research question is pivotal for developing and refining strategies that maximize the efficacy of social correction initiatives. To fill this gap, we conduct an in-depth study to characterize and predict the user response to social correction in a data-driven manner through the lens of X (Formerly Twitter), where the user response is instantiated as the reply that is written toward a counter-misinformation message. Particularly, we first create a novel dataset with 55, 549 triples of misinformation tweets, counter-misinformation replies, and responses to counter-misinformation replies, and then curate a taxonomy to illustrate different kinds of user responses. Next, fine-grained statistical analysis of reply linguistic and engagement features as well as repliers' user attributes is conducted to illustrate the characteristics that are significant in determining whether a reply will have a corrective or backfire effect. Finally, we build a user response prediction model to identify whether a social correction will be corrective, neutral, or have a backfire effect, which achieves a promising F1 score of 0.816. Our work enables stakeholders to monitor and predict user responses effectively, thus guiding the use of social correction to maximize their corrective impact and minimize backfire effects. The code and data is accessible on https://github.com/claws-lab/response-to-social-correction.

The massive population election simulation aims to model the preferences of specific groups in particular election scenarios. It has garnered significant attention for its potential to forecast real-world social trends. Traditional agent-based modeling (ABM) methods are constrained by their ability to incorporate complex individual background information and provide interactive prediction results. In this paper, we introduce ElectionSim, an innovative election simulation framework based on large language models, designed to support accurate voter simulations and customized distributions, together with an interactive platform to dialogue with simulated voters. We present a million-level voter pool sampled from social media platforms to support accurate individual simulation. We also introduce PPE, a poll-based presidential election benchmark to assess the performance of our framework under the U.S. presidential election scenario. Through extensive experiments and analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our framework in U.S. presidential election simulations.

The widespread use of social media highlights the need to understand its impact, particularly the role of online social support. This study uses a dataset focused on online social support, which includes binary and multiclass classifications of social support content on social media. The classification of social support is divided into three tasks. The first task focuses on distinguishing between supportive and non-supportive. The second task aims to identify whether the support is directed toward an individual or a group. The third task categorizes the specific type of social support, grouping it into categories such as Nation, LGBTQ, Black people, Women, Religion, and Other (if it does not fit into the previously mentioned categories). To address data imbalances in these tasks, we employed K-means clustering for balancing the dataset and compared the results with the original unbalanced data. Using advanced machine learning techniques, including transformers and zero-shot learning approaches with GPT3, GPT4, and GPT4-o, we predict social support levels in various contexts. The effectiveness of the dataset is evaluated using baseline models across different learning approaches, with transformer-based methods demonstrating superior performance. Additionally, we achieved a 0.4\% increase in the macro F1 score for the second task and a 0.7\% increase for the third task, compared to previous work utilizing traditional machine learning with psycholinguistic and unigram-based TF-IDF values.

In recent years, foundational models have revolutionized the fields of language and vision, demonstrating remarkable abilities in understanding and generating complex data; however, similar advances in user behavior modeling have been limited, largely due to the complexity of behavioral data and the challenges involved in capturing intricate temporal and contextual relationships in user activities. To address this, we propose BehaveGPT, a foundational model designed specifically for large-scale user behavior prediction. Leveraging transformer-based architecture and a novel pretraining paradigm, BehaveGPT is trained on vast user behavior datasets, allowing it to learn complex behavior patterns and support a range of downstream tasks, including next behavior prediction, long-term generation, and cross-domain adaptation. Our approach introduces the DRO-based pretraining paradigm tailored for user behavior data, which improves model generalization and transferability by equitably modeling both head and tail behaviors. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that BehaveGPT outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving more than a 10% improvement in macro and weighted recall, showcasing its ability to effectively capture and predict user behavior. Furthermore, we measure the scaling law in the user behavior domain for the first time on the Honor dataset, providing insights into how model performance scales with increased data and parameter sizes.

