question_text stringlengths 74 348 | date_close stringdate 2025-11-29 00:00:00 2026-08-31 00:00:00 | event_date stringdate 2025-11-23 00:00:00 2026-01-26 00:00:00 | resolution_criteria stringlengths 282 857 | question_type stringclasses 1
value | prediction_date stringdate 2025-11-23 00:00:00 2026-01-26 00:00:00 | correct_answer stringclasses 4
values | label_confidence float64 0.9 1 | resolution_date stringdate 2025-11-27 00:00:00 2026-07-01 00:00:00 | sample_id stringlengths 36 36 | answer_type stringclasses 1
value | answer_parser_type stringclasses 1
value | reward_function_type stringclasses 1
value | prompt listlengths 1 1 | context listlengths 1 1 | reasoning stringlengths 1.4k 11.7k | answer_sources stringlengths 207 9.46k ⌀ | is_complete bool 1
class | completed_step int64 2 2 ⌀ | multiple_choice_options null | parsed_answer stringclasses 71
values | tool_call_count int64 0 0 | all_messages stringlengths 3.32k 20.7k | rollout_id int64 0 0 | input_tokens int64 374 2.69k | output_tokens int64 272 2.5k | cost null | reward_score float64 -3.91 -0 | binary_brier_score float64 0 0.96 | binary_cross_entropy_score float64 -3.91 -0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the United States and Ukraine officially announce a bilateral agreement for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between November 23, 2025, and February 1, 2026, the White House or the Office of the President of Ukraine issues a formal statement announcing that both nations have agreed on the terms of a ceasefire to end active hostilities with Russia. A 'result practical' leading to peace as me... | null | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 3fb5d708-3227-49c5-b638-b9d5ef48c187 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US military officials in Kyiv as Europe warns against reported Russia peace plan (published on 2025-11-20 by bbc.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Senior Pentagon officials visited Kyiv to \"discuss efforts to end the war,\" including t... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability that US and Ukraine will officially announce a bilateral ceasefire agreement before Feb 1 2026. Evaluate given news. The timeframe currently Nov 23 2025. The context includes many news items about Trump's peace plan, US officials in Kyiv, talks in Switzerland, ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFSEJsJYS-sRs5D31OM2Xva6xStnara4TpdF-Q4x1XzWmhXbi4SyCZdNjtM5bpf6O_dRXiNNVw7gHUg9MNEsXzpbhIm_xbQ1TTD16oD12ZeKP1OW5MM2c5BqxOYy_qKIygTsy5SZTME6nMPNKPcHK099vAqsuvESPl7Y8BqtkctP_oKc7UMsSUkKTDNVMq2JtD1ydk4JXWeKv5f2ce45XezNBWsng==, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | true | 2 | null | 0.2 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,204 | 896 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 | -0.223144 |
By February 1, 2026, will the Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially and publicly announce a total rejection of the U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan discussed in Geneva in November 2025? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if President Zelenskyy or the Office of the President of Ukraine issues an official statement declaring that Ukraine formally refuses to proceed with or accept the specific 28-point U.S. proposal. Continuing to negotiate to 'revise' or 'improve' the plan does not constitute a rejection; t... | null | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | cdf46760-fff8-4eb7-8f93-147abd8ee524 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump pressures Ukraine to accept peace deal: Early analysis from Chatham House experts (published on 2025-11-22 by chathamhouse.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Trump pr... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to forecast whether by Feb 1 2026 Ukraine will officially and publicly announce a total rejection of the U.S.-proposed 28-point peace plan discussed in Geneva in Nov 2025.
We have context: Several news articles about pressure from Trump (US president) and US officials to accept pl... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpGyz5b6Fj7Cmu289YHHjWO30miKvcVhGc2xUljEh5r82l5v1sLHCECEcz8AtSgFFAdeLqjVowRumlesNN_Xlal8TvLrp_P9Fy6YWsmCds1DBBw51gwpL2q_hwTJ9ARutibt9wfmUj-1nFn4S-ZICg0Z9pPtuxFakry6Lr_egxGyoi6XtaiaE1SFi9bZu4XJfkFRiL4kEO5EM6Jad6, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.48 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,235 | 1,189 | null | -0.653926 | 0.2304 | -0.653926 |
Will the Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally declare that it will not sign any peace agreement that includes the ceding of territory to Russia before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues an official statement (via government website, official social media, or major international news briefing) explicitly reaffirming after November 23, 2025, that Ukraine will refuse any peace deal requiring ... | null | 2025-11-23T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | ba017c70-fce5-4300-b782-80a5a996f6cc | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Zelenskyy Ready For 'Constructive, Honest, And Prompt' Work With Trump On Peace Plan (published on 2025-11-20 by rferl.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Zelenskyy said Ukraine has received a new US-drafted peace plan and is ready to wor... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Ukrainian government under President Zelenskyy will formally declare that it will not sign any peace agreement that includes ceding of territory to Russia before March 1, 2026. The statement must be official after Nov 23 2025, explicitly reaffirming Ukr... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGfp2LkW3hh29qFUlSFZgYeyYJ2Yhh8htLf_wQgs7_KVvTfOixH7p9ecFPS0ttiTLlBmRhvYL7LJdbVy0XFYfCN8Na9dfAvHu1MdqwmT6QQ7uEir0WAuk8SCBFRJ2oSLGmmiThD9YIV7FHeP7zCUCQzVtWt0lk63RWwvm_ykS9ak0ezVFzPDjzo2leSRDpOHddn2CRH90zOxHFMutS6qcY=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.66 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,098 | 1,139 | null | -0.415515 | 0.1156 | -0.415515 |
