FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction
Paper • 2508.11987 • Published • 72
Datasets:
id stringlengths 24 24 | prompt stringlengths 360 602 | end_time stringdate 2026-09-30 12:00:00+0800 2026-10-06 23:59:59+0800 | level int64 1 4 | en_title stringlengths 69 206 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
da0b6efe1518749297be7608 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What seasonally adjusted value of new orders for manufactured goods, in billions of dollars, will the Census Bureau report in the August 2026 Full Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders? (resolved around 2026-10-03T00:00:00... | 2026-10-03T00:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What seasonally adjusted value of new orders for manufactured goods, in billions of dollars, will the Census Bureau report in the August 2026 Full Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders? |
f1bc14ec2fa66ba92bdb3651 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What seasonally adjusted Production index (2020=100) will METI print in the 30 September 2026 preliminary Indices of Industrial Production for August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-30T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native ... | 2026-09-30T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What seasonally adjusted Production index (2020=100) will METI print in the 30 September 2026 preliminary Indices of Industrial Production for August 2026? |
1e8c74f530ad02395fa4bd6d | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which two Senate candidates will TSE rank first and second by valid votes for São Paulo in the 4 October 2026 first-round Senate election? (resolved around 2026-10-05T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by... | 2026-10-05T16:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which two Senate candidates will TSE rank first and second by valid votes for São Paulo in the 4 October 2026 first-round Senate election? |
34d68c26f33e362259349653 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which individual persons will be named as 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics laureates? (resolved around 2026-10-06T22:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentary.
IMP... | 2026-10-06T22:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which individual persons will be named as 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics laureates? |
5d91b7d673f57e3d4136d13c | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which assignees will appear on the first three utility patents in the USPTO Official Gazette issue dated 6 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement co... | 2026-10-06T23:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which assignees will appear on the first three utility patents in the USPTO Official Gazette issue dated 6 October 2026? |
1b1039bbce251d650147ae1a | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which three U.S. AirNow monitors will have the highest reported PM2.5 daily AQI on 30 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-01T18:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no uni... | 2026-10-01T18:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which three U.S. AirNow monitors will have the highest reported PM2.5 daily AQI on 30 September 2026? |
12f2de71a7896d1db65cbd3a | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What ordered top five films will Box Office Mojo report in Domestic Weekend 40 actuals for 2–4 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What ordered top five films will Box Office Mojo report in Domestic Weekend 40 actuals for 2–4 October 2026? |
8e2813c87d98b1d5b02cd98d | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What ordered top five albums will Circle Chart publish on its 2026 Week 39 Album Chart? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commenta... | 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 | 4 | What ordered top five albums will Circle Chart publish on its 2026 Week 39 Album Chart? |
de37a4f219bc73b4062731d3 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What seasonally adjusted annual rate of total U.S. construction spending will Census report for August 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with... | 2026-10-01T23:30:00+08:00 | 4 | What seasonally adjusted annual rate of total U.S. construction spending will Census report for August 2026? |
89b3743bc295f744267215f2 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many deaths will ONS report as registered in England and Wales in the week ending 18 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-30T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no ... | 2026-09-30T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | How many deaths will ONS report as registered in England and Wales in the week ending 18 September 2026? |
aa8f70bc99d2a4a4c3426c10 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which two presidential tickets will rank first and second on TSE first-round valid votes on 4 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with ... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which two presidential tickets will rank first and second on TSE first-round valid votes on 4 October 2026? |
8adb1ef109c6fca19b6973c1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which three lists will rank first, second and third by nationwide valid votes in Latvia's 3 October 2026 Saeima election? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement c... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which three lists will rank first, second and third by nationwide valid votes in Latvia's 3 October 2026 Saeima election? |
894d99a64de9babb5a77e38b | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the official 72-hole winning score at the 2026 Bank of Utah Championship? (resolved around 2026-10-05T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentar... | 2026-10-05T16:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What will be the official 72-hole winning score at the 2026 Bank of Utah Championship? |