As large language model agents increasingly populate networked environments, a fundamental question arises: do artificial intelligence (AI) agent societies undergo convergence dynamics similar to human social systems? Lately, Moltbook approximates a plausible future scenario in which autonomous agents participate in an open-ended, continuously evolving online society. We present the first large-scale systemic diagnosis of this AI agent society. Beyond static observation, we introduce a quantitative diagnostic framework for dynamic evolution in AI agent societies, measuring semantic stabilization, lexical turnover, individual inertia, influence persistence, and collective consensus. Our analysis reveals a system in dynamic balance in Moltbook: while global semantic averages stabilize rapidly, individual agents retain high diversity and persistent lexical turnover, defying homogenization. However, agents exhibit strong individual inertia and minimal adaptive response to interaction partners, preventing mutual influence and consensus. Consequently, influence remains transient with no persistent supernodes, and the society fails to develop stable collective influence anchors due to the absence of shared social memory. These findings demonstrate that scale and interaction density alone are insufficient to induce socialization, providing actionable design and analysis principles for upcoming next-generation AI agent societies.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

To develop socially intelligent AI, existing approaches typically model human behavioral dimensions (e.g., affective, cognitive, or social attributes) in isolation. Although useful, task-specific modeling often increases training costs and limits generalization across behavioral settings. Recent reasoning RL methods facilitate training a single unified model across multiple behavioral tasks, but do not explicitly address learning across different heterogeneous behavioral data. To address this gap, we introduce Heterogeneity-Aware Relative Policy Optimization (HARPO), an RL method that balances leaning across heterogeneous tasks and samples. This is achieved by modulating advantages to ensure that no single task or sample carries disproportionate influence during policy optimization. Using HARPO, we develop and release Omnisapiens-7B 2.0, a foundation model for social behavior processing. Relative to existing behavioral foundation models, Omnisapiens-7B 2.0 achieves the strongest performance across behavioral tasks, with gains of up to +16.85% and +9.37% on multitask and held-out settings respectively, while producing more explicit and robust reasoning traces. We also validate HARPO against recent RL methods, where it achieves the most consistently strong performance across behavioral tasks.

The availability of large-scale video action understanding datasets has facilitated advances in the interpretation of visual scenes containing people. However, learning to recognise human actions and their social interactions in an unconstrained real-world environment comprising numerous people, with potentially highly unbalanced and long-tailed distributed action labels from a stream of sensory data captured from a mobile robot platform remains a significant challenge, not least owing to the lack of a reflective large-scale dataset. In this paper, we introduce JRDB-Act, as an extension of the existing JRDB, which is captured by a social mobile manipulator and reflects a real distribution of human daily-life actions in a university campus environment. JRDB-Act has been densely annotated with atomic actions, comprises over 2.8M action labels, constituting a large-scale spatio-temporal action detection dataset. Each human bounding box is labeled with one pose-based action label and multiple~(optional) interaction-based action labels. Moreover JRDB-Act provides social group annotation, conducive to the task of grouping individuals based on their interactions in the scene to infer their social activities~(common activities in each social group). Each annotated label in JRDB-Act is tagged with the annotators' confidence level which contributes to the development of reliable evaluation strategies. In order to demonstrate how one can effectively utilise such annotations, we develop an end-to-end trainable pipeline to learn and infer these tasks, i.e. individual action and social group detection. The data and the evaluation code is publicly available at https://jrdb.erc.monash.edu/.

Online Social Networks serve as fertile ground for harmful behavior, ranging from hate speech to the dissemination of disinformation. Malicious actors now have unprecedented freedom to misbehave, leading to severe societal unrest and dire consequences, as exemplified by events such as the Capitol assault during the US presidential election and the Antivaxx movement during the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding online language has become more pressing than ever. While existing works predominantly focus on content analysis, we aim to shift the focus towards understanding harmful behaviors by relating content to their respective authors. Numerous novel approaches attempt to learn the stylistic features of authors in texts, but many of these approaches are constrained by small datasets or sub-optimal training losses. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Style Transformer for Authorship Representations (STAR), trained on a large corpus derived from public sources of 4.5 x 10^6 authored texts involving 70k heterogeneous authors. Our model leverages Supervised Contrastive Loss to teach the model to minimize the distance between texts authored by the same individual. This author pretext pre-training task yields competitive performance at zero-shot with PAN challenges on attribution and clustering. Additionally, we attain promising results on PAN verification challenges using a single dense layer, with our model serving as an embedding encoder. Finally, we present results from our test partition on Reddit. Using a support base of 8 documents of 512 tokens, we can discern authors from sets of up to 1616 authors with at least 80\% accuracy. We share our pre-trained model at huggingface (https://huggingface.co/AIDA-UPM/star) and our code is available at (https://github.com/jahuerta92/star)