"Will India formally transfer Sheikh Hasina to the custody of the government of Bangladesh before Ma(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to 'Yes' if, by 11:59 PM UTC on March 1, 2026, the government of India physi(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 6ef7be69-9074-4798-b636-b8fc4f030fb0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Bangladesh demands extraditio(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce probability that India will formally transfer Shei(...TRUNCATED) | null | null | null | null | 0.12 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,252 | 757 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
"Will the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation publicly announce a formal agreement to (...TRUNCATED) | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before 11:59 PM UTC on December 25, 2025, the governments (...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | be82aa9b-87ab-4ead-b3d1-f55c8917de33 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump's 28-point Ukraine plan(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Ukraine and Russia governments p(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGG-GwgnwsX1K0YOishZIuGgX97dGVjVDIna3XyJ3cFHsdvu59dcG9XPnBw9Y_GRsUf-A_l19Vx18S3K4lkOgTCTHuGctj937pGlz9tPttRwIYPSqiJ0O-a_8n6ohs7cuwHtcgBUTu2Rmv3nkeMpTFDnBcGF7xkImGIQ4h0_HkUYX-9aEqxPgy_wyNjZGFwE0mNVg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,133 | 574 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
"Will former FBI Director James Comey be re-indicted by a federal grand jury on any criminal charges(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to Yes if, after the dismissal of the initial case on November 24, 2025, a f(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-14T00:00:00 | c02a7118-b270-45f7-a724-886c0076cf8d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] In Stunning Admission, DOJ Sa(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that former FBI Director James Comey (...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFp_TNxG6rU8cWPgfdH9PAY10HHBAy5SS_hnowM6hv0o--2L6FTxuRu8VwFbw1QiKTgYfsY8D8Cin_su-4vMVAYKNZF1b7WAB-gXZ2Rgx7ffJ3xT7z-FOp9YYIrH5IcrofLNZfz5VlzPA8olzVxZRMe9yT0, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH-B_Ek4-klrji-a7zPa_TLkUpI... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,124 | 1,013 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
"Will the U.S. Department of Justice file a formal notice of appeal against Judge Cameron McGowan Cu(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a notice of appeal with(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-19T00:00:00 | df24ba7a-2ce1-4e72-aaab-03a42ca2986e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Clinton-tapped judge could to(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will file a formal notice of(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFm9vrDH0vw29XGhKoWYL_F789rZ87uTrIrttkUYaAJjlh1yR3wCE9Nl2SFiDztEWv4OY9knhqp1rdC7CzH7c51crQPxbtcf1P5ZB3eNg8072jV32kxXVnm8daA-8xmCXLMnji-sByEqBmf57PNLbogX97eFhi12LNhJKHLTSDGzhjT8r-HRvykUOeTuQh3qXQlyQYmLWUb4f6htP9v1WVq, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.63 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,110 | 1,147 | null | -0.462035 | 0.1369 | -0.462035 |
"Will Sheikh Hasina be officially extradited from India to Bangladesh on or before February 22, 2026(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-22T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "This question resolves to 'Yes' if, by the end of February 22, 2026, the government of India or Ban(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-22T00:00:00 | 6c0f8e8f-d14e-4539-821d-43f63638b601 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Sheikh Hasina gets death pena(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Sheikh Hasina will be officially(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH6fFc-pRXUWXJNv-m8lInHY09SLvXnMwcpjH7jlJ8S69Efl8CWVX0bq5nKZ0k-6lFAbk4ORLAmALS6JaWSFEpYqnR1rr2Ax2AuW2zTgcv0RKq9WCVNyMbToKF1NYHmsHVIUcSaO6xJcBRR7uxBCoPG02EX84k-Fp12zxbMJXg-3MXj0Yb7u9g6W3OYgJTriPn4-WCkfmhGpbhBZCplrlloYIigJawmSkNB5QLqkUVotYqZ5Se_lLPI3noQd... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,205 | 540 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
"Will a new indictment be filed by the United States Department of Justice against James Comey in an(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if a federal grand jury returns a new indictment, or if the Departme(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 5d3946fb-aca3-4600-b802-c138ab11fa42 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Comey Attacks Perjury and Obs(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that a new indictment will be filed b(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHfuFO6jd_iXb_V_z30tP3hX4T815j8hP2glzkapOLBzjOIf4eZLWodO-LSTLE8bvH2wonjsY-wQO7XfFaItnE9FNd3sdBmYJS5fKUkpoelUftlx2t5gpVOJ_E8mNzoPtAKsHU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH5bCckmZLZurRYY1PlM2y48eZjvns86IpCj_-Hr8Lw8fRF... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,080 | 946 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
"Will the Trump administration and the 'European Troika' (Germany, France, and the UK) issue a joint(...TRUNCATED) | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2025, a single joint(...TRUNCATED) | null | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 9d8b94b5-e89f-456e-beac-27c9cdacb502 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to p(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Full text of European counter(...TRUNCATED) | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Trump administration and Europea(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHvrJNvgQR4s9yc_LvW4jnsUnwPdHjn5WkR9BRRRg0CLCJ29ZAA7JQhBqtNdFcbUWPgTBdmnJGI0b-mitl3k-11pBylBZ8Dm8DFXe55gvRbeCgSLVe8M4OFSdGGr7ezM9ynqJkBqTmB3f4CJ8pCa-SbhCwfCUM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHg0hW3BtbhbRlBfK7L4m2s... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 2,166 | 610 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
README.md exists but content is empty.
- Downloads last month
- 48