3571b930d62e812ba94442b4 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Rank Tokyo, Osaka, Sapporo, Fukuoka, and Naha from highest to lowest JMA daily maximum temperature on 30 September 2026. (resolved around 2026-10-01T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement co... | 2026-10-01T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Rank Tokyo, Osaka, Sapporo, Fukuoka, and Naha from highest to lowest JMA daily maximum temperature on 30 September 2026. |
a5ecf7d29547f5b97712533f | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What are the NOAA region numbers of the five largest active solar regions by corrected area in SWPC's 30 September 2026 Solar Region Summary? (resolved around 2026-10-01T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required... | 2026-10-01T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What are the NOAA region numbers of the five largest active solar regions by corrected area in SWPC's 30 September 2026 Solar Region Summary? |
ae57d8ff17e387a3b293a469 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which individual persons will be named as 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine laureates? (resolved around 2026-10-06T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or ... | 2026-10-06T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | Which individual persons will be named as 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine laureates? |
4b8b74ebdfe380afd1193837 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What seasonally adjusted annual rate of U.S. personal income, in billions of dollars, will BEA report for August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-30T22:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement cont... | 2026-09-30T22:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What seasonally adjusted annual rate of U.S. personal income, in billions of dollars, will BEA report for August 2026? |
1c50ef7235986247302398aa | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect southbound Daily Sell Trades be on 30 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-30T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or... | 2026-09-30T20:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What will Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect southbound Daily Sell Trades be on 30 September 2026? |
899f2e10fc06e8570a1d87fd | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many locally acquired human West Nile virus cases will ECDC's 2 October 2026 weekly update report as the 2026-season cumulative total? (resolved around 2026-10-03T06:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by... | 2026-10-03T06:00:00+08:00 | 4 | How many locally acquired human West Nile virus cases will ECDC's 2 October 2026 weekly update report as the 2026-season cumulative total? |
08724a364594c53b79c1cacd | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the ordered USGS place labels of the three largest earthquakes worldwide from 00:00 UTC 4 October through 00:00 UTC 6 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value requi... | 2026-10-06T12:00:00+08:00 | 4 | What will be the ordered USGS place labels of the three largest earthquakes worldwide from 00:00 UTC 4 October through 00:00 UTC 6 October 2026? |
36638bb2d88c7efb1d777fa0 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many specimens will U.S. clinical laboratories report positive for influenza in CDC FluView week 38 of 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-03T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, ... | 2026-10-03T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many specimens will U.S. clinical laboratories report positive for influenza in CDC FluView week 38 of 2026? |
74af4dee621142850e73e630 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which artist will rank No. 1 on the Billboard Artist 100 dated 10 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentary.
IMPO... | 2026-10-06T23:59:59+08:00 | 3 | Which artist will rank No. 1 on the Billboard Artist 100 dated 10 October 2026? |
e9006abf9780072d8ebb270e | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will the BLS seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment occupy in September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T22:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. 24,000 or fewer (including a decline)
B. 25,000 to 74,000
C. 75,000 to 12... | 2026-10-02T22:30:00+08:00 | 3 | Which range will the BLS seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment occupy in September 2026? |
2f764abd71c15673e8c51b31 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will the Bank of Japan September 2026 Tankan large-enterprise manufacturing business-conditions DI occupy? (resolved around 2026-10-01T10:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. +21 or lower
B. +22 to +25
C. +26 to +29
D. +30 or higher
E. NO_OFFI... | 2026-10-01T10:00:00+08:00 | 3 | Which range will the Bank of Japan September 2026 Tankan large-enterprise manufacturing business-conditions DI occupy? |
50637aeaeef7da6ccfde89d5 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will NIKE report as diluted EPS for fiscal first quarter 2027? (resolved around 2026-10-02T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. USD 0.35 or lower
B. USD 0.36 to 0.44
C. USD 0.45 to 0.53
D. USD 0.54 or higher
E. NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE"
IMPORTAN... | 2026-10-02T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | Which range will NIKE report as diluted EPS for fiscal first quarter 2027? |
dcad53aa97d46d2dae783dbd | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What nationwide valid-vote percentage will Apvienotais saraksts receive in Latvia's 3 October 2026 Saeima election? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contrac... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What nationwide valid-vote percentage will Apvienotais saraksts receive in Latvia's 3 October 2026 Saeima election? |