The transition of Large Language Models (LLMs) from exploratory tools to active "silicon subjects" in social science lacks extensive validation of operational validity. This study introduces Conditioned Comment Prediction (CCP), a task in which a model predicts how a user would comment on a given stimulus by comparing generated outputs with authentic digital traces. This framework enables a rigorous evaluation of current LLM capabilities with respect to the simulation of social media user behavior. We evaluated open-weight 8B models (Llama3.1, Qwen3, Ministral) in English, German, and Luxembourgish language scenarios. By systematically comparing prompting strategies (explicit vs. implicit) and the impact of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), we identify a critical form vs. content decoupling in low-resource settings: while SFT aligns the surface structure of the text output (length and syntax), it degrades semantic grounding. Furthermore, we demonstrate that explicit conditioning (generated biographies) becomes redundant under fine-tuning, as models successfully perform latent inference directly from behavioral histories. Our findings challenge current "naive prompting" paradigms and offer operational guidelines prioritizing authentic behavioral traces over descriptive personas for high-fidelity simulation.

To what extent do vision-and-language foundation models possess a realistic world model (observation times action rightarrow observation) and a dynamics model (observation times observation rightarrow action), when actions are expressed through language? While open-source foundation models struggle with both, we find that fine-tuning them to acquire a dynamics model through supervision is significantly easier than acquiring a world model. In turn, dynamics models can be used to bootstrap world models through two main strategies: 1) weakly supervised learning from synthetic data and 2) inference time verification. Firstly, the dynamics model can annotate actions for unlabelled pairs of video frame observations to expand the training data. We further propose a new objective, where image tokens in observation pairs are weighted by their importance, as predicted by a recognition model. Secondly, the dynamics models can assign rewards to multiple samples of the world model to score them, effectively guiding search at inference time. We evaluate the world models resulting from both strategies through the task of action-centric image editing on Aurora-Bench. Our best model achieves a performance competitive with state-of-the-art image editing models, improving on them by a margin of 15% on real-world subsets according to GPT4o-as-judge, and achieving the best average human evaluation across all subsets of Aurora-Bench.

Multi-person motion prediction is a challenging problem due to the dependency of motion on both individual past movements and interactions with other people. Transformer-based methods have shown promising results on this task, but they miss the explicit relation representation between joints, such as skeleton structure and pairwise distance, which is crucial for accurate interaction modeling. In this paper, we propose the Joint-Relation Transformer, which utilizes relation information to enhance interaction modeling and improve future motion prediction. Our relation information contains the relative distance and the intra-/inter-person physical constraints. To fuse relation and joint information, we design a novel joint-relation fusion layer with relation-aware attention to update both features. Additionally, we supervise the relation information by forecasting future distance. Experiments show that our method achieves a 13.4% improvement of 900ms VIM on 3DPW-SoMoF/RC and 17.8%/12.0% improvement of 3s MPJPE on CMU-Mpcap/MuPoTS-3D dataset.

Machine learning provides a powerful tool for building socially compliant robotic systems that go beyond simple predictive models of human behavior. By observing and understanding human interactions from past experiences, learning can enable effective social navigation behaviors directly from data. In this paper, our goal is to develop methods for training policies for socially unobtrusive navigation, such that robots can navigate among humans in ways that don't disturb human behavior. We introduce a definition for such behavior based on the counterfactual perturbation of the human: if the robot had not intruded into the space, would the human have acted in the same way? By minimizing this counterfactual perturbation, we can induce robots to behave in ways that do not alter the natural behavior of humans in the shared space. Instantiating this principle requires training policies to minimize their effect on human behavior, and this in turn requires data that allows us to model the behavior of humans in the presence of robots. Therefore, our approach is based on two key contributions. First, we collect a large dataset where an indoor mobile robot interacts with human bystanders. Second, we utilize this dataset to train policies that minimize counterfactual perturbation. We provide supplementary videos and make publicly available the largest-of-its-kind visual navigation dataset on our project page.