6eca37926de252a2138caefc | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many total goals will the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers score in their 2026-27 regular-season game on 30 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-01T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by... | 2026-10-01T16:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many total goals will the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers score in their 2026-27 regular-season game on 30 September 2026? |
af5c0a9b02c74fba864c7484 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many total goals will the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins score in their 2026-27 regular-season game on 29 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-30T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the sett... | 2026-09-30T16:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many total goals will the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins score in their 2026-27 regular-season game on 29 September 2026? |
f06d2fc80c5d98ca52e7fd74 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many total points will the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers score in their NFL Week 4 Sunday Night game? (resolved around 2026-10-05T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, w... | 2026-10-05T14:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many total points will the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers score in their NFL Week 4 Sunday Night game? |
824419fee2c59043bbcddfab | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many filtered wind reports will NOAA SPC list for the convective day of 3 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-05T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or comm... | 2026-10-05T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many filtered wind reports will NOAA SPC list for the convective day of 3 October 2026? |
f0a08b0748053efaab77bbc6 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquakes will USGS record worldwide from 00:00 UTC 2 October through 00:00 UTC 4 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-04T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the se... | 2026-10-04T12:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many magnitude 5.0 or greater earthquakes will USGS record worldwide from 00:00 UTC 2 October through 00:00 UTC 4 October 2026? |
b68c269bb9dd243ecf179cb3 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What maximum sustained wind in knots will CPHC/NHC's Forecast/Advisory for Hurricane Nolo (EP152026) assign in the 1500 UTC 30 September 2026 analysis? (resolved around 2026-10-01T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native valu... | 2026-10-01T08:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What maximum sustained wind in knots will CPHC/NHC's Forecast/Advisory for Hurricane Nolo (EP152026) assign in the 1500 UTC 30 September 2026 analysis? |
7896d5dbb93fc6a260557d33 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What maximum temperature will Australia's Bureau of Meteorology report for Canberra Airport on 30 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-01T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract,... | 2026-10-01T16:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What maximum temperature will Australia's Bureau of Meteorology report for Canberra Airport on 30 September 2026? |
8da1a504b34b2914a6732265 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many magnitude 6.5 or larger earthquakes will USGS ComCat record from 30 September through 5 October 2026 UTC? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many magnitude 6.5 or larger earthquakes will USGS ComCat record from 30 September through 5 October 2026 UTC? |
eeb3091ade9b0bd017cfb036 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What exact song will rank No. 1 on Circle Chart's 2026 Week 39 Streaming Chart? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentary.
IMPO... | 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 | 3 | What exact song will rank No. 1 on Circle Chart's 2026 Week 39 Streaming Chart? |
1b423aa24d6eefff04a75bcd | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will the EIA weekly net change in Lower-48 working natural-gas storage occupy for the week ending 25 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. Net change of +39 Bcf or less (including a withdrawal)
B. ... | 2026-10-01T23:30:00+08:00 | 3 | Which range will the EIA weekly net change in Lower-48 working natural-gas storage occupy for the week ending 25 September 2026? |
3e112b6a2a0a82e08f9831c9 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many deaths will NISRA report as registered in Northern Ireland in the week ending 25 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no... | 2026-10-02T20:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many deaths will NISRA report as registered in Northern Ireland in the week ending 25 September 2026? |
71f0d836a0c439f58440fa32 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many deaths will National Records of Scotland report as registered in the latest complete week of its 1 October 2026 weekly-deaths release? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value requir... | 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 | 3 | How many deaths will National Records of Scotland report as registered in the latest complete week of its 1 October 2026 weekly-deaths release? |
3fed60e91badbbb0e6f63279 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What exact title will NASA publish for Astronomy Picture of the Day on 3 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-04T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contract, with no units or commentar... | 2026-10-04T12:00:00+08:00 | 3 | What exact title will NASA publish for Astronomy Picture of the Day on 3 October 2026? |
2b9d5cc0afd8d2ac88be0268 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many items will Nature list under the Research > Articles heading in Volume 657 Issue 8134 dated 1 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8))."
Return exactly the source-native value required by the settlement contra... | 2026-10-02T20:00:00+08:00 | 3 | How many items will Nature list under the Research > Articles heading in Volume 657 Issue 8134 dated 1 October 2026? |
6e8b5e446cf6b232de468f6d | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will the Eurostat flash estimate of euro-area annual All-items HICP inflation occupy for September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be below 3.0%
B. the outcome be 3.0% to 3.2%
C. the outcom... | 2026-10-02T23:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will the Eurostat flash estimate of euro-area annual All-items HICP inflation occupy for September 2026? |
17d07fa10e8ccf5d4ba363e7 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which album will be No. 1 on the Billboard 200 dated 10 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Westside Whimsy — Jhené Aiko
B. the outcome be Dandelion — Ella Langley
C. the outcome be you seem pre... | 2026-10-06T23:59:59+08:00 | 2 | Which album will be No. 1 on the Billboard 200 dated 10 October 2026? |
f0ba7348a40647f6bf3aaf69 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims occupy for the week ending 26 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-01T21:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 189,000 or fewer
B. the outcome be 190,000 to 209,000
C. the ... | 2026-10-01T21:30:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims occupy for the week ending 26 September 2026? |
91c2686944dc6d31206a8006 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott bantamweight co-main event at UFC 332? (resolved around 2026-10-04T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Deiveson Figueiredo
B. the outcome be Payton Talbott
C. the outcome be DRAW_OR... | 2026-10-04T16:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Who will win the Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott bantamweight co-main event at UFC 332? |
32ccee815d66a0ab64d11449 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the official 90-minute result of France vs Italy in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League on 2 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-03T10:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be France win
B. the outcome be DRAW
C. the outcome be Ital... | 2026-10-03T10:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What will be the official 90-minute result of France vs Italy in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League on 2 October 2026? |
5b3bfb6c84f7d10c430a12d5 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will be the official 90-minute result of Croatia vs England in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League on 3 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-04T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Croatia win
B. the outcome be DRAW
C. the outcome be ... | 2026-10-04T08:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What will be the official 90-minute result of Croatia vs England in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League on 3 October 2026? |
ef812aa8ce0bf4ca980a429e | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What share of the contiguous United States will the U.S. Drought Monitor place in D1-D4 drought on the map valid 29 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Below 55.0%
B. the outcome be 55.0% to 5... | 2026-10-02T08:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What share of the contiguous United States will the U.S. Drought Monitor place in D1-D4 drought on the map valid 29 September 2026? |
d4bde36112d07d71ddb73095 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Into which band will the number of volcanic earthquakes in PHIVOLCS' Mayon Volcano bulletin dated 1 October 2026 fall? (resolved around 2026-10-01T18:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 0-4
B. the outcome be 5-14
C. the outcome be 15-29
D.... | 2026-10-01T18:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Into which band will the number of volcanic earthquakes in PHIVOLCS' Mayon Volcano bulletin dated 1 October 2026 fall? |
2a27cf1703854d7d1457cec1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many numbered Atlantic disturbances will NHC's 1800 UTC 1 October 2026 Tropical Weather Outlook contain? (resolved around 2026-10-02T06:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 0
B. the outcome be 1
C. the outcome be 2
D. the outcome be 3
E... | 2026-10-02T06:00:00+08:00 | 2 | How many numbered Atlantic disturbances will NHC's 1800 UTC 1 October 2026 Tropical Weather Outlook contain? |
dcb620c851e984cfa9d5c164 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "How many individual persons will be named as 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics laureates? (resolved around 2026-10-06T23:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 1
B. the outcome be 2
C. the outcome be 3
D. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT"
IMPORTAN... | 2026-10-06T23:30:00+08:00 | 2 | How many individual persons will be named as 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics laureates? |
173ec9c5366b64fb4b6e96bd | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Into which band will the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fall in the September 2026 Employment Situation first print? (resolved around 2026-10-02T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 3.9% or lower