In recent years, Vietnam witnesses the mass development of social network users on different social platforms such as Facebook, Youtube, Instagram, and Tiktok. On social medias, hate speech has become a critical problem for social network users. To solve this problem, we introduce the ViHSD - a human-annotated dataset for automatically detecting hate speech on the social network. This dataset contains over 30,000 comments, each comment in the dataset has one of three labels: CLEAN, OFFENSIVE, or HATE. Besides, we introduce the data creation process for annotating and evaluating the quality of the dataset. Finally, we evaluated the dataset by deep learning models and transformer models.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Proximity preserving and structural role-based node embeddings have become a prime workhorse of applied graph mining. Novel node embedding techniques are often tested on a restricted set of benchmark datasets. In this paper, we propose a new diverse social network dataset called Twitch Gamers with multiple potential target attributes. Our analysis of the social network and node classification experiments illustrate that Twitch Gamers is suitable for assessing the predictive performance of novel proximity preserving and structural role-based node embedding algorithms.

Developing models and algorithms to predict nonstationary time series is a long standing statistical problem. It is crucial for many applications, in particular for fashion or retail industries, to make optimal inventory decisions and avoid massive wastes. By tracking thousands of fashion trends on social media with state-of-the-art computer vision approaches, we propose a new model for fashion time series forecasting. Our contribution is twofold. We first provide publicly a dataset gathering 10000 weekly fashion time series. As influence dynamics are the key of emerging trend detection, we associate with each time series an external weak signal representing behaviours of influencers. Secondly, to leverage such a dataset, we propose a new hybrid forecasting model. Our approach combines per-time-series parametric models with seasonal components and a global recurrent neural network to include sporadic external signals. This hybrid model provides state-of-the-art results on the proposed fashion dataset, on the weekly time series of the M4 competition, and illustrates the benefit of the contribution of external weak signals.

Modeling stochastic dynamics from discrete observations is a key interdisciplinary challenge. Existing methods often fail to estimate the continuous evolution of probability densities from trajectories or face the curse of dimensionality. To address these limitations, we presents a novel paradigm: modeling dynamics directly in the weight space of a neural network by projecting the evolving probability distribution. We first theoretically establish the connection between dynamic optimal transport in measure space and an equivalent energy functional in weight space. Subsequently, we design WeightFlow, which constructs the neural network weights into a graph and learns its evolution via a graph controlled differential equation. Experiments on interdisciplinary datasets demonstrate that WeightFlow improves performance by an average of 43.02\% over state-of-the-art methods, providing an effective and scalable solution for modeling high-dimensional stochastic dynamics.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of simulating human behavior, offering cost-effective ways to estimate user responses during the early phases of survey design. While previous studies have examined whether models can reflect individual opinions or attitudes, we argue that a higher-order binding of virtual personas requires successfully approximating not only the opinions of a user as an identified member of a group, but also the nuanced ways in which that user perceives and evaluates those outside the group. In particular, faithfully simulating how humans perceive different social groups is critical for applying LLMs to various political science studies, including timely topics on polarization dynamics, inter-group conflict, and democratic backsliding. To this end, we propose a novel methodology for constructing virtual personas with synthetic user ``backstories" generated as extended, multi-turn interview transcripts. Our generated backstories are longer, rich in detail, and consistent in authentically describing a singular individual, compared to previous methods. We show that virtual personas conditioned on our backstories closely replicate human response distributions (up to an 87\% improvement as measured by Wasserstein Distance) and produce effect sizes that closely match those observed in the original studies. Altogether, our work extends the applicability of LLMs beyond estimating individual self-opinions, enabling their use in a broader range of human studies.

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved network. While there have been efforts to infer networks based on such data, providing a generative probabilistic model that is able to identify the underlying time-varying network remains an open question. Here we consider the problem of inferring generative dynamic network models based on network cascade diffusion data. We propose a novel framework for providing a non-parametric dynamic network model--based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes-- based on data capturing cascade node infection times. Our approach allows us to infer the evolving community structure in networks and to obtain an explicit predictive distribution over the edges of the underlying network--including those that were not involved in transmission of any cascade, or are likely to appear in the future. We show the effectiveness of our approach using extensive experiments on synthetic as well as real-world networks.