B. the outcome be 4.0%
C. the... | 2026-10-02T23:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Into which band will the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fall in the September 2026 Employment Situation first print? |
ad5452b913c3967f8668fcec | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Into which band will EIA's weekly Lower-48 working-gas net change fall in the 1 October 2026 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Net withdrawal or unchanged
B. the outcome b... | 2026-10-01T23:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Into which band will EIA's weekly Lower-48 working-gas net change fall in the 1 October 2026 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report? |
01753e1358fd36a3e6133ce5 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Into which band will U.S. core PCE price index month-over-month fall in the August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays first print? (resolved around 2026-09-30T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 0.1% or lower
B. the outcome be 0.2%
C. the... | 2026-09-30T23:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Into which band will U.S. core PCE price index month-over-month fall in the August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays first print? |
51903c9165160492c585fe77 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will the ISM Manufacturing PMI occupy in the September 2026 Report on Business? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be below 52.0
B. the outcome be 52.0 to 54.9
C. the outcome be 55.0 to 57.9
D. the ... | 2026-10-01T23:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will the ISM Manufacturing PMI occupy in the September 2026 Report on Business? |
cd1e34c4f765a5e5d49d0eee | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will ADP report for the September 2026 change in U.S. private-sector employment? (resolved around 2026-09-30T21:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be a decline, or an increase of 24,000 or fewer
B. the outcome be 25,000 to 74,000... | 2026-09-30T21:30:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will ADP report for the September 2026 change in U.S. private-sector employment? |
90aa96bbb331543af24f0271 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which range will Tokyo-area core CPI (all items less fresh food) occupy year on year in September 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T10:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be 1.8% or lower
B. the outcome be 1.9% to 2.0%
C. the outcome be 2.1% ... | 2026-10-02T10:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Which range will Tokyo-area core CPI (all items less fresh food) occupy year on year in September 2026? |
de71b7b5cb70e461e11c65a4 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Which band will Singapore CDA print for dengue fever cases in epidemiological week 38 of 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be under 60
B. the outcome be 60 to 89
C. the outcome be 90 to 119
D. the outcom... | 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 | 2 | Which band will Singapore CDA print for dengue fever cases in epidemiological week 38 of 2026? |
68d84e88250212aa6ab74fc7 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will be elected Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina on 4 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be DARIJANA FILIPOVIĆ
B. the outcome be SLAVEN KOVAČEVIĆ
C. the outcome be ZDEN... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 2 | Who will be elected Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina on 4 October 2026? |
756ac18a7f14fffb86cb096c | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will the official OPEC press statement for the 68th JMMC on 4 October 2026 say about production adjustments? (resolved around 2026-10-05T23:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Reaffirms existing DoC / voluntary adjustments with no ann... | 2026-10-05T23:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What will the official OPEC press statement for the 68th JMMC on 4 October 2026 say about production adjustments? |
337357eef9cb4b291b2ee19e | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What class band will contain the strongest solar flare reported by NASA DONKI from 30 September through 3 October 2026 UTC? (resolved around 2026-10-05T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be NO_FLARES
B. the outcome be A or B
C. the outcom... | 2026-10-05T12:00:00+08:00 | 2 | What class band will contain the strongest solar flare reported by NASA DONKI from 30 September through 3 October 2026 UTC? |
e8ccc1bf50d09b30b546e232 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will at least one of the four 2026 MLB Wild Card Series require a Game 3 on 1 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT"
IMPORTANT: End wi... | 2026-10-02T20:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will at least one of the four 2026 MLB Wild Card Series require a Game 3 on 1 October 2026? |
8ffb5eb4570cfd7eed22994f | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will NOAA SPC list at least one filtered tornado report for the convective day of 2 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-04T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE"
IMPORTANT:... | 2026-10-04T08:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will NOAA SPC list at least one filtered tornado report for the convective day of 2 October 2026? |
aff2730550d18f3e5bd6bfe7 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley remain No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 dated 10 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-06T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, Choosin' Texas remains No. 1
B. the outcome be No, a different title i... | 2026-10-06T23:59:59+08:00 | 1 | Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley remain No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 dated 10 October 2026? |
0fb253194ae64c475dcffe5a | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Brazil's 4 October 2026 presidential first round go to a runoff under the TSE 50% valid-vote rule? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT"
IMPOR... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will Brazil's 4 October 2026 presidential first round go to a runoff under the TSE 50% valid-vote rule? |
f078feda9acba66845209814 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Jaunā Vienotība reach the 5% nationwide barrier in Latvia's 3 October 2026 Saeima election? (resolved around 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT"
IMPORTANT: E... | 2026-10-06T20:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will Jaunā Vienotība reach the 5% nationwide barrier in Latvia's 3 October 2026 Saeima election? |
2856ccff7e2d587589e324de | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the vacant UFC women's flyweight title fight between Natalia Silva and Wang Cong at UFC 332? (resolved around 2026-10-04T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Natalia Silva
B. the outcome be Wang Cong
C. the outcome be DRAW_O... | 2026-10-04T16:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the vacant UFC women's flyweight title fight between Natalia Silva and Wang Cong at UFC 332? |
d52b5b055acd1ae0bf4e5bbd | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the NFL Week 4 Thursday Night game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on 1 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Pittsburgh Steelers
B. the outcome be Cleveland Brow... | 2026-10-02T14:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the NFL Week 4 Thursday Night game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on 1 October 2026? |
5cdd0b71f458255bc4c31c86 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the 2026-27 NHL regular-season opener between the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes on 29 September 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-30T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Carolina Hurricanes
B. the outcome be Florida ... | 2026-09-30T14:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the 2026-27 NHL regular-season opener between the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes on 29 September 2026? |
58e6a11691f20483e9493447 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the men's singles title at the 2026 Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships in Tokyo? (resolved around 2026-10-06T23:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Carlos Alcaraz
B. the outcome be Taylor Fritz
C. the outcome be K... | 2026-10-06T23:30:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the men's singles title at the 2026 Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships in Tokyo? |
b680b3238fe0399605e3d9cf | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the King Green vs Esteban Ribovics lightweight bout on the UFC 332 main card? (resolved around 2026-10-04T16:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be King Green
B. the outcome be Esteban Ribovics
C. the outcome be DRAW_OR_NC
D. the... | 2026-10-04T16:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the King Green vs Esteban Ribovics lightweight bout on the UFC 332 main card? |
d7ccd5591a03550707bb6b41 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will NOAA SPC list at least one filtered tornado report for the convective day of 1 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-03T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE"
IMPORTANT:... | 2026-10-03T08:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will NOAA SPC list at least one filtered tornado report for the convective day of 1 October 2026? |
f880f119630c7de407c4ce92 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will USGS record at least one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide from 00:00 UTC 30 September through 00:00 UTC 2 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-02T12:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the ou... | 2026-10-02T12:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will USGS record at least one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide from 00:00 UTC 30 September through 00:00 UTC 2 October 2026? |
a1648f197b5caa3da153eb95 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will NICC report at least one new large incident in the 30 September 2026 Incident Management Situation Report? (resolved around 2026-10-01T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, at least one
B. the outcome be No, zero
C. the outcome ... | 2026-10-01T08:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Will NICC report at least one new large incident in the 30 September 2026 Incident Management Situation Report? |
47b6a4eb3265b9ad7fdc9e66 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Who will win the NFL Week 4 London game between the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders on 4 October 2026? (resolved around 2026-10-05T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Indianapolis Colts
B. the outcome be Washington Commande... | 2026-10-05T08:00:00+08:00 | 1 | Who will win the NFL Week 4 London game between the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders on 4 October 2026? |
296746e604db57e4bc3011bb | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will Banco de la República do with the monetary-policy interest rate at the 30 September 2026 Junta Directiva meeting? (resolved around 2026-10-01T08:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be HOLD at 12.00%
B. the outcome be HIKE
C. the out... | 2026-10-01T08:00:00+08:00 | 1 | What will Banco de la República do with the monetary-policy interest rate at the 30 September 2026 Junta Directiva meeting? |
d8d399aa321ac88aa5fce5b1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will LOVE ATTACK by RESCENE remain No. 1 on Circle Chart's 2026 Week 39 Digital Chart? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, LOVE ATTACK by RESCENE remains No. 1
B. the outcome be No, a different title is ... | 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 | 1 | Will LOVE ATTACK by RESCENE remain No. 1 on Circle Chart's 2026 Week 39 Digital Chart? |
610e8d3481efb31c5981f197 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "What will Banco de la República do with the monetary-policy interest rate at the 30 September 2026 Board decision? (resolved around 2026-10-01T14:00:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Raise the policy rate above 12%
B. the outcome be Keep th... | 2026-10-01T14:00:00+08:00 | 1 | What will Banco de la República do with the monetary-policy interest rate at the 30 September 2026 Board decision? |
bad8051b0463b5cf8126faa1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will the BEA core PCE price index be at least 3.5% year on year in August 2026? (resolved around 2026-09-30T22:30:00+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes, 3.5% or higher
B. the outcome be No, below 3.5%
C. the outcome be NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE"
... | 2026-09-30T22:30:00+08:00 | 1 | Will the BEA core PCE price index be at least 3.5% year on year in August 2026? |
d5fea69a4860ccf28b31c04a | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will UKHSA's 1 October 2026 weekly all-cause mortality surveillance report mark a high-mortality signal for England, all ages combined, in the latest week of occurrence presented? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the out... | 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 | 1 | Will UKHSA's 1 October 2026 weekly all-cause mortality surveillance report mark a high-mortality signal for England, all ages combined, in the latest week of occurrence presented? |
3e0d0c0f29386e79271b98b1 | You are an agent that can predict future events. The event to be predicted: "Will Hong Kong CHP's COVID-19 & Flu Express print a week-39 seasonal-influenza respiratory-specimen positivity of at least 12.00%? (resolved around 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 (GMT+8)).
A. the outcome be Yes
B. the outcome be No
C. the outcome b... | 2026-10-01T23:59:59+08:00 | 1 | Will Hong Kong CHP's COVID-19 & Flu Express print a week-39 seasonal-influenza respiratory-specimen positivity of at least 12.00%? |
Submission Guidelines — Weekly Prediction Challenge
📄 Technical Report: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.11987 🌐 LeaderBoard: https://futurex-ai.github.io/
We run a weekly real-time prediction challenge. This repo always contains latest events.
1. Weekly Rules
- A new set of tasks is released every week.
- This week's tasks cover events with an end time between
2026-09-30, 24:00 (UTC+8)and2026-10-06, 24:00 (UTC+8). - You must download the tasks, make predictions, and email us your results before Wednesday 24:00 (UTC+8) each week.
- Late submissions will not be counted.
- The leaderboard for this round will be updated by
2026-10-08 24:00 (UTC+8, Beijing Time).
⚠️ Next submission deadline: 2026-09-30, 24:00 (UTC+8, Beijing Time)
2. How to Participate?
Download the latest tasks from our dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/futurex-ai/Futurex-Online
Run your model on the tasks.
Email your predictions to FutureX-ai@outlook.com before the deadline.
Email subject format:
FutureX Challenge Submission — [Your Model Name][Date]
Submission requirements:
- File format: JSON (or JSONL)
- Include dataset commit/hash you used
- Required fields:
id,prediction
Note: Predictions can be in various formats including single letters (A, B, C), letter combinations (A, C, D), text in any language, numbers, or empty strings. The prediction should exactly match the format expected by the specific event question.
3. Leaderboard and Privacy
- Weekly results will be ranked and shown on a dynamic leaderboard by default.
- You can choose to keep it private or make it public.
- Downloads last month
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